Kenilworth and Southam
West Midlands · County constituency
About the Kenilworth and Southam constituency
Kenilworth and Southam is a county constituency in the West Midlands. The sitting MP is Sir Jeremy Wright (Conservative), first elected in May 2005. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 36.4% to 24.1% for Labour, a majority of 6,574 votes on a 71.2% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 34.1% and Reform UK on 21.3%, a margin of 12.9 points.
Who lives in Kenilworth and Southam? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Kenilworth and Southam vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Kenilworth and Southam
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Kenilworth and Southam within Warwick and Stratford-on-Avon and 1 other council
Kenilworth and Southam crosses council boundaries: Warwick (46%), Stratford-on-Avon (44%), Rugby (11%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Warwick | 46% | — |
| Stratford-on-Avon | 44% | — |
| Rugby | 11% | View projection › |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep 2025 | Kenilworth Park Hill | Grn HOLD | Grn 41% Con 24% Ref 18% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bishop's Itchington, Fenny Compton & Napton | Conservative 37.9%vs Lib Dem 25.5% | 2023 Lib Dem 48.6%vs Conservative 38.0% | - | 40.1% |
| Budbrooke | Conservative 37.1%vs Labour 28.0% | 2023 Conservative 44.5%vs Labour 20.3% | - | 70.7% |
| Cubbington & Leek Wootton | Conservative 32.6%vs Labour 27.5% | 2023 Lib Dem 40.2%vs Conservative 38.4% | - | 56.6% |
| Dunsmore | Conservative 36.6%vs Labour 23.8% | May 2026 Lib Dem 30.3%vs Reform 29.3% | Conservative→Lib Dem +11.9pp | 49.4% |
| Gaydon, Kineton & Upper Lighthorne | Conservative 39.9%vs Labour 28.4% | 2023 Conservative 57.3%vs Green 17.9% | - | 36.9% |
| Harbury | Conservative 41.4%vs Lib Dem 22.4% | 2023 Lib Dem 47.5%vs Independent 38.7% | - | 42.4% |
| Kenilworth Abbey & Arden | Conservative 38.0%vs Labour 21.1% | 2023 Green 46.5%vs Conservative 39.9% | - | 37.4% |
| Kenilworth Park Hill | Conservative 33.1%vs Labour 24.8% | 2023 Green 51.8%vs Conservative 31.4% | - | 40.7% |
| Kenilworth St John's | Conservative 29.2%vs Labour 26.0% | 2023 Lib Dem 53.8%vs Conservative 30.8% | - | 45.2% |
| Leam Valley | Conservative 40.2%vs Labour 23.4% | 2023 Conservative 57.5%vs Labour 20.6% | - | 42.3% |
| Southam East, Central & Stockton | Conservative 41.0%vs Labour 26.4% | 2023 Conservative 64.7%vs Lib Dem 25.7% | - | 37.1% |
| Southam North & Long Itchington | Lib Dem 31.7%vs Conservative 31.2% | 2023 Lib Dem 64.7%vs Conservative 22.0% | - | 33.2% |
| Southam South | Conservative 42.6%vs Labour 26.5% | 2023 Lib Dem 47.1%vs Conservative 41.1% | - | 29.1% |
| Southam West | Labour 32.8%vs Conservative 32.7% | 2023 Independent 69.7%vs Lib Dem 19.6% | - | 30.9% |
| Tysoe | Conservative 43.0%vs Lib Dem 23.3% | 2023 Conservative 55.1%vs Lib Dem 23.0% | - | 41.9% |
| Wellesbourne East & Rural | Conservative 35.9%vs Lib Dem 30.4% | 2023 Lib Dem 52.3%vs Conservative 35.8% | - | 40.5% |
| Wellesbourne North & Rural | Conservative 39.1%vs Lib Dem 27.8% | 2023 Conservative 46.3%vs Lib Dem 40.0% | - | 42.3% |
| Wellesbourne South | Conservative 37.0%vs Lib Dem 27.8% | 2023 Lib Dem 52.9%vs Conservative 36.1% | - | 42.6% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Kenilworth and Southam at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Kenilworth and Southam at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Jeremy Wright | 14.3% | 53.6% | 27.7% | 12,552 | 75.2% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Jeremy Wright | 15.3% | 58.4% | 10.1% | 21,002 | 76.3%+1.1 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Jeremy Wright | 25.6% | 60.8% | 9.6% | 18,076 | 77.4%+1.1 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Jeremy Wright 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 19.0% | 59.0% | 16.9% | 22,303 | 78.1%+0.7 |
| 2024 | Con hold | Jeremy Wright | 24.0% | 36.4% | 19.6% | 6,574 | 71.2%-6.9 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Kenilworth and Southam
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Kenilworth and Southam. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied75.7 / 74.5vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate43.5 / 45.1vs 33.7
- ↓Leave46.2 / 45.6vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied75.7 / 72.5vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate43.5 / 42.9vs 33.7
- ↓Leave46.2 / 45.0vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate43.5 / 44.2vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied75.7 / 72.0vs 61.9
- ↓Leave46.2 / 45.3vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied75.7 / 73.3vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent10.4 / 11.0vs 16.8
- ↓Private rent12.5 / 14.2vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied75.7 / 75.2vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate43.5 / 43.1vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent12.5 / 12.9vs 20.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.