North Cotswolds
South West · County constituency
About the North Cotswolds constituency
North Cotswolds is a county constituency in the South West. The sitting MP is Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown (Conservative), first elected in April 1992. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 34.7% to 28.0% for the Liberal Democrats, a majority of 3,357 votes on a 68.6% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 33.6% and Reform UK on 26.8%, a margin of 6.8 points.
Who lives in North Cotswolds? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did North Cotswolds vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of North Cotswolds
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
North Cotswolds within Cotswold and Tewkesbury and 1 other council
North Cotswolds crosses council boundaries: Cotswold (43%), Tewkesbury (32%), Stroud (24%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Cotswold | 43% |
| Tewkesbury | 32% |
| Stroud | 24% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Jan 2026 | The Rissingtons | LD GAIN from Grn | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Badgeworth | Conservative 40.8%vs Lib Dem 28.1% | 2023 Conservative 51.2%vs Lib Dem 48.8% | - | 34.1% |
| Bisley | Conservative 35.4%vs Lib Dem 23.7% | 2024 Green 62.1%vs Conservative 23.8% | - | 49.4% |
| Blockley | Conservative 35.0%vs Lib Dem 24.6% | 2023 Green 56.3%vs Conservative 43.7% | - | 43.4% |
| Bourton Vale | Conservative 38.1%vs Lib Dem 25.7% | 2023 Conservative 60.9%vs Lib Dem 30.8% | - | 40.4% |
| Bourton Village | Conservative 31.6%vs Lib Dem 30.1% | 2023 Lib Dem 50.3%vs Conservative 49.7% | - | 34.7% |
| Brockworth East | Conservative 30.6%vs Lib Dem 22.8% | 2023 Independent 74.0%vs Conservative 14.9% | - | 28.6% |
| Brockworth West | Conservative 30.9%vs Lib Dem 23.8% | 2023 Independent 65.2%vs Conservative 21.5% | - | 30.0% |
| Campden & Vale | Conservative 39.1%vs Lib Dem 24.6% | 2023 Conservative 69.7%vs Lib Dem 30.3% | - | 37.0% |
| Chedworth & Churn Valley | Lib Dem 36.0%vs Conservative 31.9% | 2023 Lib Dem 64.0%vs Conservative 36.0% | - | 47.9% |
| Churchdown Brookfield with Hucclecote | Lib Dem 33.2%vs Conservative 31.4% | 2023 Lib Dem 61.0%vs Conservative 29.1% | - | 32.8% |
| Churchdown St John's | Lib Dem 35.0%vs Conservative 31.3% | 2023 Lib Dem 64.5%vs Conservative 27.3% | - | 29.3% |
| Ermin | Conservative 41.0%vs Lib Dem 26.9% | 2023 Conservative 64.9%vs Lib Dem 35.1% | - | 43.4% |
| Fosseridge | Conservative 39.9%vs Lib Dem 25.1% | 2023 Conservative 65.6%vs Lib Dem 34.4% | - | 41.8% |
| Hardwicke | Conservative 36.2%vs Lib Dem 24.8% | 2024 Conservative 44.7%vs Labour 26.3% | - | 29.7% |
| Minchinhampton | Conservative 32.7%vs Lib Dem 25.1% | 2024 Green 67.0%vs Conservative 15.4% | - | 46.0% |
| Moreton East | Lib Dem 34.7%vs Conservative 31.5% | 2023 Lib Dem 42.8%vs Conservative 39.9% | - | 40.6% |
| Moreton West | Conservative 34.0%vs Lib Dem 30.5% | 2023 Conservative 51.5%vs Lib Dem 41.3% | - | 45.8% |
| Northleach | Lib Dem 33.7%vs Conservative 31.2% | 2023 Lib Dem 50.5%vs Conservative 42.2% | - | 46.3% |
| Painswick and Upton | Conservative 36.6%vs Lib Dem 23.9% | 2024 Green 53.8%vs Conservative 33.0% | - | 47.5% |
| Sandywell | Conservative 40.2%vs Lib Dem 26.5% | 2023 Conservative 53.7%vs Lib Dem 46.3% | - | 40.8% |
| Shurdington | Conservative 36.5%vs Lib Dem 28.2% | 2023 Lib Dem 54.7%vs Conservative 45.3% | - | 32.9% |
| Stow | Lib Dem 33.5%vs Conservative 30.2% | 2023 Lib Dem 57.9%vs Conservative 38.5% | - | 37.1% |
| The Rissingtons | Conservative 32.1%vs Lib Dem 25.6% | 2023 Green 56.6%vs Conservative 43.4% | - | 34.7% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for North Cotswolds at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won North Cotswolds at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con hold | Geoffrey Clifton-Brown The Cotswolds MP | 10.7% | 53.0% | 29.6% | 12,864 | 71.5% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | Geoffrey Clifton-Brown The Cotswolds MP | 9.2% | 56.5% | 18.6% | 21,477 | 72.4%+0.9 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | Geoffrey Clifton-Brown The Cotswolds MP | 17.9% | 60.6% | 16.3% | 25,499 | 74.2%+1.8 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Geoffrey Clifton-Brown The Cotswolds MP, pre-review boundary | 16.5% | 59.3% | 18.0% | 20,997 | 71.6% |
| 2024 | Con hold | Geoffrey Clifton-Brown | 17.1% | 34.7% | 28.0% | 3,357 | 68.6%-3.0 |
North Cotswolds was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat The Cotswolds (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like North Cotswolds
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to North Cotswolds. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied70.1 / 69.1vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3523.2 / 22.9vs 30.2
- ↑Graduate39.6 / 39.8vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied70.1 / 72.7vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3523.2 / 23.1vs 30.2
- ↑Graduate39.6 / 40.1vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied70.1 / 72.4vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3523.2 / 23.2vs 30.2
- ↑Graduate39.6 / 40.6vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied70.1 / 70.3vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3523.2 / 21.9vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+29.2 / 31.0vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied70.1 / 71.8vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3523.2 / 23.6vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+29.2 / 27.6vs 22.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.