Lewes
South East · County constituency
About the Lewes constituency
Lewes is a county constituency in the South East, spanning parts of Lewes, Wealden and neighbouring councils. The sitting MP is James MacCleary (Liberal Democrat), first elected in July 2024.
At the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats won Lewes with 50.6% of the vote, ahead of the Conservatives on 26.8%, a majority of 12,624 votes. Turnout was 69.8%.
If a general election were held today, PollCheck's projection at the current seven-poll average has the Liberal Democrats on 48.2% and Reform UK on 19.5% in Lewes, a margin of 28.6 points. The projection updates automatically as new polls are added.
Demographically, Lewes is closely divided in the 2016 EU referendum (an estimated 47.1% voted Leave in 2016). About 34.7% of residents hold a degree, 73.3% of homes are owner-occupied, and the seat has a median age of about 50 (2021 Census).
Across the last 5 general elections on record, the seat has been won by the Conservatives 3 times, the Liberal Democrats 2 times (earlier years may be on predecessor boundaries).
Who lives in Lewes? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Lewes vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Lewes
Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.
Lewes within Lewes and Wealden
Lewes crosses multiple council boundaries: Lewes (70%), Wealden (30%). None of the constituent district councils were in the 2026 election cycle, but the East Sussex County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below. The most recent district ward results are shown after them.
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Lewes | 70% |
| Wealden | 30% |
East Sussex County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lewes | Grn | Grn 50% LD 40% Ref 8% | 63.8% |
| Newhaven & Bishopstone | LD | LD 49% Ref 32% Grn 9% | 51.3% |
| Ouse Valley West & Downs | LD | LD 53% Ref 21% Grn 13% | 51.3% |
| Polegate & Watermill | Ref | Ref 36% Independent 34% LD 12% | 43.0% |
| Ringmer & Lewes Bridge | Grn | Grn 42% LD 35% Ref 14% | 58.2% |
| Seaford North | LD | LD 33% Ref 31% Grn 26% | 55.9% |
| Seaford South | LD | LD 55% Ref 23% Grn 11% | 50.9% |
| Willingdon & South Downs | Independent | Independent 36% Ref 26% LD 19% | 51.9% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 May 2025 | Newhaven North | LD HOLD | LD 52% Ref 29% Grn 9% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward. Where the council held a May 2026 election, those results are shown; otherwise we show the most recent available ward result (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024), or, where the seat was uncontested at the last election, the current sitting councillor from OpenCouncilData. The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Lewes at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Lewes at past general elections?
2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | LD hold | Norman Baker | 5.0% | 36.7% | 52.0% | 7,647 | 72.9% |
| 2015 | Con gain from LD | Maria Caulfield | 9.9% | 38.0% | 35.9% | 1,083 | 72.7%-0.2 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Maria Caulfield | 11.2% | 49.5% | 39.3% | 5,508 | 76.4%+3.7 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Maria Caulfield 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 7.1% | 48.5% | 41.1% | 4,126 | 74.0%-2.4 |
| 2024 | LD gain from Con | James MacCleary | 6.7% | 26.8% | 50.6% | 12,624 | 69.8%-4.2 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Lewes
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Lewes. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied73.3 / 73.2vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+33.5 / 33.9vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3521.6 / 19.7vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied73.3 / 71.3vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3521.6 / 21.6vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+33.5 / 31.2vs 22.7
- ↑Age 65+33.5 / 32.1vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3521.6 / 21.4vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied73.3 / 70.3vs 61.9
- ↑Owner-occupied73.3 / 72.9vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3521.6 / 21.2vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+33.5 / 30.6vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied73.3 / 75.9vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+33.5 / 29.3vs 22.7
- ↓Social rent9.6 / 11.3vs 16.8
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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