Rushcliffe
East Midlands · County constituency · Rushcliffe borough
About the Rushcliffe constituency
Rushcliffe is a county constituency in the East Midlands. The sitting MP is James Naish (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 43.8% to 30.9% for the Conservatives, a majority of 7,426 votes on a 72.9% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 31.9% and Labour on 31.2%, a margin of 0.7 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Rushcliffe? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Rushcliffe vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Rushcliffe
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Rushcliffe within Rushcliffe
Rushcliffe sits entirely within Rushcliffe Council. Rushcliffe was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Rushcliffe | 100% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abbey | Labour 52.2%vs Conservative 25.7% | 2023 Labour 54.7%vs Conservative 32.8% | - | 56.3% |
| Bunny | Conservative 39.0%vs Labour 35.8% | 2023 Conservative 51.7%vs Labour 24.5% | - | 49.1% |
| Compton Acres | Labour 43.1%vs Conservative 34.1% | 2023 Conservative 54.9%vs Labour 32.9% | - | 50.5% |
| Cotgrave | Labour 42.5%vs Conservative 31.5% | 2023 Conservative 48.5%vs Labour 22.1% | - | 45.8% |
| Cropwell | Labour 40.1%vs Conservative 35.2% | 2023 Others 54.3%vs Conservative 45.7% | - | 43.7% |
| Edwalton | Labour 39.8%vs Conservative 35.9% | 2023 Conservative 64.8%vs Labour 29.5% | - | 40.2% |
| Gamston | Labour 46.3%vs Conservative 30.4% | 2023 Conservative 53.0%vs Labour 34.2% | - | 44.8% |
| Gotham | Labour 40.7%vs Conservative 34.9% | 2023 Conservative 58.7%vs Labour 36.0% | - | 48.6% |
| Keyworth & Wolds | Conservative 39.0%vs Labour 35.1% | 2023 Conservative 51.2%vs Labour 25.2% | - | 67.8% |
| Lady Bay | Labour 46.7%vs Conservative 20.1% | 2023 Green 60.8%vs Labour 29.1% | - | 50.0% |
| Leake | Labour 38.7%vs Conservative 33.5% | 2023 Independent 60.6%vs Conservative 32.1% | - | 42.9% |
| Lutterell | Labour 50.4%vs Conservative 26.5% | 2023 Conservative 39.3%vs Labour 30.9% | - | 44.6% |
| Musters | Labour 45.8%vs Conservative 24.6% | 2023 Labour 41.1%vs Lib Dem 39.0% | - | 46.3% |
| Nevile & Langar | Labour 37.5%vs Conservative 36.6% | 2023 Conservative 61.6%vs Independent 38.4% | - | 39.5% |
| Radcliffe on Trent | Labour 42.1%vs Conservative 34.3% | 2023 Conservative 46.6%vs Labour 38.8% | - | 52.0% |
| Ruddington | Labour 50.1%vs Conservative 25.6% | 2023 Labour 61.6%vs Conservative 33.2% | - | 46.3% |
| Soar Valley | Labour 39.8%vs Conservative 35.0% | 2023 Conservative 54.7%vs Others 27.0% | - | 44.4% |
| Tollerton | Labour 38.5%vs Conservative 38.3% | 2023 Conservative 54.4%vs Labour 33.8% | - | 47.9% |
| Trent Bridge | Labour 57.0%vs Conservative 20.2% | 2023 Labour 64.7%vs Conservative 22.2% | - | 35.5% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Rushcliffe at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Rushcliffe at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Ken Clarke | 20.7% | 51.2% | 21.7% | 15,811 | 73.6% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Kenneth Clarke | 26.3% | 51.4% | 5.0% | 13,829 | 75.3%+1.7 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Kenneth Clarke | 38.1% | 51.8% | 4.7% | 8,010 | 78.0%+2.7 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Ruth Edwards 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 35.0% | 47.3% | 16.0% | 7,354 | 78.1%+0.1 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | James Naish | 43.8% | 30.9% | 5.4% | 7,426 | 72.9%-5.2 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Rushcliffe
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Rushcliffe. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied75.4 / 73.8vs 61.9
- ↓Leave41.5 / 39.1vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate46.2 / 44.4vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied75.4 / 75.5vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate46.2 / 47.8vs 33.7
- ↓Leave41.5 / 42.7vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied75.4 / 75.7vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate46.2 / 43.5vs 33.7
- ↓No quals11.8 / 11.8vs 18.0
- ↑Owner-occupied75.4 / 79.4vs 61.9
- ↓Leave41.5 / 41.0vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate46.2 / 51.6vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied75.4 / 75.2vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate46.2 / 43.5vs 33.7
- ↓Social rent8.5 / 9.2vs 16.8
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.