Maidenhead
South East · County constituency
About the Maidenhead constituency
Maidenhead is a county constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Mr Joshua Reynolds (Liberal Democrat), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats won with 43.5% to 37.6% for the Conservatives, a majority of 2,963 votes on a 66.5% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Liberal Democrats on 35.0% and the Conservatives on 29.7%, a margin of 5.3 points.
Who lives in Maidenhead? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Maidenhead vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Maidenhead
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Maidenhead within Windsor and Maidenhead and Bracknell Forest
Maidenhead crosses council boundaries: Windsor and Maidenhead (77%), Bracknell Forest (23%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Windsor and Maidenhead | 77% |
| Bracknell Forest | 23% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belmont | Lib Dem 51.7%vs Conservative 30.7% | 2023 Lib Dem 72.2%vs Conservative 22.3% | - | 44.7% |
| Binfield North & Warfield West | Conservative 33.1%vs Lib Dem 28.7% | 2023 Conservative 54.0%vs Green 46.0% | - | - |
| Binfield South & Jennett's Park | Conservative 33.3%vs Lib Dem 27.3% | 2023 Labour 55.9%vs Conservative 44.1% | - | - |
| Bisham & Cookham | Lib Dem 54.1%vs Conservative 33.5% | 2023 Lib Dem 79.0%vs Conservative 17.9% | - | 52.6% |
| Boyn Hill | Lib Dem 44.8%vs Conservative 38.5% | 2023 Lib Dem 64.4%vs Conservative 27.5% | - | 45.2% |
| Bray | Conservative 45.5%vs Lib Dem 35.4% | 2023 Others 42.7%vs Conservative 37.6% | - | 38.9% |
| Cox Green | Lib Dem 47.1%vs Conservative 38.9% | 2023 Lib Dem 69.6%vs Conservative 24.0% | - | 46.3% |
| Furze Platt | Lib Dem 50.2%vs Conservative 33.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 66.5%vs Conservative 24.3% | - | 43.6% |
| Hurley & Walthams | Conservative 45.7%vs Lib Dem 40.2% | 2023 Lib Dem 45.9%vs Conservative 44.7% | - | 37.4% |
| Oldfield | Conservative 40.0%vs Lib Dem 36.1% | 2023 Others 55.9%vs Conservative 35.5% | - | 38.6% |
| Pinkneys Green | Lib Dem 49.1%vs Conservative 34.5% | 2023 Lib Dem 78.5%vs Conservative 14.3% | - | 43.2% |
| Riverside | Lib Dem 44.5%vs Conservative 39.8% | 2023 Lib Dem 65.0%vs Conservative 28.8% | - | 48.9% |
| St Mary's | Lib Dem 44.7%vs Conservative 35.3% | 2023 Lib Dem 66.8%vs Conservative 24.8% | - | 38.6% |
| Winkfield & Warfield East | Conservative 38.8%vs Lib Dem 36.6% | 2023 Conservative 59.0%vs Green 26.6% | - | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Maidenhead at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Maidenhead at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Theresa May | 7.1% | 59.5% | 28.2% | 16,769 | 73.7% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Theresa May | 11.9% | 65.8% | 9.9% | 29,059 | 72.6%-1.1 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Theresa May | 19.3% | 64.8% | 11.2% | 26,457 | 76.6%+4.0 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Theresa May 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 15.0% | 57.4% | 23.8% | 17,101 | 69.3%-7.3 |
| 2024 | LD gain from Con | Joshua Reynolds | 11.5% | 37.6% | 43.5% | 2,963 | 66.5%-2.8 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Maidenhead
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Maidenhead. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Graduate44.8 / 44.7vs 33.7
- ↓Leave45.0 / 44.2vs 53.2
- ↑Employed63.2 / 63.6vs 57.3
- ↑Graduate44.8 / 44.6vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied69.7 / 73.0vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent10.8 / 9.7vs 16.8
- ↑Graduate44.8 / 42.6vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied69.7 / 71.2vs 61.9
- ↓Leave45.0 / 46.2vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate44.8 / 42.3vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied69.7 / 71.9vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent10.8 / 11.1vs 16.8
- ↑Graduate44.8 / 42.6vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied69.7 / 71.2vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent10.8 / 12.3vs 16.8
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.