Tatton
North West · County constituency
About the Tatton constituency
Tatton is a county constituency in the North West. The sitting MP is Esther McVey (Conservative), first elected in June 2017. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 38.4% to 36.3% for Labour, a majority of 1,136 votes on a 68.3% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 34.9% and Labour on 28.2%, a margin of 6.7 points.
Who lives in Tatton? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Tatton vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Tatton
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Tatton within Cheshire East and Cheshire West and Chester and 1 other council
Tatton crosses council boundaries: Cheshire East (70%), Cheshire West and Chester (18%), Warrington (12%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Cheshire East | 70% |
| Cheshire West and Chester | 18% |
| Warrington | 12% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Sep 2025 | Wilmslow Lacey Green | Con GAIN from Local | Con 30% Lab 24% Ref 23% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alderley Edge | Labour 44.1%vs Conservative 30.2% | 2023 Others 79.0%vs Conservative 14.1% | - | 38.3% |
| Chelford | Conservative 45.3%vs Labour 32.3% | 2023 Conservative 66.0%vs Lib Dem 19.9% | - | 35.9% |
| Handforth | Labour 42.6%vs Conservative 30.4% | 2023 Independent 64.2%vs Labour 15.5% | - | 37.7% |
| High Legh | Conservative 42.1%vs Labour 34.8% | 2023 Conservative 63.0%vs Lib Dem 32.9% | - | 37.7% |
| Knutsford | Conservative 38.3%vs Labour 37.9% | 2023 Conservative 48.9%vs Labour 22.4% | - | 49.9% |
| Lymm North and Thelwall | Labour 37.0%vs Conservative 29.5% | 2024 Lib Dem 66.0%vs Conservative 24.5% | - | 37.0% |
| Lymm South | Conservative 39.9%vs Labour 31.1% | 2024 Lib Dem 55.0%vs Conservative 32.9% | - | 39.0% |
| Marbury | Conservative 40.6%vs Labour 32.4% | 2023 Conservative 44.8%vs Lib Dem 41.6% | - | 39.2% |
| Mobberley | Conservative 51.5%vs Labour 25.9% | 2023 Conservative 73.0%vs Labour 16.9% | - | 34.8% |
| Shakerley | Conservative 43.2%vs Labour 35.6% | 2023 Conservative 49.5%vs Labour 27.4% | - | 31.1% |
| Wilmslow Dean Row | Labour 39.4%vs Conservative 34.9% | 2023 Others 53.4%vs Conservative 36.5% | - | 32.9% |
| Wilmslow East | Labour 38.9%vs Conservative 35.9% | 2023 Others 64.0%vs Conservative 29.5% | - | 39.8% |
| Wilmslow Lacey Green | Labour 38.1%vs Conservative 36.9% | 2023 Others 47.5%vs Conservative 38.2% | - | 32.7% |
| Wilmslow West and Chorley | Labour 40.3%vs Conservative 36.1% | 2023 Others 53.1%vs Conservative 31.0% | - | 43.3% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Tatton at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Tatton at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | George Osborne | 17.3% | 54.6% | 22.6% | 14,487 | 67.8% |
| 2015 | Con hold | George Osborne | 18.3% | 58.6% | 8.5% | 18,241 | 69.7%+1.9 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Esther McVey | 28.5% | 58.6% | 9.0% | 14,787 | 72.4%+2.7 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Esther McVey 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 22.5% | 57.3% | 16.2% | 19,281 | 73.3%+0.9 |
| 2024 | Con hold | Esther McVey | 36.3% | 38.4% | 8.9% | 1,136 | 68.3%-5.0 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Tatton
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Tatton. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied74.5 / 75.7vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate45.1 / 43.5vs 33.7
- ↓Leave45.6 / 46.2vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate45.1 / 44.8vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied74.5 / 72.6vs 61.9
- ↓Leave45.6 / 43.1vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate45.1 / 44.2vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied74.5 / 72.0vs 61.9
- ↓Leave45.6 / 45.3vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied74.5 / 72.5vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate45.1 / 42.9vs 33.7
- ↓Leave45.6 / 45.0vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied74.5 / 72.4vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3521.9 / 23.2vs 30.2
- ↑Graduate45.1 / 40.6vs 33.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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