Stratford-on-Avon
West Midlands · County constituency · Stratford-on-Avon
About the Stratford-on-Avon constituency
Stratford-on-Avon is a county constituency in the West Midlands. The sitting MP is Manuela Perteghella (Liberal Democrat), MP since July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats won with 44.3% to 30.8% for the Conservatives, a majority of 7,122 votes on a 69.9% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 31.6% and the Liberal Democrats on 30.8%, a margin of 0.8 points - a projected change of hands from the Liberal Democrats.
Who lives in Stratford-on-Avon? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Stratford-on-Avon vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Stratford-on-Avon
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Stratford-on-Avon within Stratford-on-Avon
Stratford-on-Avon sits entirely within Stratford-on-Avon Council. Stratford-on-Avon was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results with vote counts available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Stratford-on-Avon | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Jul 2026 | Kinwarton | Con GAIN from LD | Con 36% LD 36% Ref 17% |
| 20 Nov 2025 | Quinton | LD HOLD | LD 47% Ref 33% Con 15% |
| 20 Nov 2025 | Salford Priors & Alcester Rural | Ref GAIN from Con | LD 33% Ref 33% Con 28% |
| 1 May 2025 | Alcester West | LD HOLD | LD 33% Ref 23% Con 22% |
| 1 May 2025 | Welford-on-Avon | LD HOLD | LD 46% Ref 31% Con 18% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent result with vote counts available. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alcester East | Lib Dem 54.6%vs Conservative 23.4% | 2023 Lib Dem 66.7%vs Conservative 23.6% | - | 34.2% |
| Alcester West | Lib Dem 47.2%vs Conservative 28.9% | 2023 Lib Dem 40.5%vs Labour 30.7% | - | 46.6% |
| Bidford East | Conservative 36.7%vs Lib Dem 33.7% | 2023 Conservative 41.0%vs Labour 33.8% | - | 30.5% |
| Bidford West | Lib Dem 39.4%vs Conservative 32.7% | 2023 Conservative 45.5%vs Lib Dem 27.1% | - | 30.8% |
| Brailes & Compton | Conservative 38.2%vs Lib Dem 37.9% | 2023 Conservative 49.8%vs Lib Dem 42.4% | - | 43.9% |
| Claverdon & Snitterfield | Lib Dem 34.0%vs Conservative 31.6% | 2023 Green 62.1%vs Conservative 30.3% | - | 47.9% |
| Henley-in-Arden | Conservative 38.1%vs Lib Dem 37.0% | 2023 Lib Dem 57.5%vs Conservative 32.8% | - | 40.5% |
| Kinwarton | Lib Dem 42.2%vs Conservative 34.9% | 2023 Lib Dem 56.6%vs Conservative 33.5% | - | 43.5% |
| Long Marston | Lib Dem 54.4%vs Conservative 24.3% | 2023 Lib Dem 58.4%vs Conservative 25.8% | - | 38.6% |
| Quinton | Conservative 38.8%vs Lib Dem 35.2% | 2023 Lib Dem 43.8%vs Conservative 41.1% | - | 36.2% |
| Salford Priors & Alcester Rural | Conservative 37.4%vs Lib Dem 37.3% | 2023 Conservative 56.9%vs Lib Dem 23.2% | - | 34.1% |
| Shipston North | Conservative 34.9%vs Lib Dem 34.9% | 2023 Green 63.2%vs Conservative 25.5% | - | 38.2% |
| Shipston South | Lib Dem 41.6%vs Conservative 33.1% | 2023 Green 58.2%vs Conservative 41.8% | - | 44.3% |
| Stratford Avenue | Lib Dem 46.5%vs Conservative 27.5% | 2023 Lib Dem 41.9%vs Conservative 32.7% | - | 33.9% |
| Stratford Bishopton | Lib Dem 52.5%vs Conservative 24.8% | 2023 Lib Dem 57.3%vs Conservative 27.9% | - | 39.8% |
| Stratford Clopton | Lib Dem 47.5%vs Conservative 21.9% | 2023 Lib Dem 50.0%vs Labour 30.7% | - | 39.8% |
| Stratford Guildhall & Bridgetown | Lib Dem 55.7%vs Conservative 22.1% | 2023 Lib Dem 68.3%vs Conservative 20.8% | - | 45.5% |
