Central Devon
South West · County constituency
About the Central Devon constituency
Central Devon is a county constituency in the South West. The sitting MP is Sir Mel Stride (Conservative), first elected in May 2010. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 31.5% to 31.4% for Labour, a majority of 61 votes on a 70.9% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 31.3% and the Conservatives on 26.1%, a margin of 5.2 points - a projected change of hands from the Conservatives.
Who lives in Central Devon? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Central Devon vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Central Devon
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Central Devon within Teignbridge and Mid Devon and 1 other council
Central Devon crosses council boundaries: Teignbridge (49%), Mid Devon (29%), West Devon (22%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Teignbridge | 49% |
| Mid Devon | 29% |
| West Devon | 22% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov 2025 | Okehampton South | LD GAIN from Grn | LD 57% Con 24% Other 19% |
| 9 Oct 2025 | Kenn Valley | LD GAIN from Con | LD 50% Ref 23% Con 10% |
| 26 Jun 2025 | Crediton Lawrence | LD HOLD | LD 65% Ref 27% Lab 8% |
| 9 May 2024 | Ashburton & Buckfastleigh | LD HOLD | — |
| 8 Mar 2024 | Upper Yeo & Taw | LD GAIN from Ind | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashburton & Buckfastleigh | Labour 30.9%vs Conservative 28.4% | 2023 Lib Dem 39.3%vs Conservative 27.1% | - | 49.8% |
| Bovey | Labour 31.5%vs Conservative 30.4% | 2023 Conservative 33.5%vs Lib Dem 30.4% | - | 45.6% |
| Bradninch | Labour 31.5%vs Lib Dem 26.4% | 2023 Lib Dem 82.2%vs Labour 11.6% | - | 48.4% |
| Cadbury | Conservative 39.1%vs Labour 30.2% | 2023 Conservative 41.5%vs Lib Dem 24.4% | - | 44.9% |
| Chagford | Labour 38.8%vs Conservative 28.0% | 2023 Green 65.3%vs Conservative 34.7% | - | 57.8% |
| Chudleigh | Labour 29.7%vs Conservative 29.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 53.4%vs Conservative 31.4% | - | 40.3% |
| Crediton Boniface | Labour 30.2%vs Conservative 28.3% | 2023 Lib Dem 64.4%vs Independent 14.0% | - | 33.0% |
| Crediton Lawrence | Labour 35.4%vs Conservative 26.7% | 2023 Lib Dem 67.5%vs Labour 17.8% | - | 38.0% |
| Drewsteignton | Conservative 32.5%vs Labour 31.8% | 2023 Green 51.1%vs Conservative 48.9% | - | 42.5% |
| Exbourne | Labour 33.7%vs Conservative 31.2% | 2023 Conservative 54.9%vs Lib Dem 25.0% | - | 48.6% |
| Hatherleigh | Labour 34.4%vs Conservative 32.1% | 2023 Conservative 77.7%vs Green 22.3% | - | 34.4% |
| Haytor | Conservative 29.1%vs Labour 29.1% | 2023 Independent 61.1%vs Others 19.6% | - | 39.5% |
| Kenn Valley | Conservative 31.9%vs Labour 26.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 49.8%vs Conservative 34.4% | - | 42.6% |
| Moretonhampstead | Conservative 33.6%vs Labour 26.1% | 2023 Lib Dem 48.2%vs Conservative 35.8% | - | 47.6% |
| Okehampton North | Labour 31.3%vs Conservative 29.9% | 2023 Conservative 38.3%vs Independent 30.0% | - | 53.7% |
| Okehampton South | Labour 39.0%vs Conservative 27.3% | 2023 Conservative 39.8%vs Independent 30.7% | - | 43.0% |
| Sandford & Creedy | Conservative 35.4%vs Labour 34.5% | 2023 Green 52.5%vs Conservative 47.5% | - | 42.5% |
| Silverton | Labour 35.6%vs Conservative 29.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 85.3%vs Conservative 14.7% | - | 37.8% |
| South Tawton | Labour 40.3%vs Conservative 26.6% | 2023 Green 68.2%vs Conservative 31.8% | - | 45.3% |
| Taw Vale | Conservative 40.2%vs Labour 29.3% | 2023 Lib Dem 53.7%vs Conservative 46.3% | - | 48.1% |
| Teign Valley | Conservative 34.7%vs Labour 27.6% | 2023 Conservative 46.5%vs Lib Dem 41.3% | - | 43.6% |
| Upper Yeo & Taw | Conservative 35.9%vs Labour 28.2% | 2023 Conservative 49.2%vs Lib Dem 41.6% | - | 41.9% |
| Way | Conservative 37.8%vs Labour 33.3% | 2023 Conservative 50.5%vs Green 49.5% | - | 40.2% |
| Yeo | Conservative 38.2%vs Labour 29.8% | 2023 Conservative 41.1%vs Lib Dem 39.3% | - | 51.1% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Central Devon at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Central Devon at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Mel Stride | 6.9% | 51.5% | 34.4% | 9,230 | 75.7% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Mel Stride | 12.8% | 52.2% | 12.2% | 21,265 | 74.9%-0.8 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Mel Stride | 27.0% | 54.1% | 11.7% | 15,680 | 77.8%+2.9 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Mel Stride 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 24.8% | 55.3% | 15.0% | 17,300 | 77.2%-0.6 |
| 2024 | Con hold | Mel Stride | 31.4% | 31.5% | 15.4% | 61 | 70.9%-6.3 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Central Devon
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Central Devon. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied71.3 / 70.9vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3521.6 / 21.2vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+31.2 / 31.4vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3521.6 / 21.4vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+31.2 / 32.1vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied71.3 / 70.3vs 61.9
- ↑Owner-occupied71.3 / 72.9vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3521.6 / 21.2vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+31.2 / 30.6vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied71.3 / 70.0vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+31.2 / 28.9vs 22.7
- ↓Social rent9.9 / 11.6vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied71.3 / 75.2vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+31.2 / 31.5vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3521.6 / 22.2vs 30.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.