Henley and Thame
South East · County constituency · South Oxfordshire borough
About the Henley and Thame constituency
Henley and Thame is a county constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Freddie van Mierlo (Liberal Democrat), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats won with 45.0% to 33.2% for the Conservatives, a majority of 6,267 votes on a 72.1% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Liberal Democrats on 38.2% and the Conservatives on 26.9%, a margin of 11.3 points.
Who lives in Henley and Thame? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Henley and Thame vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Henley and Thame
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Henley and Thame within South Oxfordshire
Henley and Thame sits entirely within South Oxfordshire Council. South Oxfordshire was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| South Oxfordshire | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 May 2025 | Watlington | LD HOLD | LD 46% Con 40% Grn 12% |
| 1 May 2025 | Wheatley | LD HOLD | LD 47% Con 35% Grn 12% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benson & Crowmarsh | Lib Dem 50.6%vs Conservative 29.5% | 2023 Lib Dem 34.2%vs Green 33.0% | - | 59.8% |
| Berinsfield | Lib Dem 42.9%vs Conservative 31.3% | 2023 Green 80.0%vs Conservative 20.0% | - | 32.4% |
| Chalgrove | Lib Dem 59.9%vs Conservative 21.4% | 2023 Lib Dem 86.3%vs Conservative 13.7% | - | 37.4% |
| Chinnor | Lib Dem 43.8%vs Conservative 32.9% | 2023 Conservative 42.7%vs Lib Dem 28.9% | - | 50.8% |
| Forest Hill & Holton | Lib Dem 52.7%vs Conservative 28.0% | 2023 Lib Dem 71.9%vs Conservative 28.1% | - | 42.3% |
| Garsington & Horspath | Lib Dem 44.4%vs Conservative 34.8% | 2023 Lib Dem 38.9%vs Conservative 24.1% | - | 37.5% |
| Goring | Lib Dem 51.6%vs Conservative 29.2% | 2023 Lib Dem 73.3%vs Conservative 26.7% | - | 47.1% |
| Haseley Brook | Lib Dem 46.0%vs Conservative 34.9% | 2023 Lib Dem 59.7%vs Conservative 40.3% | - | 37.4% |
| Henley-on-Thames | Conservative 41.3%vs Lib Dem 34.4% | 2023 Others 57.4%vs Conservative 27.6% | - | 42.9% |
| Kidmore End & Whitchurch | Lib Dem 41.3%vs Conservative 32.7% | 2023 Green 62.5%vs Conservative 37.5% | - | 40.4% |
| Sonning Common | Lib Dem 43.6%vs Conservative 34.1% | 2023 Lib Dem 55.9%vs Conservative 44.1% | - | 38.5% |
| Thame | Lib Dem 48.2%vs Conservative 27.9% | 2023 Lib Dem 63.0%vs Conservative 29.1% | - | 35.1% |
| Watlington | Lib Dem 48.3%vs Conservative 30.7% | 2023 Lib Dem 69.6%vs Conservative 30.4% | - | 40.9% |
| Wheatley | Lib Dem 51.1%vs Conservative 26.3% | 2023 Lib Dem 66.5%vs Conservative 33.5% | - | 35.5% |
| Woodcote & Rotherfield | Conservative 45.9%vs Lib Dem 35.0% | 2023 Green 58.4%vs Conservative 38.6% | - | 39.5% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Henley and Thame at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Henley and Thame at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con hold | John Howell Henley MP | 10.9% | 56.2% | 25.2% | 16,588 | 73.2% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | John Howell Henley MP | 12.5% | 58.5% | 11.2% | 25,375 | 70.9%-2.3 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | John Howell Henley MP | 20.1% | 59.1% | 14.9% | 22,294 | 76.1%+5.2 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | John Howell Henley MP, pre-review boundary | 8.9% | 54.5% | 32.4% | 11,901 | 76.2% |
| 2024 | LD gain from Con | Freddie Van Mierlo | 6.7% | 33.2% | 45.0% | 6,267 | 72.1%-4.1 |
Henley and Thame was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Henley (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Henley and Thame
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Henley and Thame. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Graduate44.8 / 44.2vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied72.6 / 72.0vs 61.9
- ↓Leave43.1 / 45.3vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied72.6 / 72.5vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate44.8 / 42.9vs 33.7
- ↓Leave43.1 / 45.0vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate44.8 / 45.1vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied72.6 / 74.5vs 61.9
- ↓Leave43.1 / 45.6vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied72.6 / 75.7vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate44.8 / 43.5vs 33.7
- ↓Leave43.1 / 46.2vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied72.6 / 72.4vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3523.1 / 23.2vs 30.2
- ↑Graduate44.8 / 40.6vs 33.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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