| Stratford Hathaway | Lib Dem 47.6%vs Conservative 20.3% | 2023 Lib Dem 47.1%vs Labour 32.1% | - | 32.3% |
| Stratford Orchard Hill | Lib Dem 51.2%vs Conservative 23.8% | 2023 Lib Dem 53.3%vs Conservative 25.8% | - | 45.7% |
| Stratford Shottery | Lib Dem 55.3%vs Conservative 23.2% | 2023 Lib Dem 63.4%vs Conservative 23.0% | - | 46.9% |
| Stratford Tiddington | Lib Dem 59.8%vs Conservative 21.1% | 2023 Lib Dem 73.1%vs Conservative 18.2% | - | 46.5% |
| Stratford Welcombe | Lib Dem 49.4%vs Conservative 26.3% | 2023 Lib Dem 57.9%vs Conservative 34.8% | - | 45.0% |
| Studley North | Lib Dem 47.0%vs Conservative 29.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 45.7%vs Conservative 38.8% | - | 32.7% |
| Studley South | Lib Dem 49.5%vs Conservative 27.2% | 2023 Lib Dem 53.8%vs Conservative 30.7% | - | 33.8% |
| Tanworth-in-Arden | Conservative 46.6%vs Lib Dem 30.1% | 2023 Conservative 67.8%vs Lib Dem 14.7% | - | 31.0% |
| Tredington | Lib Dem 46.3%vs Conservative 32.5% | 2023 Conservative 44.8%vs Lib Dem 41.6% | - | 44.8% |
| Welford-on-Avon | Lib Dem 46.9%vs Conservative 31.0% | 2023 Lib Dem 73.5%vs Conservative 21.2% | - | 49.3% |
| Wellesbourne North & Rural | Conservative 39.1%vs Lib Dem 27.8% | 2023 Conservative 46.3%vs Lib Dem 40.0% | - | 42.3% |
| Wootton Wawen | Conservative 42.9%vs Lib Dem 31.9% | 2023 Conservative 64.5%vs Lib Dem 19.6% | - | 35.6% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Stratford-on-Avon at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Stratford-on-Avon at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Nadhim Zahawi | 9.5% | 51.5% | 29.1% | 11,346 | 72.7% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Nadhim Zahawi | 13.0% | 57.7% | 12.0% | 22,876 | 72.2%-0.5 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Nadhim Zahawi | 21.9% | 62.9% | 11.9% | 21,958 | 73.8%+1.6 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Nadhim Zahawi 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 11.3% | 60.2% | 24.7% | 19,020 | 74.0%+0.2 |
| 2024 | LD gain from Con | Manuela Perteghella | 7.1% | 30.8% | 44.3% | 7,122 | 69.9%-4.1 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Stratford-on-Avon
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Stratford-on-Avon. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Under 3521.9 / 21.2vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+31.0 / 30.6vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied70.3 / 72.9vs 61.9
- ↑Owner-occupied70.3 / 70.1vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3521.9 / 23.2vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+31.0 / 29.2vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3521.9 / 22.9vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied70.3 / 69.1vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate39.2 / 39.8vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied70.3 / 71.9vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3521.9 / 22.3vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+31.0 / 30.4vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied70.3 / 72.7vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3521.9 / 23.1vs 30.2
- ↑Graduate39.2 / 40.1vs 33.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic model at the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls, built from the British Election Study Internet Panel (Fieldhouse et al.), Census 2021 (ONS) and Scotland's Census 2022 (NRS). The trajectory was recalculated with the current model, introduced in autumn 2026.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.