Lewes
South East · County constituency
About the Lewes constituency
Lewes is a county constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is James MacCleary (Liberal Democrat), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats won with 50.6% to 26.8% for the Conservatives, a majority of 12,624 votes on a 69.8% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Liberal Democrats on 46.2% and Reform UK on 21.6%, a margin of 24.6 points.
Who lives in Lewes? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Lewes vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Lewes
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Lewes within Lewes and Wealden
Lewes crosses council boundaries: Lewes (70%), Wealden (30%). None of the constituent district councils were in the 2026 election cycle, but the East Sussex County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Lewes | 70% |
| Wealden | 30% |
East Sussex County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lewes | Grn | Grn 50% LD 40% Ref 8% | 63.8% |
| Newhaven & Bishopstone | LD | LD 49% Ref 32% Grn 9% | 51.3% |
| Ouse Valley West & Downs | LD | LD 53% Ref 21% Grn 13% | 51.3% |
| Polegate & Watermill | Ref | Ref 36% Independent 34% LD 12% | 43.0% |
| Ringmer & Lewes Bridge | Grn | Grn 42% LD 35% Ref 14% | 58.2% |
| Seaford North | LD | LD 33% Ref 31% Grn 26% | 55.9% |
| Seaford South | LD | LD 55% Ref 23% Grn 11% | 50.9% |
| Willingdon & South Downs | Independent | Independent 36% Ref 26% LD 19% | 51.9% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 May 2025 | Newhaven North | LD HOLD | LD 52% Ref 29% Grn 9% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arlington | Lib Dem 41.1%vs Conservative 35.4% | 2023 Green 54.6%vs Conservative 36.5% | - | 50.6% |
| Ditchling & Westmeston | Lib Dem 50.8%vs Conservative 30.4% | 2023 Lib Dem 34.3%vs Green 33.2% | - | 55.3% |
| Kingston | Lib Dem 61.6%vs Conservative 21.9% | 2023 Lib Dem 47.5%vs Green 35.9% | - | 58.1% |
| Lewes Bridge | Lib Dem 61.2%vs Conservative 17.2% | 2023 Green 46.0%vs Lib Dem 35.0% | - | 57.2% |
| Lewes Castle | Lib Dem 53.0%vs Conservative 18.8% | 2023 Green 44.5%vs Labour 31.9% | - | 53.5% |
| Lewes Priory | Lib Dem 56.2%vs Conservative 19.5% | 2023 Green 48.6%vs Lib Dem 29.3% | - | 61.3% |
| Lower Willingdon | Lib Dem 41.5%vs Conservative 30.3% | 2023 Independent 54.7%vs Conservative 31.1% | - | 41.3% |
| Newhaven North | Lib Dem 53.4%vs Conservative 23.4% | 2023 Lib Dem 56.8%vs Independent 24.2% | - | 35.1% |
| Newhaven South | Lib Dem 54.2%vs Conservative 20.5% | 2023 Lib Dem 52.0%vs Conservative 21.3% | - | 33.0% |
| Ouse Valley & Ringmer | Lib Dem 48.3%vs Conservative 28.4% | 2023 Green 53.0%vs Conservative 29.4% | - | 45.2% |
| Plumpton, Streat, East Chiltington & St John | Lib Dem 67.3%vs Conservative 19.8% | 2023 Lib Dem 66.6%vs Conservative 23.1% | - | - |
| Polegate Central | Lib Dem 46.6%vs Conservative 30.0% | 2023 Conservative 37.9%vs Lib Dem 25.0% | - | 29.1% |
| Polegate North | Lib Dem 42.7%vs Conservative 30.4% | 2023 Independent 58.1%vs Conservative 30.4% | - | 31.8% |
| Polegate South & Willingdon Watermill | Lib Dem 43.4%vs Conservative 29.6% | 2023 Independent 54.1%vs Conservative 30.4% | - | 36.1% |
| Seaford Central | Lib Dem 53.3%vs Conservative 24.3% | 2023 Lib Dem 46.0%vs Labour 22.8% | - | 38.7% |
| Seaford East | Conservative 40.7%vs Lib Dem 38.0% | 2023 Green 44.5%vs Conservative 37.0% | - | 47.8% |
| Seaford North | Lib Dem 47.2%vs Conservative 28.4% | 2023 Green 41.3%vs Conservative 29.5% | - | 35.4% |
| Seaford South | Lib Dem 54.5%vs Conservative 26.3% | 2023 Lib Dem 54.1%vs Conservative 26.8% | - | 45.9% |
| Seaford West | Lib Dem 50.2%vs Conservative 30.7% | 2023 Lib Dem 47.1%vs Conservative 37.7% | - | 48.7% |
| South Downs | Lib Dem 49.8%vs Conservative 32.0% | 2023 Conservative 47.9%vs Lib Dem 40.3% | - | 52.5% |
| Stone Cross | Lib Dem 46.8%vs Conservative 29.2% | 2023 Conservative 46.5%vs Lib Dem 33.9% | - | 23.5% |
| Upper Willingdon | Lib Dem 41.2%vs Conservative 31.3% | 2023 Independent 55.2%vs Conservative 26.8% | - | 36.2% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Lewes at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Lewes at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | LD hold | Norman Baker | 5.0% | 36.7% | 52.0% | 7,647 | 72.9% |
| 2015 | Con gain from LD | Maria Caulfield | 9.9% | 38.0% | 35.9% | 1,083 | 72.7%-0.2 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Maria Caulfield | 11.2% | 49.5% | 39.3% | 5,508 | 76.4%+3.7 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Maria Caulfield 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 7.1% | 48.5% | 41.1% | 4,126 | 74.0%-2.4 |
| 2024 | LD gain from Con | James MacCleary | 6.7% | 26.8% | 50.6% | 12,624 | 69.8%-4.2 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Lewes
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Lewes. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied73.3 / 73.2vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+33.5 / 33.9vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3521.6 / 19.7vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied73.3 / 71.3vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3521.6 / 21.6vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+33.5 / 31.2vs 22.7
- ↑Age 65+33.5 / 32.1vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3521.6 / 21.4vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied73.3 / 70.3vs 61.9
- ↑Owner-occupied73.3 / 72.9vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3521.6 / 21.2vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+33.5 / 30.6vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied73.3 / 75.9vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+33.5 / 29.3vs 22.7
- ↓Social rent9.6 / 11.3vs 16.8
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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