Arundel and South Downs
South East · County constituency
About the Arundel and South Downs constituency
Arundel and South Downs is a county constituency in the South East, spanning parts of Horsham, Chichester and neighbouring councils. The sitting MP is Andrew Griffith (Conservative), first elected in December 2019.
At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won Arundel and South Downs with 40.2% of the vote, ahead of the Liberal Democrats on 18.0%, a majority of 12,134 votes. Turnout was 70.2%.
If a general election were held today, PollCheck's projection at the current seven-poll average has the Conservatives on 36.0% and Reform UK on 23.7% in Arundel and South Downs, a margin of 12.3 points. The projection updates automatically as new polls are added.
Demographically, Arundel and South Downs is closely divided in the 2016 EU referendum (an estimated 49.7% voted Leave in 2016). About 37.5% of residents hold a degree, 73.2% of homes are owner-occupied, and the seat has a median age of about 52 (2021 Census).
Across the most recent general elections on record here, the seat has been won by the Conservatives each time.
Who lives in Arundel and South Downs? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Arundel and South Downs vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Arundel and South Downs
Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.
Arundel and South Downs within Horsham and Chichester and 1 other council
Arundel and South Downs crosses multiple council boundaries: Horsham (43%), Chichester (40%), Arun (17%). None of the constituent district councils were in the 2026 election cycle, but the West Sussex County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below. The most recent district ward results are shown after them.
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Horsham | 43% |
| Chichester | 40% |
| Arun | 17% |
West Sussex County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arundel & Courtwick | Ref | Ref 31% Con 29% Grn 23% | 42.9% |
| Bramber Castle | Grn | Grn 37% Con 22% Ref 22% | 54.6% |
| Fontwell | Grn | Grn 34% Ref 34% Con 21% | 46.8% |
| Henfield | Con | Con 29% Grn 27% Ref 27% | 52.1% |
| Midhurst | LD | LD 40% Con 32% Ref 21% | 50.0% |
| Petworth | Con | Con 40% LD 28% Ref 25% | 52.3% |
| Pulborough | Con | Con 35% Ref 28% Grn 18% | 52.0% |
| Rother Valley | Con | Con 43% LD 28% Ref 17% | 52.0% |
| Storrington | Con | Con 32% Ref 29% Grn 28% | 52.1% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 May 2025 | Midhurst | LD HOLD | LD 41% Con 32% Ref 20% |
| 1 Mar 2024 | Henfield | Grn GAIN from Ind | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward. Where the council held a May 2026 election, those results are shown; otherwise we show the most recent available ward result (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024), or, where the seat was uncontested at the last election, the current sitting councillor from OpenCouncilData. The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Arundel and South Downs at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Arundel and South Downs at past general elections?
2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Nick Herbert | 8.6% | 57.8% | 27.9% | 16,691 | 72.9% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Nick Herbert | 11.2% | 60.8% | 7.2% | 26,177 | 73.1%+0.2 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Nick Herbert | 22.7% | 62.4% | 7.9% | 23,883 | 75.8%+2.7 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Andrew Griffith 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 15.7% | 60.4% | 19.0% | 24,105 | 75.5%-0.3 |
| 2024 | Con hold | Andrew Griffith | 17.9% | 40.2% | 18.0% | 12,134 | 70.2%-5.3 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Arundel and South Downs
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Arundel and South Downs. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied73.2 / 72.9vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3519.7 / 21.2vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+33.9 / 30.6vs 22.7
- ↑Age 65+33.9 / 33.2vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied73.2 / 71.1vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3519.7 / 21.4vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied73.2 / 73.3vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+33.9 / 33.5vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3519.7 / 21.6vs 30.2
- ↓Under 3519.7 / 20.6vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+33.9 / 31.6vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied73.2 / 69.8vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3519.7 / 21.9vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied73.2 / 70.3vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+33.9 / 31.0vs 22.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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