Mid Buckinghamshire
South East · County constituency · Buckinghamshire borough
About the Mid Buckinghamshire constituency
Mid Buckinghamshire is a county constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Greg Smith (Conservative), first elected in December 2019. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 37.4% to 26.5% for the Liberal Democrats, a majority of 5,872 votes on a 71.3% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 34.8% and Reform UK on 23.3%, a margin of 11.5 points.
Who lives in Mid Buckinghamshire? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Mid Buckinghamshire vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Mid Buckinghamshire
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Mid Buckinghamshire within Buckinghamshire
Mid Buckinghamshire sits entirely within Buckinghamshire Council. Buckinghamshire was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Buckinghamshire | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | Bernwood | LD GAIN from Con | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernwood | Conservative 35.1%vs Lib Dem 28.1% | 2021 Conservative 38.9%vs Green 35.4% | - | 58.3% |
| Chiltern Ridges | Lib Dem 46.8%vs Conservative 31.8% | 2021 Conservative 41.5%vs Lib Dem 37.4% | - | 52.3% |
| Great Missenden | Conservative 37.4%vs Lib Dem 29.4% | 2021 Conservative 57.0%vs Lib Dem 22.4% | - | 54.6% |
| Grendon Underwood | Conservative 39.7%vs Lib Dem 22.4% | 2021 Conservative 58.6%vs Lib Dem 11.4% | - | 54.6% |
| Ridgeway East | Conservative 37.9%vs Lib Dem 27.3% | 2021 Conservative 70.4%vs Labour 10.9% | - | 55.1% |
| Ridgeway West | Conservative 38.8%vs Lib Dem 28.7% | 2021 Conservative 63.0%vs Lib Dem 28.8% | - | 41.4% |
| Stone and Waddesdon | Conservative 38.2%vs Labour 21.0% | 2021 Conservative 50.7%vs Labour 19.3% | - | 37.3% |
| The Risboroughs | Conservative 37.4%vs Lib Dem 24.4% | 2021 Conservative 53.0%vs Independent 28.8% | - | 44.1% |
| Wendover, Halton and Stoke Mandeville | Conservative 36.2%vs Lib Dem 25.5% | 2021 Conservative 46.5%vs Green 17.9% | - | 54.4% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Mid Buckinghamshire at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Mid Buckinghamshire at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Spk gain from Con | John Bercow Buckingham MP | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12,529 | 64.5% |
| 2015predecessor | Spk hold | John Bercow Buckingham MP | 0% | 0% | 0% | 22,942 | 69.3%+4.8 |
| 2017predecessor | Spk hold | John Bercow Buckingham MP | 0% | 0% | 0% | 25,725 | 66.2%-3.1 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Greg Smith Buckingham MP, pre-review boundary | 15.3% | 61.5% | 19.7% | 22,648 | 75.1% |
| 2024 | Con hold | Greg Smith | 17.0% | 37.3% | 26.5% | 5,872 | 71.3%-3.8 |
Mid Buckinghamshire was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Buckingham (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Mid Buckinghamshire
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Mid Buckinghamshire. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied75.2 / 75.2vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate43.1 / 43.5vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent12.9 / 13.7vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied75.2 / 73.3vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent10.6 / 11.0vs 16.8
- ↓Private rent12.9 / 14.2vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied75.2 / 71.9vs 61.9
- ↓No quals11.6 / 11.3vs 18.0
- ↑Graduate43.1 / 40.4vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied75.2 / 72.5vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate43.1 / 42.9vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent12.9 / 13.9vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied75.2 / 75.7vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate43.1 / 43.5vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent12.9 / 12.5vs 20.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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