Altrincham and Sale West
North West · Borough constituency · Trafford borough
About the Altrincham and Sale West constituency
Altrincham and Sale West is a borough constituency in the North West. The sitting MP is Mr Connor Rand (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 40.4% to 32.3% for the Conservatives, a majority of 4,174 votes on a 69.5% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 32.8% and the Conservatives on 29.9%, a margin of 2.8 points.
Who lives in Altrincham and Sale West? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Altrincham and Sale West vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Altrincham and Sale West
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Altrincham and Sale West within Trafford
Altrincham and Sale West sits entirely within Trafford Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Trafford | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Altrincham | Labour 38.5%vs Conservative 30.6% | May 2026 Green 44.2%vs Conservative 27.9% | Labour→Green +30.7pp | 48.6% |
| Ashton upon Mersey | Labour 48.5%vs Conservative 30.8% | May 2026 Labour 34.5%vs Conservative 24.2% | Labour share -14.0pp | 55.4% |
| Bowdon | Conservative 40.8%vs Labour 33.5% | May 2026 Conservative 54.5%vs Green 29.6% | Conservative share +13.7pp | 56.3% |
| Broadheath | Labour 50.1%vs Conservative 29.9% | May 2026 Conservative 35.7%vs Labour 21.1% | Labour→Conservative +17.4pp | 53.7% |
| Hale | Labour 33.3%vs Conservative 32.8% | May 2026 Conservative 45.2%vs Green 36.6% | Labour→Conservative +19.7pp | 58.9% |
| Hale Barns & Timperley South | Conservative 38.4%vs Labour 32.9% | May 2026 Conservative 51.7%vs Lib Dem 26.2% | Conservative share +13.3pp | 54.2% |
| Manor | Labour 47.3%vs Conservative 31.5% | May 2026 Conservative 46.9%vs Reform 19.1% | Labour→Conservative +22.1pp | 50.5% |
| Timperley Central | Labour 37.4%vs Conservative 30.2% | May 2026 Lib Dem 39.0%vs Reform 24.9% | Labour→Lib Dem +26.8pp | 50.2% |
| Timperley North | Labour 37.7%vs Conservative 27.0% | May 2026 Lib Dem 48.6%vs Reform 17.7% | Labour→Lib Dem +29.3pp | 53.4% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Altrincham and Sale West at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Altrincham and Sale West at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Graham Brady | 22.4% | 48.9% | 25.5% | 11,595 | 68.4% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Graham Brady | 26.7% | 53.0% | 8.4% | 13,290 | 70.6%+2.2 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Graham Brady | 38.8% | 51.0% | 7.7% | 6,426 | 72.1%+1.5 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Graham Brady 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 36.8% | 48.0% | 11.0% | 6,139 | 74.1%+2.0 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Connor Rand | 40.4% | 32.3% | 9.2% | 4,174 | 69.5%-4.6 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Altrincham and Sale West
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Altrincham and Sale West. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Graduate48.7 / 47.3vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied74.3 / 74.7vs 61.9
- ↓Leave38.6 / 45.0vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate48.7 / 47.8vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied74.3 / 75.5vs 61.9
- ↓Leave38.6 / 42.7vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate48.7 / 51.5vs 33.7
- ↓Leave38.6 / 41.6vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied74.3 / 72.3vs 61.9
- ↑Owner-occupied74.3 / 75.4vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate48.7 / 46.2vs 33.7
- ↓Leave38.6 / 41.5vs 53.2
- ↓Leave38.6 / 37.8vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate48.7 / 51.7vs 33.7
- ↓No quals11.5 / 11.0vs 18.0
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.