Arundel and South Downs
South East · County constituency
About the Arundel and South Downs constituency
Arundel and South Downs is a county constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Andrew Griffith (Conservative), first elected in December 2019. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 40.2% to 18.0% for the Liberal Democrats, a majority of 12,134 votes on a 70.2% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 35.3% and Reform UK on 24.6%, a margin of 10.8 points.
Who lives in Arundel and South Downs? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Arundel and South Downs vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Arundel and South Downs
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Arundel and South Downs within Horsham and Chichester and 1 other council
Arundel and South Downs crosses council boundaries: Horsham (43%), Chichester (40%), Arun (17%). None of the constituent district councils were in the 2026 election cycle, but the West Sussex County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Horsham | 43% |
| Chichester | 40% |
| Arun | 17% |
West Sussex County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arundel & Courtwick | Ref | Ref 31% Con 29% Grn 23% | 42.9% |
| Bramber Castle | Grn | Grn 37% Con 22% Ref 22% | 54.6% |
| Fontwell | Grn | Grn 34% Ref 34% Con 21% | 46.8% |
| Henfield | Con | Con 29% Grn 27% Ref 27% | 52.1% |
| Midhurst | LD | LD 40% Con 32% Ref 21% | 50.0% |
| Petworth | Con | Con 40% LD 28% Ref 25% | 52.3% |
| Pulborough | Con | Con 35% Ref 28% Grn 18% | 52.0% |
| Rother Valley | Con | Con 43% LD 28% Ref 17% | 52.0% |
| Storrington | Con | Con 32% Ref 29% Grn 28% | 52.1% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 May 2025 | Midhurst | LD HOLD | LD 41% Con 32% Ref 20% |
| 1 Mar 2024 | Henfield | Grn GAIN from Ind | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arundel & Walberton | Conservative 40.6%vs Labour 18.3% | 2023 Green 56.4%vs Conservative 33.6% | - | 43.9% |
| Barnham | Conservative 37.2%vs Lib Dem 18.0% | 2023 Green 59.1%vs Conservative 33.0% | - | 33.0% |
| Bramber, Upper Beeding & Woodmancote | Conservative 39.6%vs Labour 22.4% | 2023 Green 38.1%vs Conservative 32.5% | - | 54.4% |
| Easebourne | Conservative 44.0%vs Labour 16.7% | 2023 Conservative 58.2%vs Lib Dem 26.5% | - | 38.1% |
| Fernhurst | Conservative 42.4%vs Lib Dem 18.9% | 2023 Conservative 65.3%vs Lib Dem 34.7% | - | 34.3% |
| Fittleworth | Conservative 41.5%vs Lib Dem 19.0% | 2023 Lib Dem 47.5%vs Conservative 45.0% | - | 44.3% |
| Harting | Conservative 30.2%vs Lib Dem 28.1% | 2023 Lib Dem 76.5%vs Conservative 23.5% | - | 43.5% |
| Henfield | Conservative 38.1%vs Labour 21.3% | 2023 Green 29.7%vs Independent 22.6% | - | 63.8% |
| Loxwood | Conservative 34.1%vs Lib Dem 24.2% | 2023 Lib Dem 73.0%vs Conservative 27.0% | - | 44.9% |
| Midhurst | Conservative 37.0%vs Lib Dem 22.0% | 2023 Lib Dem 59.6%vs Conservative 37.0% | - | 40.9% |
| Petworth | Conservative 42.1%vs Lib Dem 20.0% | 2023 Lib Dem 53.5%vs Conservative 39.1% | - | 41.9% |
| Pulborough, Coldwaltham & Amberley | Conservative 44.1%vs Labour 17.3% | 2023 Green 40.0%vs Conservative 36.7% | - | 44.1% |
| Steyning & Ashurst | Conservative 40.2%vs Labour 20.8% | 2023 Green 46.6%vs Conservative 34.6% | - | 40.7% |
| Storrington & Washington | Conservative 39.6%vs Labour 20.0% | 2023 Green 52.5%vs Conservative 36.5% | - | 38.8% |
| West Chiltington, Thakeham & Ashington | Conservative 48.3%vs Lib Dem 16.1% | 2023 Conservative 45.5%vs Green 34.3% | - | 49.5% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Arundel and South Downs at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Arundel and South Downs at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Nick Herbert | 8.6% | 57.8% | 27.9% | 16,691 | 72.9% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Nick Herbert | 11.2% | 60.8% | 7.2% | 26,177 | 73.1%+0.2 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Nick Herbert | 22.7% | 62.4% | 7.9% | 23,883 | 75.8%+2.7 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Andrew Griffith 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 15.7% | 60.4% | 19.0% | 24,105 | 75.5%-0.3 |
| 2024 | Con hold | Andrew Griffith | 17.9% | 40.2% | 18.0% | 12,134 | 70.2%-5.3 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Arundel and South Downs
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Arundel and South Downs. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied73.2 / 72.9vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3519.7 / 21.2vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+33.9 / 30.6vs 22.7
- ↑Age 65+33.9 / 33.2vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied73.2 / 71.1vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3519.7 / 21.4vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied73.2 / 73.3vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+33.9 / 33.5vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3519.7 / 21.6vs 30.2
- ↓Under 3519.7 / 20.6vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+33.9 / 31.6vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied73.2 / 69.8vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3519.7 / 21.9vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied73.2 / 70.3vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+33.9 / 31.0vs 22.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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