Stroud
South West · County constituency · Stroud borough
About the Stroud constituency
Stroud is a county constituency in the South West. The sitting MP is Dr Simon Opher (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 46.4% to 25.8% for the Conservatives, a majority of 11,388 votes on a 70.9% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 38.5% and Reform UK on 22.9%, a margin of 15.6 points.
Who lives in Stroud? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Stroud vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Stroud
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Stroud within Stroud
Stroud sits entirely within Stroud Council. Stroud was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Stroud | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Mar 2026 | Thrupp | Grn HOLD | Grn 68% Ref 17% Con 7% |
| 11 Jun 2025 | Severn | Grn GAIN from Lab | Grn 28% Con 27% Ref 27% |
| 1 May 2025 | Stroud Central | Grn GAIN from Lab | Grn 56% Lab 16% Ref 15% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amberley and Woodchester | Labour 45.2%vs Conservative 26.7% | 2024 Green 47.9%vs Labour 30.4% | - | 50.1% |
| Berkeley Vale | Labour 41.8%vs Conservative 34.6% | 2024 Conservative 49.5%vs Labour 34.3% | - | 38.4% |
| Cainscross | Labour 48.7%vs Conservative 22.3% | 2024 Labour 51.1%vs Green 25.8% | - | 39.4% |
| Cam East | Labour 44.1%vs Conservative 29.9% | 2024 Labour 47.1%vs Conservative 35.4% | - | 41.3% |
| Cam West | Labour 47.7%vs Conservative 26.8% | 2024 Labour 48.0%vs Conservative 30.3% | - | 34.1% |
| Chalford | Labour 44.7%vs Conservative 25.2% | 2024 Green 53.4%vs Labour 24.4% | - | 48.0% |
| Coaley and Uley | Labour 39.9%vs Conservative 30.2% | 2024 Green 59.2%vs Conservative 26.3% | - | 50.2% |
| Dursley | Labour 49.0%vs Conservative 24.3% | 2024 Labour 43.4%vs Green 28.2% | - | 41.3% |
| Nailsworth | Labour 55.8%vs Conservative 20.4% | 2024 Labour 50.2%vs Green 30.3% | - | 46.6% |
| Randwick, Whiteshill and Ruscombe | Labour 43.2%vs Conservative 24.5% | 2024 Green 74.0%vs Conservative 13.4% | - | 47.7% |
| Rodborough | Labour 50.2%vs Conservative 21.3% | 2024 Labour 35.3%vs Green 31.3% | - | 50.5% |
| Severn | Labour 42.2%vs Conservative 32.3% | 2024 Labour 37.7%vs Conservative 34.3% | - | 37.3% |
| Stonehouse | Labour 48.1%vs Conservative 25.0% | 2024 Labour 41.1%vs Green 27.6% | - | 39.5% |
| Stroud Central | Labour 50.9%vs Conservative 20.3% | 2024 Labour 50.8%vs Green 40.5% | - | 44.1% |
| Stroud Farmhill and Paganhill | Labour 48.3%vs Conservative 23.3% | 2024 Labour 48.4%vs Green 38.5% | - | 42.5% |
| Stroud Slade | Labour 50.9%vs Conservative 17.0% | 2024 Green 53.8%vs Labour 31.9% | - | 40.0% |
| Stroud Trinity | Labour 47.9%vs Conservative 19.1% | 2024 Green 60.2%vs Labour 24.1% | - | 49.3% |
| Stroud Uplands | Labour 51.8%vs Conservative 21.6% | 2024 Labour 38.0%vs Green 28.4% | - | 39.4% |
| Stroud Valley | Labour 51.2%vs Conservative 17.6% | 2024 Green 62.0%vs Labour 32.5% | - | 52.0% |
| The Stanleys | Labour 41.2%vs Conservative 28.5% | 2024 Green 57.1%vs Conservative 23.0% | - | 45.8% |
| Thrupp | Labour 40.0%vs Conservative 25.9% | 2024 Green 64.4%vs Labour 18.1% | - | 51.1% |
| Wotton-under-Edge | Labour 40.5%vs Conservative 28.6% | 2024 Lib Dem 35.5%vs Green 32.6% | - | 43.2% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Stroud at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Stroud at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con gain from Lab | Neil Carmichael | 38.6% | 40.8% | 15.4% | 1,299 | 74.1% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Neil Carmichael | 37.7% | 45.7% | 3.4% | 4,866 | 75.5%+1.4 |
| 2017 | Lab gain from Con | David Drew | 47.0% | 45.9% | 3.2% | 687 | 77.0%+1.5 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Siobhan Baillie 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 41.6% | 45.7% | 2.2% | 2,467 | 79.6%+2.6 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Simon Opher | 46.4% | 25.7% | 5.3% | 11,388 | 70.9%-8.7 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Stroud
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Stroud. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied71.8 / 72.4vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3523.6 / 23.2vs 30.2
- ↓Leave45.9 / 47.2vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied71.8 / 72.7vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3523.6 / 23.1vs 30.2
- ↓Private rent13.7 / 13.7vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied71.8 / 70.1vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3523.6 / 23.2vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+27.6 / 29.2vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied71.8 / 70.0vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+27.6 / 28.9vs 22.7
- ↓Leave45.9 / 48.7vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied71.8 / 71.0vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3523.6 / 24.6vs 30.2
- ↓Private rent13.7 / 16.1vs 20.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.