East Hampshire
South East · County constituency
About the East Hampshire constituency
East Hampshire is a county constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Damian Hinds (Conservative), first elected in May 2010. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 37.0% to 34.5% for the Liberal Democrats, a majority of 1,275 votes on a 70.8% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 33.7% and the Liberal Democrats on 31.2%, a margin of 2.5 points.
Who lives in East Hampshire? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did East Hampshire vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of East Hampshire
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
East Hampshire within East Hampshire
East Hampshire sits almost entirely within East Hampshire Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. In addition, the Hampshire County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| East Hampshire | 96% | — |
| Basingstoke and Deane | 4% | View projection › |
Hampshire County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alton Rural | Con | Con 37% LD 32% Ref 22% | 0.0% |
| Alton Town | LD | LD 47% Ref 22% Con 18% | 48.8% |
| Catherington | Con | Con 34% Ref 31% LD 23% | 48.4% |
| Petersfield Butser | LD | LD 40% Con 29% Ref 20% | 49.0% |
| Petersfield Hangers | Con | Con 38% LD 31% Ref 17% | 55.7% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Aug 2025 | Alton Amery | LD HOLD | LD 55% Ref 26% Con 20% |
| 16 Feb 2024 | Four Marks & Medstead | LD HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alton Amery | Lib Dem 40.8%vs Conservative 30.9% | 2023 Lib Dem 53.3%vs Conservative 29.4% | - | 35.0% |
| Alton Ashdell | Lib Dem 40.8%vs Conservative 32.3% | 2023 Lib Dem 53.0%vs Conservative 33.8% | - | 42.8% |
| Alton Eastbrooke | Lib Dem 32.2%vs Conservative 31.7% | 2023 Labour 39.2%vs Conservative 27.8% | - | 27.2% |
| Alton Holybourne | Conservative 35.4%vs Lib Dem 34.7% | 2023 Conservative 42.6%vs Lib Dem 41.0% | - | 37.2% |
| Alton Westbrooke | Lib Dem 37.4%vs Conservative 33.1% | 2023 Lib Dem 43.7%vs Labour 26.8% | - | 38.6% |
| Alton Whitedown | Lib Dem 47.8%vs Conservative 28.1% | 2023 Lib Dem 68.6%vs Conservative 30.2% | - | 34.9% |
| Alton Wooteys | Conservative 31.7%vs Lib Dem 31.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 33.9%vs Conservative 30.8% | - | 28.1% |
| Bentworth & Froyle | Conservative 41.4%vs Lib Dem 29.1% | 2023 Conservative 61.5%vs Green 38.5% | - | 42.8% |
| Binsted, Bentley & Selborne | Conservative 38.5%vs Lib Dem 36.1% | 2023 Conservative 51.9%vs Lib Dem 39.9% | - | 40.9% |
| Buriton & East Meon | Conservative 41.2%vs Lib Dem 31.0% | 2023 Conservative 57.5%vs Lib Dem 28.0% | - | 38.6% |
| Clanfield | Lib Dem 34.2%vs Conservative 33.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 54.2%vs Conservative 45.8% | - | 35.0% |
| Four Marks & Medstead | Conservative 39.2%vs Lib Dem 36.2% | 2023 Lib Dem 45.6%vs Conservative 44.5% | - | 42.1% |
| Froxfield, Sheet & Steep | Conservative 40.9%vs Lib Dem 35.3% | 2023 Conservative 56.0%vs Lib Dem 37.1% | - | 50.4% |
| Horndean Catherington | Conservative 38.6%vs Lib Dem 30.1% | 2023 Conservative 63.4%vs Lib Dem 36.6% | - | 35.1% |
| Horndean Downs | Conservative 37.5%vs Lib Dem 26.6% | 2023 Green 58.1%vs Conservative 41.9% | - | 33.7% |
| Horndean Kings & Blendworth | Conservative 36.4%vs Lib Dem 31.5% | 2023 Conservative 56.4%vs Lib Dem 23.2% | - | 43.4% |
| Horndean Murray | Lib Dem 34.7%vs Conservative 32.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 52.8%vs Conservative 47.2% | - | 30.2% |
| Liss | Conservative 37.5%vs Lib Dem 35.9% | 2023 Conservative 39.7%vs Lib Dem 24.9% | - | 57.7% |
| Oakley & The Candovers | Conservative 40.9%vs Labour 27.5% | May 2026 Others 37.2%vs Conservative 24.2% | Conservative→Others +27.0pp | 48.7% |
| Petersfield Bell Hill | Conservative 35.7%vs Lib Dem 31.6% | 2023 Independent 52.3%vs Conservative 23.2% | - | 36.8% |
| Petersfield Causeway | Lib Dem 36.6%vs Conservative 34.3% | 2023 Lib Dem 49.0%vs Conservative 40.0% | - | 37.3% |
| Petersfield Heath | Conservative 43.3%vs Lib Dem 32.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 45.0%vs Conservative 44.7% | - | 42.0% |
| Petersfield St Peter's | Lib Dem 37.3%vs Conservative 36.1% | 2023 Lib Dem 54.7%vs Conservative 38.1% | - | 45.9% |
| Ropley, Hawkley & Hangers | Conservative 43.5%vs Lib Dem 30.2% | 2023 Conservative 65.8%vs Lib Dem 34.2% | - | 43.9% |
| Rowlands Castle | Conservative 40.5%vs Lib Dem 27.7% | 2023 Conservative 52.3%vs Reform 37.9% | - | 38.7% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for East Hampshire at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won East Hampshire at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Damian Hinds | 7.9% | 56.8% | 30.5% | 13,497 | 71.0% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Damian Hinds | 10.1% | 60.7% | 11.1% | 25,147 | 72.7%+1.7 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Damian Hinds | 17.0% | 63.6% | 15.2% | 25,852 | 74.7%+2.0 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Damian Hinds 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 12.3% | 59.0% | 21.7% | 20,200 | 77.4%+2.7 |
| 2024 | Con hold | Damian Hinds | 9.7% | 37.0% | 34.5% | 1,275 | 70.8%-6.6 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like East Hampshire
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to East Hampshire. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied72.7 / 72.4vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3523.1 / 23.2vs 30.2
- ↑Graduate40.1 / 40.6vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied72.7 / 70.1vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3523.1 / 23.2vs 30.2
- ↑Graduate40.1 / 39.6vs 33.7
- ↓Under 3523.1 / 22.9vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied72.7 / 69.1vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate40.1 / 39.8vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied72.7 / 70.3vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3523.1 / 21.9vs 30.2
- ↑Graduate40.1 / 39.2vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied72.7 / 71.8vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3523.1 / 23.6vs 30.2
- ↓Private rent13.7 / 13.7vs 20.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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