Westmorland and Lonsdale
North West · County constituency · Westmorland and Furness borough
About the Westmorland and Lonsdale constituency
Westmorland and Lonsdale is a county constituency in the North West. The sitting MP is Tim Farron (Liberal Democrat), first elected in May 2005. At the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats won with 62.7% to 19.4% for the Conservatives, a majority of 21,472 votes on a 68.8% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Liberal Democrats on 55.9% and Reform UK on 18.8%, a margin of 37.1 points.
Who lives in Westmorland and Lonsdale? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Westmorland and Lonsdale vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Westmorland and Lonsdale
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Westmorland and Lonsdale within Westmorland and Furness
Westmorland and Lonsdale sits entirely within Westmorland and Furness Council. Westmorland and Furness was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Westmorland and Furness | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Mar 2025 | Eamont and Shap | LD HOLD | — |
| 5 Nov 2024 | Kirkby Stephen and Tebay | LD GAIN from Con | — |
| 19 Oct 2024 | Grange and Cartmel | LD HOLD | — |
| 9 May 2024 | Grange and Cartmel | LD HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Appleby and Brough | Lib Dem 60.9%vs Conservative 19.9% | 2022 Lib Dem 45.5%vs Independent 31.5% | - | 40.0% |
| Bowness and Lyth | Lib Dem 58.8%vs Conservative 24.8% | 2022 Lib Dem 53.1%vs Conservative 41.5% | - | 48.0% |
| Coniston and Hawkshead | Lib Dem 63.9%vs Conservative 21.1% | 2022 Lib Dem 63.9%vs Conservative 27.7% | - | 51.0% |
| Eamont and Shap | Lib Dem 61.6%vs Conservative 21.1% | 2022 Lib Dem 65.7%vs Conservative 34.3% | - | 46.0% |
| Eden and Lyvennet Vale | Lib Dem 59.2%vs Conservative 22.4% | 2022 Lib Dem 51.4%vs Conservative 35.1% | - | 42.0% |
| Grange and Cartmel | Lib Dem 63.8%vs Conservative 18.2% | 2022 Lib Dem 59.7%vs Conservative 22.3% | - | 50.0% |
| Greystoke and Ullswater | Lib Dem 63.7%vs Conservative 19.6% | 2022 Lib Dem 70.8%vs Conservative 29.2% | - | 48.0% |
| Kendal Castle | Lib Dem 63.3%vs Conservative 19.6% | 2022 Lib Dem 64.0%vs Conservative 21.9% | - | 43.0% |
| Kendal Highgate | Lib Dem 62.4%vs Conservative 14.3% | 2022 Lib Dem 62.0%vs Conservative 16.4% | - | 38.0% |
| Kendal Nether | Lib Dem 65.9%vs Conservative 14.4% | 2022 Lib Dem 66.3%vs Conservative 17.0% | - | 38.0% |
| Kendal South | Lib Dem 62.3%vs Conservative 19.7% | 2022 Lib Dem 68.7%vs Conservative 21.9% | - | 48.0% |
| Kendal Strickland and Fell | Lib Dem 66.6%vs Conservative 13.6% | 2022 Lib Dem 56.0%vs Green 28.4% | - | 49.0% |
| Kirkby Stephen and Tebay | Lib Dem 54.3%vs Conservative 26.8% | 2022 Lib Dem 43.6%vs Conservative 39.2% | - | 42.0% |
| Levens and Crooklands | Lib Dem 46.7%vs Conservative 23.9% | 2022 Lib Dem 64.4%vs Conservative 31.4% | - | 55.0% |
| Sedbergh and Kirkby Lonsdale | Conservative 35.5%vs Lib Dem 25.8% | 2022 Lib Dem 64.0%vs Conservative 32.1% | - | 52.0% |
| Upper Kent | Lib Dem 63.4%vs Conservative 19.7% | 2022 Lib Dem 60.3%vs Conservative 26.4% | - | 47.0% |
| Windermere and Ambleside | Lib Dem 62.3%vs Conservative 19.4% | 2022 Lib Dem 70.1%vs Conservative 25.9% | - | 46.0% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Westmorland and Lonsdale at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Westmorland and Lonsdale at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | LD hold | Tim Farron | 2.2% | 36.2% | 60.0% | 12,264 | 76.9% |
| 2015 | LD hold | Tim Farron | 5.4% | 33.2% | 51.5% | 8,949 | 74.3%-2.6 |
| 2017 | LD hold | Tim Farron | 9.3% | 44.3% | 45.8% | 777 | 77.9%+3.6 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Neil Hudson Penrith and The Border MP, pre-review boundary | 6.9% | 50.2% | 40.7% | 5,140 | 74.9%-3.0 |
| 2024 | LD gain from Con | Tim Farron | 4.7% | 19.4% | 62.7% | 21,472 | 68.8%-6.1 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Westmorland and Lonsdale
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Westmorland and Lonsdale. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Under 3521.4 / 21.6vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+32.1 / 31.2vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied70.3 / 71.3vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+32.1 / 31.6vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3521.4 / 20.6vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied70.3 / 69.8vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3521.4 / 21.2vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+32.1 / 31.4vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied70.3 / 70.9vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3521.4 / 21.2vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied70.3 / 72.9vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+32.1 / 30.6vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied70.3 / 70.1vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3521.4 / 23.2vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+32.1 / 29.2vs 22.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.