Farnham and Bordon
South East · County constituency
About the Farnham and Bordon constituency
Farnham and Bordon is a county constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Gregory Stafford (Conservative), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 35.8% to 33.2% for the Liberal Democrats, a majority of 1,349 votes on a 69.8% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 29.9% and the Liberal Democrats on 28.4%, a margin of 1.5 points.
Who lives in Farnham and Bordon? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Farnham and Bordon vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Farnham and Bordon
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Farnham and Bordon within Waverley and East Hampshire
Farnham and Bordon crosses council boundaries: Waverley (64%), East Hampshire (36%). None of the constituent district councils were in the 2026 election cycle, but the Hampshire County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Waverley | 64% |
| East Hampshire | 36% |
Hampshire County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liphook, Headley & Grayshott | Con | Con 37% Ref 25% LD 25% | 48.9% |
| Whitehill, Bordon & Lindford | Whitehill & Bordon Community Party | Whitehill & Bordon Community Party 66% Ref 18% Con 8% | 41.5% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Jul 2026 | Haslemere West | LD HOLD | LD 59% Grn 17% Con 15% |
| 23 Apr 2024 | Farnham Castle | Local HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bramshott & Liphook | Conservative 43.3%vs Lib Dem 30.3% | 2023 Conservative 48.8%vs Lib Dem 20.8% | - | 36.4% |
| Farnham Bourne | Conservative 41.9%vs Lib Dem 27.0% | 2023 Conservative 45.1%vs Others 42.6% | - | 52.4% |
| Farnham Castle | Lib Dem 32.9%vs Conservative 31.2% | 2023 Others 60.2%vs Labour 21.6% | - | 37.0% |
| Farnham Firgrove | Conservative 36.0%vs Lib Dem 32.6% | 2023 Others 65.1%vs Labour 17.5% | - | 47.5% |
| Farnham Heath End | Conservative 32.2%vs Lib Dem 31.1% | 2023 Others 67.4%vs Conservative 18.0% | - | - |
| Farnham Moor Park | Conservative 35.3%vs Lib Dem 33.0% | 2023 Others 41.8%vs Lib Dem 29.6% | - | 53.3% |
| Farnham North West | Conservative 32.1%vs Lib Dem 29.8% | 2023 Others 66.9%vs Conservative 19.1% | - | - |
| Farnham Rowledge | Conservative 36.6%vs Lib Dem 28.4% | 2023 Others 59.9%vs Conservative 28.1% | - | - |
| Farnham Weybourne | Lib Dem 40.0%vs Conservative 27.3% | 2023 Others 41.7%vs Lib Dem 35.8% | - | - |
| Grayshott | Conservative 42.5%vs Lib Dem 33.2% | 2023 Conservative 52.8%vs Lib Dem 47.2% | - | 34.1% |
| Haslemere East | Lib Dem 38.5%vs Conservative 35.8% | 2023 Conservative 45.5%vs Lib Dem 35.4% | - | - |
| Haslemere West | Lib Dem 47.5%vs Conservative 27.1% | 2023 Lib Dem 68.8%vs Conservative 23.4% | - | - |
| Headley | Conservative 39.3%vs Lib Dem 31.2% | 2023 Conservative 64.2%vs Lib Dem 20.9% | - | 44.7% |
| Hindhead & Beacon Hill | Lib Dem 38.8%vs Conservative 36.2% | 2023 Lib Dem 56.1%vs Conservative 43.9% | - | - |
| Lindford | Conservative 39.2%vs Lib Dem 28.8% | 2023 Others 69.7%vs Conservative 22.9% | - | 33.7% |
| Western Commons | Conservative 38.5%vs Lib Dem 31.3% | 2023 Independent 38.8%vs Conservative 37.9% | - | - |
| Whitehill Chase | Lib Dem 31.4%vs Conservative 30.1% | 2023 Others 69.9%vs Conservative 16.3% | - | 26.9% |
| Whitehill Hogmoor & Greatham | Conservative 35.0%vs Lib Dem 31.6% | 2023 Others 53.5%vs Conservative 24.6% | - | 31.8% |
| Whitehill Pinewood | Lib Dem 33.9%vs Conservative 28.9% | 2023 Others 67.5%vs Independent 15.3% | - | 25.9% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Farnham and Bordon at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Farnham and Bordon at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con hold | Jeremy Hunt South West Surrey MP | 6.0% | 58.7% | 30.2% | 16,318 | 74.8% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | Jeremy Hunt South West Surrey MP | 9.5% | 59.9% | 6.3% | 28,556 | 73.7%-1.1 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | Jeremy Hunt South West Surrey MP | 12.6% | 55.7% | 9.9% | 21,590 | 77.4%+3.7 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Jeremy Hunt South West Surrey MP, pre-review boundary | 6.8% | 59.4% | 32.8% | 13,577 | 70.1% |
| 2024 | Con hold | Greg Stafford | 13.8% | 35.7% | 33.2% | 1,349 | 69.8%-0.3 |
Farnham and Bordon was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat South West Surrey (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Farnham and Bordon
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Farnham and Bordon. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied72.5 / 72.0vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate42.9 / 44.2vs 33.7
- ↓Leave45.0 / 45.3vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied72.5 / 71.9vs 61.9
- ↓Leave45.0 / 46.4vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate42.9 / 40.4vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied72.5 / 72.6vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate42.9 / 44.8vs 33.7
- ↓Leave45.0 / 43.1vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied72.5 / 75.7vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate42.9 / 43.5vs 33.7
- ↓Leave45.0 / 46.2vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied72.5 / 73.3vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent13.9 / 14.2vs 20.2
- ↑Graduate42.9 / 39.6vs 33.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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