Dorking and Horley
South East · County constituency
About the Dorking and Horley constituency
Dorking and Horley is a county constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Chris Coghlan (Liberal Democrat), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats won with 41.9% to 31.1% for the Conservatives, a majority of 5,391 votes on a 69.7% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Liberal Democrats on 35.7% and Reform UK on 25.7%, a margin of 10.0 points.
Who lives in Dorking and Horley? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Dorking and Horley vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Dorking and Horley
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Dorking and Horley within Mole Valley and Reigate and Banstead and 1 other council
Dorking and Horley crosses council boundaries: Mole Valley (66%), Reigate and Banstead (32%), Waverley (2%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Mole Valley | 66% |
| Reigate and Banstead | 32% |
| Waverley | 2% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Jul 2025 | Bookham East & Eastwick Park | LD HOLD | LD 56% Con 20% Ref 20% |
| 22 Mar 2025 | Holmwoods & Beare Green | LD HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookham East & Eastwick Park | Lib Dem 48.8%vs Conservative 30.8% | 2024 Lib Dem 62.6%vs Conservative 30.5% | - | 47.0% |
| Bookham West | Lib Dem 45.4%vs Conservative 27.7% | 2024 Lib Dem 60.6%vs Conservative 27.7% | - | 41.0% |
| Brockham, Betchworth, Buckland, Box Hill & Headley | Lib Dem 43.8%vs Conservative 34.2% | 2024 Lib Dem 50.2%vs Conservative 29.4% | - | 41.0% |
| Capel, Leigh, Newdigate & Charlwood | Lib Dem 43.5%vs Conservative 32.6% | 2024 Lib Dem 43.8%vs Conservative 35.6% | - | 39.0% |
| Dorking North | Lib Dem 48.5%vs Conservative 26.1% | 2024 Lib Dem 49.6%vs Green 25.4% | - | 44.0% |
| Dorking South | Lib Dem 47.1%vs Conservative 28.9% | 2024 Lib Dem 58.8%vs Conservative 16.3% | - | 38.0% |
| Ewhurst & Ellens Green | Lib Dem 45.2%vs Conservative 39.5% | 2023 Lib Dem 51.2%vs Conservative 41.8% | - | - |
| Fetcham | Lib Dem 47.1%vs Conservative 30.6% | 2024 Lib Dem 58.3%vs Conservative 31.3% | - | 40.0% |
| Holmwoods & Beare Green | Lib Dem 45.4%vs Conservative 32.7% | 2024 Lib Dem 45.4%vs Conservative 30.0% | - | 37.0% |
| Horley Central & South | Conservative 33.1%vs Lib Dem 32.0% | 2024 Conservative 33.3%vs Green 25.4% | - | 31.5% |
| Horley East & Salfords | Conservative 31.9%vs Lib Dem 31.8% | 2024 Green 42.9%vs Conservative 34.1% | - | 35.9% |
| Horley West & Sidlow | Lib Dem 32.5%vs Conservative 31.5% | 2024 Lib Dem 40.2%vs Conservative 27.8% | - | 32.0% |
| Mickleham, Westcott & Okewood | Lib Dem 44.8%vs Conservative 29.9% | 2024 Lib Dem 57.0%vs Conservative 29.8% | - | 39.0% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Dorking and Horley at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Dorking and Horley at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con hold | Paul Beresford Mole Valley MP | 7.0% | 57.5% | 28.7% | 15,653 | 75.1% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | Paul Beresford Mole Valley MP | 8.3% | 60.6% | 14.5% | 25,453 | 74.5%-0.6 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | Paul Beresford Mole Valley MP | 13.9% | 61.9% | 19.3% | 24,137 | 76.1%+1.6 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Paul Beresford Mole Valley MP, pre-review boundary | 9.9% | 51.2% | 32.1% | 10,381 | 77.5% |
| 2024 | LD gain from Con | Chris Coghlan | 8.1% | 31.1% | 41.9% | 5,391 | 69.7%-7.8 |
Dorking and Horley was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Mole Valley (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Dorking and Horley
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Dorking and Horley. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied73.3 / 71.9vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate39.6 / 40.4vs 33.7
- ↓Social rent11.0 / 11.3vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied73.3 / 74.6vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3523.7 / 23.5vs 30.2
- ↓Social rent11.0 / 9.6vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied73.3 / 72.4vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3523.7 / 23.2vs 30.2
- ↑Graduate39.6 / 40.6vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied73.3 / 75.2vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent11.0 / 10.6vs 16.8
- ↓Private rent14.2 / 12.9vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied73.3 / 72.7vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3523.7 / 23.1vs 30.2
- ↓Private rent14.2 / 13.7vs 20.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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