East Grinstead and Uckfield
South East · County constituency
About the East Grinstead and Uckfield constituency
East Grinstead and Uckfield is a county constituency in the South East, spanning parts of Mid Sussex, Wealden and neighbouring councils. The sitting MP is Mims Davies (Conservative), first elected in May 2015.
At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won East Grinstead and Uckfield with 38.3% of the vote, ahead of the Liberal Democrats on 21.5%, a majority of 8,480 votes. Turnout was 66.8%.
If a general election were held today, PollCheck's projection at the current seven-poll average has the Conservatives on 29.7% and Reform UK on 20.8% in East Grinstead and Uckfield, a margin of 8.9 points. The projection updates automatically as new polls are added.
Demographically, East Grinstead and Uckfield is closely divided in the 2016 EU referendum (an estimated 49.0% voted Leave in 2016). About 36.4% of residents hold a degree, 74.6% of homes are owner-occupied, and the seat has a median age of about 46 (2021 Census).
Across the most recent general elections on record here, the seat has been won by the Conservatives each time.
Who lives in East Grinstead and Uckfield? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did East Grinstead and Uckfield vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of East Grinstead and Uckfield
Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.
East Grinstead and Uckfield within Mid Sussex and Wealden and 1 other council
East Grinstead and Uckfield crosses multiple council boundaries: Mid Sussex (57%), Wealden (33%), Lewes (10%). None of the constituent district councils were in the 2026 election cycle, but East Sussex County Council and West Sussex County Council elections were held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below. The most recent district ward results are shown after them.
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Mid Sussex | 57% |
| Wealden | 33% |
| Lewes | 10% |
East Sussex County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chailey | Grn | Grn 38% Ref 24% Con 24% | 53.1% |
| Maresfield & Buxted | Grn | Grn 33% Con 33% Ref 26% | 56.8% |
| Uckfield North | LD | LD 32% Ref 31% Con 22% | 48.5% |
| Uckfield South with Framfield | Ref | Ref 33% Con 25% LD 21% | 50.9% |
West Sussex County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| East Grinstead Meridian | Con | Con 31% Ref 30% Grn 16% | 45.3% |
| East Grinstead South & Ashurst Wood | Con | Con 43% Ref 25% LD 17% | 45.4% |
| Imberdown | Ref | Ref 31% Con 25% Independent 25% | 49.2% |
| Worth Forest | Ref | Ref 36% Con 25% Grn 15% | 45.8% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct 2024 | Wivelsfield | Grn HOLD | — |
| 7 Apr 2024 | Uckfield New Town | Ind HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward. Where the council held a May 2026 election, those results are shown; otherwise we show the most recent available ward result (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024), or, where the seat was uncontested at the last election, the current sitting councillor from OpenCouncilData. The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for East Grinstead and Uckfield at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won East Grinstead and Uckfield at past general elections?
2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con hold | Charles Hendry Wealden MP | 9.6% | 56.6% | 25.3% | 17,179 | 71.8% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | Nusrat Ghani Wealden MP | 10.8% | 57.0% | 9.1% | 22,967 | 71.1%-0.7 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | Nusrat Ghani Wealden MP | 22.2% | 61.2% | 10.4% | 23,628 | 74.3%+3.2 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Nusrat Ghani Wealden MP, pre-review boundary | 13.6% | 58.5% | 23.0% | 20,291 | 79.1% |
| 2024 | Con hold | Mims Davies | 20.7% | 38.3% | 21.5% | 8,480 | 66.8%-12.3 |
East Grinstead and Uckfield was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Wealden (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like East Grinstead and Uckfield
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to East Grinstead and Uckfield. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied74.6 / 73.3vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3523.5 / 23.7vs 30.2
- ↓Social rent9.6 / 11.0vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied74.6 / 73.6vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent14.6 / 13.4vs 20.2
- ↓Social rent9.6 / 11.6vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied74.6 / 72.7vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3523.5 / 23.1vs 30.2
- ↓No quals12.4 / 12.6vs 18.0
- ↑Owner-occupied74.6 / 74.5vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent9.6 / 10.5vs 16.8
- ↓Private rent14.6 / 13.3vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied74.6 / 73.3vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent9.6 / 8.8vs 16.8
- ↓Under 3523.5 / 25.6vs 30.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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