Stratford-on-Avon
West Midlands · County constituency · Stratford-on-Avon borough
About the Stratford-on-Avon constituency
Stratford-on-Avon is a county constituency in the West Midlands. The sitting MP is Manuela Perteghella (Liberal Democrat), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats won with 44.3% to 30.8% for the Conservatives, a majority of 7,122 votes on a 69.9% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Liberal Democrats on 43.7% and the Conservatives on 28.7%, a margin of 15.0 points.
Who lives in Stratford-on-Avon? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Stratford-on-Avon vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Stratford-on-Avon
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Stratford-on-Avon within Stratford-on-Avon
Stratford-on-Avon sits entirely within Stratford-on-Avon Council. Stratford-on-Avon was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Stratford-on-Avon | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Jul 2026 | Kinwarton | Con GAIN from LD | Con 36% LD 36% Ref 17% |
| 20 Nov 2025 | Quinton | LD HOLD | LD 47% Ref 33% Con 15% |
| 20 Nov 2025 | Salford Priors & Alcester Rural | Ref GAIN from Con | LD 33% Ref 33% Con 28% |
| 1 May 2025 | Alcester West | LD HOLD | LD 33% Ref 23% Con 22% |
| 1 May 2025 | Welford-on-Avon | LD HOLD | LD 46% Ref 31% Con 18% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alcester East | Lib Dem 54.6%vs Conservative 23.4% | 2023 Lib Dem 66.7%vs Conservative 23.6% | - | 34.2% |
| Alcester West | Lib Dem 47.2%vs Conservative 28.9% | 2023 Lib Dem 40.7%vs Labour 30.8% | - | 46.4% |
| Bidford East | Conservative 36.7%vs Lib Dem 33.7% | 2023 Conservative 41.0%vs Labour 33.8% | - | 30.5% |
| Bidford West | Lib Dem 39.4%vs Conservative 32.7% | 2023 Conservative 45.5%vs Lib Dem 27.1% | - | 30.8% |
| Brailes & Compton | Conservative 38.2%vs Lib Dem 37.9% | 2023 Conservative 49.9%vs Lib Dem 42.4% | - | 43.9% |
| Claverdon & Snitterfield | Lib Dem 34.0%vs Conservative 31.6% | 2023 Green 62.1%vs Conservative 30.3% | - | 47.9% |
| Henley-in-Arden | Conservative 38.1%vs Lib Dem 37.0% | 2023 Lib Dem 57.5%vs Conservative 32.8% | - | 40.5% |
| Kinwarton | Lib Dem 42.2%vs Conservative 34.9% | 2023 Lib Dem 56.6%vs Conservative 33.5% | - | 43.5% |
| Long Marston | Lib Dem 54.4%vs Conservative 24.3% | 2023 Lib Dem 58.6%vs Conservative 25.9% | - | 38.4% |
| Quinton | Conservative 38.8%vs Lib Dem 35.2% | 2023 Lib Dem 40.1%vs Conservative 37.6% | - | 39.5% |
| Salford Priors & Alcester Rural | Conservative 37.4%vs Lib Dem 37.3% | 2023 Conservative 57.0%vs Lib Dem 23.0% | - | 34.0% |
| Shipston North | Conservative 34.9%vs Lib Dem 34.9% | 2023 Green 63.2%vs Conservative 25.5% | - | 38.2% |
| Shipston South | Lib Dem 41.6%vs Conservative 33.1% | 2023 Green 58.2%vs Conservative 41.8% | - | 44.3% |
| Stratford Avenue | Lib Dem 46.5%vs Conservative 27.5% | 2023 Lib Dem 41.9%vs Conservative 32.7% | - | 33.9% |
| Stratford Bishopton | Lib Dem 52.5%vs Conservative 24.8% | 2023 Lib Dem 57.3%vs Conservative 27.9% | - | 39.8% |
| Stratford Clopton | Lib Dem 47.5%vs Conservative 21.9% | 2023 Lib Dem 50.0%vs Labour 30.7% | - | 39.8% |
| Stratford Guildhall & Bridgetown | Lib Dem 55.7%vs Conservative 22.1% | 2023 Lib Dem 68.4%vs Conservative 20.8% | - | 45.4% |
| Stratford Hathaway | Lib Dem 47.6%vs Conservative 20.3% | 2023 Lib Dem 47.1%vs Labour 32.1% | - | 32.3% |
| Stratford Orchard Hill | Lib Dem 51.2%vs Conservative 23.8% | 2023 Lib Dem 53.3%vs Conservative 25.8% | - | 45.7% |
| Stratford Shottery | Lib Dem 55.3%vs Conservative 23.2% | 2023 Lib Dem 63.5%vs Conservative 22.9% | - | 46.9% |
| Stratford Tiddington | Lib Dem 59.8%vs Conservative 21.1% | 2023 Lib Dem 73.1%vs Conservative 18.1% | - | 46.5% |
| Stratford Welcombe | Lib Dem 49.4%vs Conservative 26.3% | 2023 Lib Dem 57.9%vs Conservative 34.8% | - | 45.0% |
| Studley North | Lib Dem 47.0%vs Conservative 29.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 45.7%vs Conservative 38.8% | - | 32.7% |
| Studley South | Lib Dem 49.5%vs Conservative 27.2% | 2023 Lib Dem 53.8%vs Conservative 30.7% | - | 33.8% |
| Tanworth-in-Arden | Conservative 46.6%vs Lib Dem 30.1% | 2023 Conservative 67.8%vs Lib Dem 14.7% | - | 31.0% |
| Tredington | Lib Dem 46.3%vs Conservative 32.5% | 2023 Conservative 44.9%vs Lib Dem 41.7% | - | 44.7% |
| Welford-on-Avon | Lib Dem 46.9%vs Conservative 31.0% | 2023 Lib Dem 73.6%vs Conservative 21.1% | - | 49.3% |
| Wellesbourne North & Rural | Conservative 39.1%vs Lib Dem 27.8% | 2023 Conservative 46.3%vs Lib Dem 40.0% | - | 42.3% |
| Wootton Wawen | Conservative 42.9%vs Lib Dem 31.9% | 2023 Conservative 64.5%vs Lib Dem 19.6% | - | 35.6% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Stratford-on-Avon at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Stratford-on-Avon at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Nadhim Zahawi | 9.5% | 51.5% | 29.1% | 11,346 | 72.7% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Nadhim Zahawi | 13.0% | 57.7% | 12.0% | 22,876 | 72.2%-0.5 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Nadhim Zahawi | 21.9% | 62.9% | 11.9% | 21,958 | 73.8%+1.6 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Nadhim Zahawi 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 11.3% | 60.2% | 24.7% | 19,020 | 74.0%+0.2 |
| 2024 | LD gain from Con | Manuela Perteghella | 7.1% | 30.8% | 44.3% | 7,122 | 69.9%-4.1 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Stratford-on-Avon
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Stratford-on-Avon. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Under 3521.9 / 21.2vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+31.0 / 30.6vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied70.3 / 72.9vs 61.9
- ↑Owner-occupied70.3 / 70.1vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3521.9 / 23.2vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+31.0 / 29.2vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3521.9 / 22.9vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied70.3 / 69.1vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate39.2 / 39.8vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied70.3 / 71.9vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3521.9 / 22.3vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+31.0 / 30.4vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied70.3 / 72.7vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3521.9 / 23.1vs 30.2
- ↑Graduate39.2 / 40.1vs 33.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.