Godalming and Ash
South East · County constituency
About the Godalming and Ash constituency
Godalming and Ash is a county constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Sir Jeremy Hunt (Conservative), first elected in May 2005. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 42.6% to 41.0% for the Liberal Democrats, a majority of 891 votes on a 72.1% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 35.3% and the Liberal Democrats on 33.7%, a margin of 1.6 points.
Who lives in Godalming and Ash? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Godalming and Ash vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Godalming and Ash
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Godalming and Ash within Waverley and Guildford
Godalming and Ash crosses council boundaries: Waverley (66%), Guildford (34%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Waverley | 66% |
| Guildford | 34% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Sep 2024 | Godalming Binscombe & Charterhouse | Con GAIN from Lab | — |
| 9 May 2024 | Milford & Witley | LD HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfold, Dunsfold & Hascombe | Conservative 46.8%vs Lib Dem 39.3% | 2023 Conservative 57.0%vs Lib Dem 22.3% | - | - |
| Ash South | Lib Dem 41.4%vs Conservative 36.9% | 2023 Others 46.9%vs Lib Dem 34.0% | - | 33.8% |
| Ash Vale | Conservative 42.2%vs Lib Dem 40.1% | 2023 Lib Dem 67.8%vs Conservative 32.2% | - | 33.9% |
| Ash Wharf | Conservative 43.3%vs Lib Dem 38.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 48.8%vs Conservative 31.7% | - | 34.9% |
| Bramley & Wonersh | Conservative 47.1%vs Lib Dem 39.0% | 2023 Conservative 56.1%vs Lib Dem 26.7% | - | - |
| Chiddingfold | Lib Dem 52.2%vs Conservative 33.0% | 2023 Lib Dem 75.1%vs Conservative 24.9% | - | - |
| Cranleigh East | Lib Dem 42.5%vs Conservative 41.4% | 2023 Lib Dem 64.6%vs Conservative 31.3% | - | 44.0% |
| Cranleigh West | Conservative 45.0%vs Lib Dem 40.4% | 2023 Lib Dem 56.0%vs Conservative 37.6% | - | 42.3% |
| Elstead & Peper Harow | Lib Dem 46.5%vs Conservative 38.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 60.9%vs Conservative 39.1% | - | - |
| Godalming Binscombe & Charterhouse | Lib Dem 44.9%vs Conservative 36.7% | 2023 Conservative 42.9%vs Lib Dem 21.1% | - | - |
| Godalming Central & Ockford | Lib Dem 46.5%vs Conservative 36.1% | 2023 Lib Dem 72.1%vs Conservative 27.9% | - | 31.6% |
| Godalming Farncombe & Catteshall | Lib Dem 46.1%vs Conservative 36.4% | 2023 Lib Dem 41.4%vs Conservative 30.9% | - | 60.2% |
| Godalming Holloway | Conservative 44.4%vs Lib Dem 38.7% | 2023 Conservative 44.8%vs Lib Dem 23.9% | - | 90.4% |
| Milford & Witley | Conservative 41.6%vs Lib Dem 41.0% | 2023 Conservative 47.3%vs Independent 21.0% | - | - |
| Pilgrims | Conservative 53.3%vs Lib Dem 30.0% | 2023 Conservative 57.4%vs Others 21.6% | - | 39.3% |
| Shalford | Conservative 44.6%vs Lib Dem 40.1% | 2023 Lib Dem 47.8%vs Conservative 26.5% | - | 48.4% |
| Tillingbourne | Conservative 47.6%vs Lib Dem 37.8% | 2023 Conservative 42.6%vs Lib Dem 42.1% | - | 44.9% |
| Western Commons | Conservative 38.5%vs Lib Dem 31.3% | 2023 Independent 38.8%vs Conservative 37.9% | - | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Godalming and Ash at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Godalming and Ash at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con hold | Jeremy Hunt South West Surrey MP | 6.0% | 58.7% | 30.2% | 16,318 | 74.8% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | Jeremy Hunt South West Surrey MP | 9.5% | 59.9% | 6.3% | 28,556 | 73.7%-1.1 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | Jeremy Hunt South West Surrey MP | 12.6% | 55.7% | 9.9% | 21,590 | 77.4%+3.7 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Jeremy Hunt South West Surrey MP, pre-review boundary | 8.9% | 53.4% | 34.1% | 10,720 | 78.0% |
| 2024 | Con hold | Jeremy Hunt | 5.0% | 42.6% | 41.0% | 891 | 72.1%-5.9 |
Godalming and Ash was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat South West Surrey (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Godalming and Ash
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Godalming and Ash. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied72.0 / 72.5vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate44.2 / 42.9vs 33.7
- ↓Leave45.3 / 45.0vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate44.2 / 44.8vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied72.0 / 72.6vs 61.9
- ↓Leave45.3 / 43.1vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied72.0 / 72.4vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3523.9 / 23.2vs 30.2
- ↑Graduate44.2 / 40.6vs 33.7
- ↑Graduate44.2 / 45.1vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied72.0 / 74.5vs 61.9
- ↓Leave45.3 / 45.6vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate44.2 / 43.5vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied72.0 / 75.7vs 61.9
- ↓Leave45.3 / 46.2vs 53.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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