South West Hertfordshire
East of England · County constituency
About the South West Hertfordshire constituency
South West Hertfordshire is a county constituency in the East of England. The sitting MP is Mr Gagan Mohindra (Conservative), first elected in December 2019. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 34.1% to 24.9% for the Liberal Democrats, a majority of 4,456 votes on a 67.3% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 27.2% and the Liberal Democrats on 26.9%, a margin of 0.3 points - a projected change of hands from the Conservatives.
Who lives in South West Hertfordshire? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did South West Hertfordshire vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of South West Hertfordshire
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
South West Hertfordshire within Three Rivers and Dacorum
South West Hertfordshire crosses council boundaries: Three Rivers (95%), Dacorum (5%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Three Rivers | 95% | View projection › |
| Dacorum | 5% | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abbots Langley & Bedmond | Lib Dem 30.4%vs Conservative 29.9% | May 2026 Conservative 38.2%vs Lib Dem 31.1% | Lib Dem→Conservative +3.8pp | 49.7% |
| Carpenders Park | Conservative 37.8%vs Labour 22.8% | May 2026 Conservative 38.3%vs Others 25.6% | Conservative share +0.5pp | 47.9% |
| Chorleywood North & Sarratt | Conservative 47.0%vs Lib Dem 19.6% | May 2026 Conservative 47.2%vs Reform 22.6% | Conservative share +0.1pp | 44.9% |
| Chorleywood South & Maple Cross | Conservative 32.8%vs Lib Dem 31.2% | May 2026 Lib Dem 37.1%vs Conservative 31.8% | Conservative→Lib Dem +3.5pp | 46.7% |
| Dickinsons | Lib Dem 30.4%vs Conservative 28.9% | May 2026 Green 50.8%vs Lib Dem 18.7% | Lib Dem→Green +25.5pp | 47.1% |
| Durrants | Lib Dem 33.9%vs Conservative 29.1% | May 2026 Lib Dem 52.4%vs Green 18.6% | Lib Dem share +18.5pp | 47.7% |
| Gade Valley | Lib Dem 28.4%vs Conservative 27.0% | May 2026 Lib Dem 32.8%vs Conservative 31.9% | Lib Dem share +4.3pp | 42.8% |
| Kings Langley | Conservative 37.6%vs Labour 20.4% | 2023 Conservative 53.5%vs Labour 18.4% | - | 36.5% |
| Leavesden | Conservative 29.0%vs Lib Dem 28.9% | May 2026 Lib Dem 40.5%vs Reform 24.6% | Conservative→Lib Dem +10.3pp | 37.5% |
| Moor Park & Eastbury | Conservative 49.1%vs Lib Dem 15.5% | May 2026 Conservative 58.0%vs Reform 14.8% | Conservative share +8.9pp | 39.8% |
| Oxhey Hall & Hayling | Lib Dem 28.6%vs Conservative 27.8% | May 2026 Lib Dem 36.8%vs Reform 31.7% | Lib Dem share +8.2pp | 43.5% |
| Penn & Mill End | Conservative 31.7%vs Lib Dem 27.6% | May 2026 Conservative 37.5%vs Reform 26.2% | Conservative share +5.8pp | 46.6% |
| Rickmansworth Town | Conservative 39.7%vs Lib Dem 21.6% | May 2026 Conservative 49.5%vs Lib Dem 23.9% | Conservative share +9.8pp | 49.4% |
| South Oxhey | Labour 39.4%vs Conservative 25.5% | May 2026 Conservative 35.2%vs Reform 31.5% | Labour→Conservative +14.2pp | 39.8% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for South West Hertfordshire at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won South West Hertfordshire at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | David Gauke | 11.5% | 54.2% | 27.9% | 14,920 | 72.5% |
| 2015 | Con hold | David Gauke | 16.3% | 56.9% | 10.3% | 23,263 | 71.9%-0.6 |
| 2017 | Con hold | David Gauke | 25.7% | 57.9% | 11.7% | 19,550 | 74.8%+2.9 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Gagan Mohindra 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 16.1% | 52.2% | 12.7% | 17,623 | 71.1%-3.7 |
| 2024 | Con hold | Gagan Mohindra | 20.0% | 34.1% | 24.9% | 4,456 | 67.3%-3.8 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like South West Hertfordshire
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to South West Hertfordshire. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied71.2 / 71.2vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate42.6 / 42.6vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent13.3 / 15.4vs 20.2
- ↑Graduate42.6 / 44.8vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied71.2 / 69.7vs 61.9
- ↓Leave46.2 / 45.0vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied71.2 / 73.0vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate42.6 / 44.6vs 33.7
- ↓Leave46.2 / 47.8vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied71.2 / 74.7vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate42.6 / 47.3vs 33.7
- ↓Leave46.2 / 45.0vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied71.2 / 71.9vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate42.6 / 42.3vs 33.7
- ↓Leave46.2 / 48.0vs 53.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.