Derbyshire Dales
East Midlands · County constituency
About the Derbyshire Dales constituency
Derbyshire Dales is a county constituency in the East Midlands. The sitting MP is John Whitby (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 34.6% to 34.0% for the Conservatives, a majority of 350 votes on a 69.9% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 30.1% and Labour on 22.5%, a margin of 7.6 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Derbyshire Dales? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Derbyshire Dales vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Derbyshire Dales
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Derbyshire Dales within Derbyshire Dales and South Derbyshire and 1 other council
Derbyshire Dales crosses council boundaries: Derbyshire Dales (78%), South Derbyshire (14%), Amber Valley (7%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Derbyshire Dales | 78% |
| South Derbyshire | 14% |
| Amber Valley | 7% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Nov 2024 | Calver & Longstone | Con GAIN from Grn | — |
| 5 Jul 2024 | Hatton | Con GAIN from Lab | — |
| 8 May 2024 | Crich & South Wingfield | Con HOLD | — |
| 23 Feb 2024 | Bakewell | Lab GAIN from Con | — |
| 23 Feb 2024 | Norbury | Con HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alport & South West Parishes | Conservative 40.4%vs Labour 37.0% | 2023 Conservative 48.6%vs Labour 25.7% | - | 46.0% |
| Ashbourne North | Conservative 34.5%vs Labour 31.9% | 2023 Lib Dem 46.1%vs Conservative 44.3% | - | 43.3% |
| Ashbourne South | Conservative 34.0%vs Labour 32.1% | 2023 Lib Dem 49.6%vs Conservative 42.4% | - | 40.5% |
| Bakewell | Conservative 38.7%vs Labour 32.7% | 2023 Conservative 54.1%vs Labour 17.9% | - | 50.0% |
| Bonsall & Winster | Labour 41.7%vs Conservative 28.3% | 2023 Green 69.4%vs Conservative 30.6% | - | 44.2% |
| Bradwell | Labour 38.1%vs Conservative 32.0% | 2023 Labour 73.8%vs Conservative 26.2% | - | 42.9% |
| Brailsford | Conservative 39.6%vs Labour 28.8% | 2023 Conservative 57.2%vs Green 17.7% | - | 38.4% |
| Calver & Longstone | Labour 39.0%vs Conservative 31.6% | 2023 Green 54.6%vs Conservative 45.4% | - | 45.0% |
| Chatsworth | Conservative 39.6%vs Labour 29.3% | 2023 Conservative 62.0%vs Lib Dem 23.0% | - | 42.5% |
| Crich & South Wingfield | Conservative 34.6%vs Labour 30.8% | 2023 Conservative 38.1%vs Lib Dem 34.9% | - | 47.5% |
| Cromford & Matlock Bath | Labour 43.4%vs Conservative 26.6% | 2023 Labour 68.8%vs Conservative 31.2% | - | 37.8% |
| Darley Dale | Conservative 34.8%vs Labour 33.4% | 2023 Lib Dem 52.1%vs Conservative 32.1% | - | 49.1% |
| Dovedale, Parwich & Brassington | Conservative 41.4%vs Labour 29.2% | 2023 Conservative 57.8%vs Labour 14.9% | - | 52.7% |
| Doveridge & Sudbury | Conservative 39.3%vs Labour 28.9% | 2023 Conservative 58.0%vs Independent 42.0% | - | 44.1% |
| Hartington & Taddington | Conservative 39.1%vs Labour 29.8% | 2023 Conservative 62.7%vs Lib Dem 18.8% | - | 31.5% |
| Hathersage | Labour 42.0%vs Conservative 27.5% | 2023 Independent 42.9%vs Labour 33.8% | - | 83.4% |
| Hatton | Labour 34.7%vs Conservative 34.2% | 2023 Labour 50.1%vs Conservative 49.9% | - | 25.8% |
| Hilton | Conservative 39.3%vs Labour 30.3% | 2023 Lib Dem 39.0%vs Conservative 38.3% | - | 22.0% |
| Hulland | Conservative 39.0%vs Labour 28.2% | 2023 Conservative 51.4%vs Labour 19.3% | - | 43.2% |
| Matlock East & Tansley | Labour 35.7%vs Conservative 26.7% | 2023 Lib Dem 78.0%vs Labour 11.0% | - | 38.6% |
| Matlock West | Labour 34.5%vs Conservative 25.1% | 2023 Lib Dem 78.6%vs Conservative 14.2% | - | 64.5% |
| Norbury | Conservative 42.5%vs Labour 27.3% | 2023 Conservative 67.3%vs Labour 16.8% | - | 39.4% |
| Tideswell | Labour 36.7%vs Conservative 31.2% | 2023 Green 66.5%vs Conservative 33.5% | - | 41.5% |
| Wirksworth | Labour 45.0%vs Conservative 27.9% | 2023 Labour 72.0%vs Conservative 28.0% | - | 41.8% |
| Youlgrave | Labour 42.9%vs Conservative 26.3% | 2023 Green 43.5%vs Independent 34.2% | - | 49.6% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Derbyshire Dales at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Derbyshire Dales at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Patrick McLoughlin | 19.4% | 52.1% | 22.5% | 13,866 | 73.8% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Patrick McLoughlin | 22.7% | 52.4% | 8.4% | 14,044 | 74.6%+0.8 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Patrick McLoughlin | 31.1% | 60.0% | 6.3% | 14,327 | 76.9%+2.3 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Sarah Dines 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 24.1% | 59.0% | 12.8% | 18,797 | 75.5%-1.4 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | John Whitby | 34.6% | 34.0% | 9.5% | 350 | 69.9%-5.6 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Derbyshire Dales
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Derbyshire Dales. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Under 3521.2 / 21.9vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+30.6 / 31.0vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied72.9 / 70.3vs 61.9
- ↑Owner-occupied72.9 / 71.9vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+30.6 / 30.4vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3521.2 / 22.3vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied72.9 / 73.2vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3521.2 / 19.7vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+30.6 / 33.9vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied72.9 / 72.7vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3521.2 / 23.1vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+30.6 / 28.6vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied72.9 / 71.1vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3521.2 / 21.4vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+30.6 / 33.2vs 22.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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