Salisbury
South West · County constituency · Wiltshire
About the Salisbury constituency
Salisbury is a county constituency in the South West. The sitting MP is John Glen (Conservative), MP since May 2010. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 34.1% to 26.5% for Labour, a majority of 3,807 votes on a 69.9% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 29.6% and Labour on 25.5%, a margin of 4.1 points.
Who lives in Salisbury? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Salisbury vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Salisbury
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Salisbury within Wiltshire
Salisbury sits entirely within Wiltshire Council. Wiltshire was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results with vote counts available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Wiltshire | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2026 | Salisbury Milford | LD HOLD | LD 46% Con 36% Ref 11% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent result with vote counts available. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alderbury & Whiteparish | Conservative 42.0%vs Lib Dem 22.7% | 2025 Conservative 44.9%vs Reform 20.0% | - | 37.0% |
| Downton & Ebble Valley | Conservative 41.3%vs Labour 22.4% | 2025 Conservative 50.2%vs Reform 22.7% | - | 35.0% |
| Fovant & Chalke Valley | Conservative 39.3%vs Labour 25.3% | 2025 Conservative 55.4%vs Reform 24.3% | - | 40.0% |
| Laverstock | Labour 39.0%vs Conservative 31.7% | 2025 Lib Dem 44.7%vs Conservative 35.9% | - | 41.0% |
| Nadder Valley | Conservative 38.9%vs Labour 25.7% | 2025 Conservative 51.6%vs Reform 21.4% | - | 39.0% |
| Old Sarum & Lower Bourne Valley | Conservative 34.0%vs Labour 31.7% | 2025 Conservative 33.2%vs Reform 32.0% | - | 30.0% |
| Redlynch & Landford | Conservative 42.1%vs Lib Dem 23.3% | 2025 Conservative 58.1%vs Lib Dem 18.3% | - | 39.0% |
| Salisbury Bemerton Heath | Labour 38.4%vs Conservative 26.4% | 2025 Reform 34.7%vs Lib Dem 28.2% | - | 21.0% |
| Salisbury Fisherton & Bemerton Village | Labour 38.0%vs Conservative 33.6% | 2025 Labour 29.2%vs Conservative 27.9% | - | 30.0% |
| Salisbury Harnham East | Conservative 30.1%vs Labour 29.2% | 2025 Conservative 36.4%vs Lib Dem 28.0% | - | 38.0% |
| Salisbury Harnham West | Lib Dem 37.6%vs Conservative 29.6% | 2025 Lib Dem 52.5%vs Conservative 25.2% | - | 39.0% |
| Salisbury Milford | Conservative 30.5%vs Lib Dem 26.7% | 2025 Lib Dem 43.9%vs Conservative 24.0% | - | 35.0% |
| Salisbury St Edmund's | Lib Dem 40.5%vs Conservative 24.8% | 2025 Lib Dem 52.6%vs Conservative 14.9% | - | 34.0% |
| Salisbury St Francis & Stratford | Conservative 33.5%vs Labour 30.0% | 2025 Independent 46.1%vs Conservative 20.9% | - | 44.0% |
| Salisbury St Paul's | Labour 27.9%vs Conservative 27.2% | 2025 Conservative 37.2%vs Lib Dem 31.2% | - | 32.0% |
| Tisbury | Lib Dem 31.9%vs Conservative 29.0% | 2025 Lib Dem 58.4%vs Reform 22.0% | - | 38.0% |
| Wilton | Conservative 36.5%vs Lib Dem 29.6% | 2025 Conservative 40.5%vs Lib Dem 39.5% | - | 36.0% |
| Winterslow & Upper Bourne Valley | Conservative 43.1%vs Lib Dem 20.9% | 2025 Conservative 58.2%vs Reform 20.3% | - | 40.0% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Salisbury at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Salisbury at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | John Glen | 7.6% | 49.2% | 36.9% | 5,966 | 71.9% |
| 2015 | Con hold | John Glen | 15.3% | 55.6% | 10.1% | 20,421 | 72.9%+1.0 |
| 2017 | Con hold | John Glen | 25.5% | 58.1% | 11.2% | 17,333 | 73.1%+0.2 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | John Glen 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 18.7% | 55.2% | 19.5% | 18,848 | 75.1%+2.0 |
| 2024 | Con hold | John Glen | 26.5% | 34.1% | 23.6% | 3,807 | 69.9%-5.2 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Salisbury
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Salisbury. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Under 3523.6 / 22.9vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+28.9 / 28.5vs 22.7
- ↑Graduate38.5 / 39.8vs 33.7
- ↓Under 3523.6 / 23.2vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+28.9 / 29.2vs 22.7
- ↑Graduate38.5 / 39.6vs 33.7
- ↓Under 3523.6 / 23.9vs 30.2
- ↑Graduate38.5 / 37.5vs 33.7
- ↑Age 65+28.9 / 26.8vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3523.6 / 21.9vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+28.9 / 31.0vs 22.7
- ↑Graduate38.5 / 39.2vs 33.7
- ↑Age 65+28.9 / 26.9vs 22.7
- ↓No quals14.0 / 15.1vs 18.0
- ↓Under 3523.6 / 27.0vs 30.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic model at the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls, built from the British Election Study Internet Panel (Fieldhouse et al.), Census 2021 (ONS) and Scotland's Census 2022 (NRS). The trajectory was recalculated with the current model, introduced in autumn 2026.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.