East Grinstead and Uckfield
South East · County constituency
About the East Grinstead and Uckfield constituency
East Grinstead and Uckfield is a county constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Mims Davies (Conservative), first elected in May 2015. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 38.3% to 21.5% for the Liberal Democrats, a majority of 8,480 votes on a 66.8% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 28.3% and Reform UK on 20.7%, a margin of 7.6 points.
Who lives in East Grinstead and Uckfield? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did East Grinstead and Uckfield vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of East Grinstead and Uckfield
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
East Grinstead and Uckfield within Mid Sussex and Wealden and 1 other council
East Grinstead and Uckfield crosses council boundaries: Mid Sussex (57%), Wealden (33%), Lewes (10%). None of the constituent district councils were in the 2026 election cycle, but East Sussex County Council and West Sussex County Council elections were held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Mid Sussex | 57% |
| Wealden | 33% |
| Lewes | 10% |
East Sussex County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chailey | Grn | Grn 38% Ref 24% Con 24% | 53.1% |
| Maresfield & Buxted | Grn | Grn 33% Con 33% Ref 26% | 56.8% |
| Uckfield North | LD | LD 32% Ref 31% Con 22% | 48.5% |
| Uckfield South with Framfield | Ref | Ref 33% Con 25% LD 21% | 50.9% |
West Sussex County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| East Grinstead Meridian | Con | Con 31% Ref 30% Grn 16% | 45.3% |
| East Grinstead South & Ashurst Wood | Con | Con 43% Ref 25% LD 17% | 45.4% |
| Imberdown | Ref | Ref 31% Con 25% Independent 25% | 49.2% |
| Worth Forest | Ref | Ref 36% Con 25% Grn 15% | 45.8% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct 2024 | Wivelsfield | Grn HOLD | — |
| 7 Apr 2024 | Uckfield New Town | Ind HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ardingly, Balcombe & Turners Hill | Conservative 34.5%vs Labour 22.8% | 2023 Green 38.1%vs Conservative 32.2% | - | 43.6% |
| Ashurst Wood & East Grinstead South | Conservative 47.0%vs Labour 20.0% | 2023 Conservative 64.0%vs Green 20.1% | - | - |
| Buxted | Conservative 38.5%vs Lib Dem 23.2% | 2023 Green 60.2%vs Conservative 39.8% | - | 39.0% |
| Chailey, Barcombe & Hamsey | Conservative 39.1%vs Lib Dem 22.4% | 2023 Green 51.6%vs Conservative 35.9% | - | 47.2% |
| Copthorne & Worth | Conservative 44.1%vs Labour 19.9% | 2023 Conservative 51.1%vs Independent 23.6% | - | 39.7% |
| Crawley Down | Conservative 36.3%vs Labour 24.2% | 2023 Independent 63.4%vs Conservative 25.9% | - | - |
| Danehill & Fletching | Conservative 37.0%vs Lib Dem 23.1% | 2023 Green 64.2%vs Conservative 31.6% | - | 53.1% |
| East Grinstead Ashplats | Conservative 44.5%vs Lib Dem 19.6% | 2023 Conservative 47.8%vs Independent 20.0% | - | 41.6% |
| East Grinstead Baldwins | Conservative 40.9%vs Lib Dem 21.6% | 2023 Independent 38.5%vs Conservative 33.1% | - | 32.8% |
| East Grinstead Herontye | Conservative 42.2%vs Labour 20.8% | 2023 Conservative 45.6%vs Lib Dem 28.9% | - | 25.4% |
| East Grinstead Imberhorne | Conservative 41.4%vs Labour 20.8% | 2023 Conservative 42.7%vs Independent 30.4% | - | 38.8% |
| East Grinstead Town | Conservative 39.4%vs Lib Dem 23.3% | 2023 Conservative 41.6%vs Lib Dem 35.0% | - | 35.6% |
| Forest Row | Labour 27.8%vs Conservative 27.5% | 2023 Green 78.0%vs Independent 22.1% | - | 42.6% |
| Handcross & Pease Pottage | Conservative 38.7%vs Lib Dem 24.8% | 2023 Conservative 44.0%vs Lib Dem 32.4% | - | - |
| Lindfield Rural & High Weald | Conservative 37.6%vs Lib Dem 27.3% | 2023 Conservative 42.7%vs Green 35.0% | - | 48.0% |
| Maresfield | Conservative 36.6%vs Lib Dem 22.4% | 2023 Green 69.1%vs Conservative 30.9% | - | 45.4% |
| Newick | Conservative 42.3%vs Lib Dem 20.3% | 2023 Green 56.5%vs Conservative 35.7% | - | 48.0% |
| Uckfield East | Conservative 29.7%vs Lib Dem 29.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 46.6%vs Independent 32.4% | - | 35.5% |
| Uckfield New Town | Conservative 32.3%vs Labour 24.4% | 2023 Labour 49.3%vs Conservative 30.6% | - | 41.8% |
| Uckfield North | Conservative 32.3%vs Labour 22.5% | 2023 Labour 51.6%vs Independent 25.9% | - | 35.6% |
| Uckfield Ridgewood & Little Horsted | Conservative 34.0%vs Lib Dem 23.1% | 2023 Independent 41.3%vs Conservative 30.5% | - | 34.1% |
| Wivelsfield | Conservative 38.1%vs Labour 22.1% | 2023 Green 52.6%vs Conservative 36.5% | - | 42.7% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for East Grinstead and Uckfield at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won East Grinstead and Uckfield at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con hold | Charles Hendry Wealden MP | 9.6% | 56.6% | 25.3% | 17,179 | 71.8% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | Nusrat Ghani Wealden MP | 10.8% | 57.0% | 9.1% | 22,967 | 71.1%-0.7 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | Nusrat Ghani Wealden MP | 22.2% | 61.2% | 10.4% | 23,628 | 74.3%+3.2 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Nusrat Ghani Wealden MP, pre-review boundary | 13.6% | 58.5% | 23.0% | 20,291 | 79.1% |
| 2024 | Con hold | Mims Davies | 20.7% | 38.3% | 21.5% | 8,480 | 66.8%-12.3 |
East Grinstead and Uckfield was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Wealden (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like East Grinstead and Uckfield
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to East Grinstead and Uckfield. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied74.6 / 73.3vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3523.5 / 23.7vs 30.2
- ↓Social rent9.6 / 11.0vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied74.6 / 73.6vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent14.6 / 13.4vs 20.2
- ↓Social rent9.6 / 11.6vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied74.6 / 72.7vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3523.5 / 23.1vs 30.2
- ↓No quals12.4 / 12.6vs 18.0
- ↑Owner-occupied74.6 / 74.5vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent9.6 / 10.5vs 16.8
- ↓Private rent14.6 / 13.3vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied74.6 / 73.3vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent9.6 / 8.8vs 16.8
- ↓Under 3523.5 / 25.6vs 30.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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