Constituency profile

Skipton and Ripon

Yorkshire and The Humber · County constituency · North Yorkshire borough

Sir Julian Smith MP
Sitting MP

Sir Julian Smith

Conservative

First elected May 2010

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
Yorkshire and The Humber
County constituency, North Yorkshire council
Last 5 GE winners
CCCCC
Conservative 5/5
EU referendum 2016
53.2% Leave
UK average 51.9%; +1.3pp above mean
Current outlook
Conservative +10.8pp
vs Reform UK 24.3%
NorthernBrexit-marginal

About the Skipton and Ripon constituency

Skipton and Ripon is a county constituency in Yorkshire and The Humber. The sitting MP is Sir Julian Smith (Conservative), first elected in May 2010. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 35.2% to 32.1% for Labour, a majority of 1,650 votes on a 67.5% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 35.1% and Reform UK on 24.3%, a margin of 10.8 points.

Who lives in Skipton and Ripon? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
53.2%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
37.6%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
14.7%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
70.9%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
28.4%
UK average ~36%
Median age
50.5
UK median ~40
Age 65+
31.4%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
21.2%
UK average ~28%

How did Skipton and Ripon vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Con hold · majority 1,650 votes (3.1pp) · turnout 67.5%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Skipton and Ripon

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Skipton and Ripon within North Yorkshire

Skipton and Ripon sits entirely within North Yorkshire Council. North Yorkshire was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
North Yorkshire
61 LSOAs
100%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
Aire ValleyLabour 36.6%vs Conservative 28.6%2022 Green 79.3%vs Conservative 20.7%--
Bentham & IngletonConservative 42.7%vs Labour 27.3%2022 Conservative 50.9%vs Labour 20.1%--
Glusburn, Cross Hills & Sutton-in-CravenLabour 31.8%vs Conservative 31.6%2022 Independent 52.6%vs Conservative 20.7%--
Masham & FountainsConservative 36.8%vs Labour 29.9%2022 Conservative 44.2%vs Independent 30.3%-39.3%
Mid CravenConservative 39.0%vs Labour 30.3%2022 Conservative 58.0%vs Green 42.0%-24.9%
Pateley Bridge & NidderdaleConservative 37.0%vs Labour 29.6%2022 Lib Dem 53.5%vs Conservative 43.1%-41.8%
Ripon Minster & MoorsideLabour 37.8%vs Conservative 26.9%2022 Independent 69.2%vs Lib Dem 15.9%-33.0%
Ripon Ure Bank & SpaLabour 35.7%vs Conservative 29.1%2022 Lib Dem 40.6%vs Independent 30.3%-38.3%
Settle & PenyghentConservative 41.7%vs Labour 27.4%2022 Conservative 55.3%vs Labour 22.4%-42.0%
Skipton East & SouthLabour 39.2%vs Conservative 27.8%2022 Independent 42.2%vs Labour 32.5%--
Skipton North & Embsay-with-EastbyLabour 37.1%vs Conservative 29.9%2022 Green 34.7%vs Independent 29.8%--
Skipton West & West CravenLabour 34.8%vs Conservative 33.8%2022 Independent 30.1%vs Labour 30.1%--
Washburn & BirstwithConservative 39.6%vs Labour 29.6%2022 Conservative 45.3%vs Lib Dem 36.2%-37.1%
Wathvale & Bishop MonktonConservative 39.2%vs Labour 30.9%2022 Conservative 56.8%vs Lib Dem 23.8%-34.0%
WharfedaleConservative 47.9%vs Labour 23.9%2022 Conservative 61.0%vs Green 16.3%--

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Skipton and Ripon at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Skipton and Ripon at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010Con holdJulian Smith10.0%50.6%32.4%3.5% UKIP-3.5%9,95070.7%
2015Con holdJulian Smith17.4%55.4%7.4%14.0% UKIP5.7%-20,76171.2%+0.5
2017Con holdJulian Smith28.3%62.7%0%-6.4%2.6%19,98574.4%+3.2
2019notionalConservative winnerJulian Smith 2019 MP, pre-review boundary19.2%58.9%15.2%-4.7%2.0%22,51774.0%-0.4
2024Con holdJulian Smith32.1%35.2%7.8%15.9% Ref6.4%2.4%1,65067.5%-6.5

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Skipton and Ripon

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Skipton and Ripon. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.