South Cotswolds
South West · County constituency
About the South Cotswolds constituency
South Cotswolds is a county constituency in the South West. The sitting MP is Dr Roz Savage (Liberal Democrat), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats won with 43.9% to 34.4% for the Conservatives, a majority of 4,973 votes on a 72.7% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Liberal Democrats on 37.7% and the Conservatives on 32.6%, a margin of 5.1 points.
Who lives in South Cotswolds? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did South Cotswolds vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of South Cotswolds
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
South Cotswolds within Cotswold and Wiltshire and 1 other council
South Cotswolds crosses council boundaries: Cotswold (56%), Wiltshire (42%), Stroud (2%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Cotswold | 56% |
| Wiltshire | 42% |
| Stroud | 2% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Jul 2026 | St Michael's | LD HOLD | LD 58% Con 19% Ref 15% |
| 12 Mar 2026 | The Beeches | LD HOLD | LD 53% Ref 23% Con 16% |
| 1 May 2025 | Tetbury with Upton | Con GAIN from Ind | Con 40% LD 35% Ref 16% |
| 1 May 2025 | Watermoor | LD HOLD | LD 49% Ref 24% Con 15% |
| 17 Jan 2025 | Chesterton | LD HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abbey | Lib Dem 53.4%vs Conservative 24.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 62.2%vs Conservative 28.8% | - | 44.1% |
| Brinkworth | Lib Dem 46.4%vs Conservative 37.5% | 2021 Conservative 51.0%vs Lib Dem 45.5% | - | 58.0% |
| By Brook | Conservative 44.8%vs Lib Dem 35.5% | 2021 Conservative 61.6%vs Lib Dem 19.8% | - | 42.4% |
| Chesterton | Lib Dem 49.0%vs Conservative 24.2% | 2023 Lib Dem 63.9%vs Conservative 24.9% | - | 35.2% |
| Cricklade & Latton | Lib Dem 48.3%vs Conservative 30.5% | 2021 Lib Dem 62.1%vs Conservative 37.9% | - | 52.3% |
| Fairford North | Lib Dem 47.0%vs Conservative 29.9% | 2023 Lib Dem 51.5%vs Conservative 40.0% | - | 40.1% |
| Four Acres | Lib Dem 50.8%vs Conservative 25.8% | 2023 Lib Dem 66.0%vs Conservative 34.0% | - | 39.6% |
| Grumbolds Ash with Avening | Conservative 39.0%vs Lib Dem 37.4% | 2023 Conservative 61.4%vs Lib Dem 38.6% | - | 41.1% |
| Kemble | Conservative 41.1%vs Lib Dem 40.3% | 2023 Lib Dem 56.9%vs Conservative 41.0% | - | 54.4% |
| Kingswood | Lib Dem 58.3%vs Conservative 25.9% | 2024 Lib Dem 82.0%vs Conservative 9.4% | - | 45.6% |
| Kington | Conservative 45.3%vs Lib Dem 33.8% | 2021 Conservative 61.5%vs Lib Dem 15.3% | - | 46.4% |
| Lechlade, Kempsford & Fairford South | Lib Dem 44.3%vs Conservative 34.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 54.1%vs Conservative 39.7% | - | 41.0% |
| Malmesbury | Lib Dem 50.4%vs Conservative 29.0% | 2021 Lib Dem 57.2%vs Conservative 31.2% | - | 43.5% |
| Minety | Conservative 48.0%vs Lib Dem 31.4% | 2021 Conservative 66.9%vs Lib Dem 12.4% | - | 47.3% |
| New Mills | Lib Dem 46.4%vs Conservative 24.2% | 2023 Lib Dem 72.9%vs Conservative 27.1% | - | 29.2% |
| Purton | Conservative 45.8%vs Lib Dem 31.8% | 2021 Conservative 68.9%vs Lib Dem 14.3% | - | 32.4% |
| Sherston | Lib Dem 47.6%vs Conservative 34.4% | 2021 Lib Dem 49.3%vs Conservative 44.5% | - | 49.4% |
| Siddington & Cerney Rural | Lib Dem 48.9%vs Conservative 28.0% | 2023 Lib Dem 65.9%vs Conservative 34.1% | - | 36.7% |
| South Cerney Village | Lib Dem 49.4%vs Conservative 26.7% | 2023 Lib Dem 63.7%vs Conservative 36.3% | - | 35.6% |
| St Michael's | Lib Dem 50.3%vs Conservative 25.1% | 2023 Lib Dem 68.5%vs Conservative 31.6% | - | 41.1% |
| Stratton | Lib Dem 51.0%vs Conservative 29.8% | 2023 Lib Dem 56.7%vs Conservative 30.6% | - | 43.0% |
| Tetbury East & Rural | Lib Dem 38.5%vs Conservative 30.8% | 2023 Independent 76.7%vs Conservative 23.3% | - | 41.0% |
| Tetbury Town | Lib Dem 42.8%vs Conservative 31.9% | 2023 Lib Dem 50.5%vs Conservative 27.5% | - | 33.7% |
| Tetbury with Upton | Lib Dem 38.0%vs Conservative 36.1% | 2023 Lib Dem 37.6%vs Conservative 29.1% | - | 41.4% |
| The Ampneys & Hampton | Lib Dem 46.7%vs Conservative 32.0% | 2023 Lib Dem 57.5%vs Conservative 42.5% | - | 50.7% |
| The Beeches | Lib Dem 49.0%vs Conservative 26.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 55.5%vs Conservative 34.3% | - | 33.6% |
| Watermoor | Lib Dem 50.3%vs Conservative 24.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 69.8%vs Conservative 30.2% | - | 32.5% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for South Cotswolds at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won South Cotswolds at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con hold | James Gray North Wiltshire MP | 6.7% | 51.6% | 36.2% | 7,483 | 73.4% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | James Gray North Wiltshire MP | 9.8% | 57.2% | 15.6% | 21,046 | 74.5%+1.1 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | James Gray North Wiltshire MP | 17.5% | 60.3% | 17.7% | 22,877 | 75.2%+0.7 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | James Gray North Wiltshire MP, pre-review boundary | 10.7% | 57.9% | 27.6% | 16,092 | 73.0% |
| 2024 | LD gain from Con | Roz Savage | 7.5% | 34.4% | 43.9% | 4,973 | 72.7%-0.3 |
South Cotswolds was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat North Wiltshire (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like South Cotswolds
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to South Cotswolds. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied69.1 / 70.1vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3522.9 / 23.2vs 30.2
- ↑Graduate39.8 / 39.6vs 33.7
- ↓Under 3522.9 / 21.9vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied69.1 / 70.3vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate39.8 / 39.2vs 33.7
- ↓Under 3522.9 / 23.1vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied69.1 / 72.7vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate39.8 / 40.1vs 33.7
- ↓Under 3522.9 / 23.6vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+28.5 / 28.9vs 22.7
- ↑Graduate39.8 / 38.5vs 33.7
- ↓Under 3522.9 / 23.2vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied69.1 / 72.4vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate39.8 / 40.6vs 33.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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