East Hampshire
South East · County constituency
About the East Hampshire constituency
East Hampshire is a county constituency in the South East, covering most or all of East Hampshire. The sitting MP is Damian Hinds (Conservative), first elected in May 2010.
At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won East Hampshire with 37.0% of the vote, ahead of the Liberal Democrats on 34.5%, a majority of 1,275 votes. Turnout was 70.8%.
If a general election were held today, PollCheck's projection at the current seven-poll average has the Liberal Democrats on 33.5% and the Conservatives on 33.2% in East Hampshire, a margin of 0.3 points, a projected change from the Conservatives since 2024. The projection updates automatically as new polls are added.
Demographically, East Hampshire is closely divided in the 2016 EU referendum (an estimated 49.3% voted Leave in 2016). About 40.1% of residents hold a degree, 72.7% of homes are owner-occupied, and the seat has a median age of about 48 (2021 Census).
Across the most recent general elections on record here, the seat has been won by the Conservatives each time.
Who lives in East Hampshire? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did East Hampshire vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of East Hampshire
Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.
East Hampshire within East Hampshire
The Westminster constituency of East Hampshire sits almost entirely within East Hampshire Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - the figures below are from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026. In addition, the Hampshire County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below.
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| East Hampshire | 96% | — |
| Basingstoke and Deane | 4% | View projection › |
Hampshire County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alton Rural | Con | Con 37% LD 32% Ref 22% | 0.0% |
| Alton Town | LD | LD 47% Ref 22% Con 18% | 48.8% |
| Catherington | Con | Con 34% Ref 31% LD 23% | 48.4% |
| Petersfield Butser | LD | LD 40% Con 29% Ref 20% | 49.0% |
| Petersfield Hangers | Con | Con 38% LD 31% Ref 17% | 55.7% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Aug 2025 | Alton Amery | LD HOLD | LD 55% Ref 26% Con 20% |
| 16 Feb 2024 | Four Marks & Medstead | LD HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward. Where the council held a May 2026 election, those results are shown; otherwise we show the most recent available ward result (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024), or, where the seat was uncontested at the last election, the current sitting councillor from OpenCouncilData. The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for East Hampshire at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won East Hampshire at past general elections?
2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Damian Hinds | 7.9% | 56.8% | 30.5% | 13,497 | 71.0% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Damian Hinds | 10.1% | 60.7% | 11.1% | 25,147 | 72.7%+1.7 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Damian Hinds | 17.0% | 63.6% | 15.2% | 25,852 | 74.7%+2.0 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Damian Hinds 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 12.3% | 59.0% | 21.7% | 20,200 | 77.4%+2.7 |
| 2024 | Con hold | Damian Hinds | 9.7% | 37.0% | 34.5% | 1,275 | 70.8%-6.6 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like East Hampshire
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to East Hampshire. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied72.7 / 72.4vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3523.1 / 23.2vs 30.2
- ↑Graduate40.1 / 40.6vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied72.7 / 70.1vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3523.1 / 23.2vs 30.2
- ↑Graduate40.1 / 39.6vs 33.7
- ↓Under 3523.1 / 22.9vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied72.7 / 69.1vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate40.1 / 39.8vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied72.7 / 70.3vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3523.1 / 21.9vs 30.2
- ↑Graduate40.1 / 39.2vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied72.7 / 71.8vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3523.1 / 23.6vs 30.2
- ↓Private rent13.7 / 13.7vs 20.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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