Gower
Wales · County constituency · Swansea borough
About the Gower constituency
Gower is a county constituency in Wales. The sitting MP is Tonia Antoniazzi (Labour), first elected in June 2017. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 43.4% to 18.9% for the Conservatives, a majority of 11,567 votes on a 62.0% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 24.2% and Labour on 23.7%, a margin of 0.5 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Gower? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Gower vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Gower
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
How Gower voted at the Senedd election (7 May 2026)
Gower sits entirely within the Senedd constituency of Gŵyr Abertawe. Senedd elections use a closed-list proportional system; each Senedd seat returns six members.
| Senedd constituency | Share of Gower | Winner | Runner-up | Seats (6 per constituency) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gŵyr Abertawe | 100% | Plaid Cymru 31.9% | Reform UK 27.5% | 3 Plaid Cymru, 2 Reform UK, 1 Labour |
Senedd 2026 results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new 16-seat Senedd boundary.
Gower within Swansea
Gower sits entirely within Swansea Council. Swansea was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Swansea | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Jun 2026 | Mumbles | Con HOLD | Con 37% Lab 18% Ref 18% |
| 28 May 2026 | Fairwood | LD GAIN from Con | LD 29% Lab 23% Other 21% |
| 29 Mar 2025 | Penllergaer | Ind GAIN from Other | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bishopston | Labour 39.8%vs Conservative 25.8% | 2022 Conservative 62.1%vs Labour 29.7% | - | - |
| Clydach | Labour 37.3%vs Reform 26.5% | 2022 Independent 50.6%vs Labour 36.2% | - | - |
| Cockett | Labour 47.3%vs Reform 19.9% | 2022 Labour 70.9%vs Lib Dem 12.3% | - | - |
| Dunvant and Killay | Labour 47.2%vs Reform 16.0% | 2022 Lib Dem 40.9%vs Labour 39.5% | - | - |
| Fairwood | Labour 34.6%vs Conservative 26.7% | 2022 Conservative 40.6%vs Labour 31.9% | - | - |
| Gorseinon and Penyrheol | Labour 51.2%vs Reform 17.8% | 2022 Labour 82.3%vs Conservative 7.1% | - | - |
| Gower | Conservative 33.3%vs Labour 32.4% | 2022 Conservative 56.2%vs Labour 26.1% | - | - |
| Gowerton | Labour 41.0%vs Reform 18.9% | 2022 Independent 33.8%vs Labour 33.4% | - | - |
| Llangyfelach | Labour 40.9%vs Reform 23.3% | 2022 Others 65.9%vs Labour 22.8% | - | - |
| Llwchwr | Labour 45.3%vs Reform 18.2% | 2022 Labour 66.7%vs Plaid Cymru 18.4% | - | - |
| Mayals | Labour 37.8%vs Conservative 23.6% | 2022 Green 40.4%vs Conservative 29.4% | - | - |
| Mumbles | Labour 38.2%vs Conservative 28.9% | 2022 Conservative 50.0%vs Labour 37.3% | - | - |
| Pen-clawdd | Labour 48.4%vs Conservative 15.4% | 2022 Labour 60.9%vs Plaid Cymru 22.7% | - | - |
| Penllergaer | Labour 33.9%vs Reform 25.9% | 2022 Others 87.8%vs Labour 12.2% | - | - |
| Pennard | Labour 31.9%vs Conservative 22.8% | 2022 Independent 50.2%vs Conservative 25.9% | - | - |
| Pontarddulais | Labour 39.4%vs Reform 18.7% | 2022 Independent 48.3%vs Labour 41.6% | - | - |
| Pontlliw and Tircoed | Labour 43.3%vs Conservative 24.8% | 2022 Labour 51.5%vs Independent 48.5% | - | - |
| Waunarlwydd | Labour 53.6%vs Reform 17.7% | 2022 Labour 68.2%vs Green 21.7% | - | - |
| West Cross | Labour 45.5%vs Conservative 18.6% | 2022 Labour 58.9%vs Conservative 34.7% | - | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Gower at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Gower at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Martin Caton | 38.4% | 32.0% | 19.1% | 2,683 | 67.5% |
| 2015 | Con gain from Lab | Byron Davies | 37.0% | 37.1% | 3.6% | 27 | 69.2%+1.7 |
| 2017 | Lab gain from Con | Tonia Antoniazzi | 49.9% | 42.7% | 2.0% | 3,269 | 73.3%+4.1 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Tonia Antoniazzi 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 45.8% | 39.9% | 5.9% | 3,181 | 70.6%-2.7 |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Tonia Antoniazzi | 43.4% | 18.9% | 5.5% | 11,567 | 62.0%-8.6 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Gower
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Gower. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied75.9 / 76.4vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent12.4 / 11.5vs 20.2
- ↑Age 65+29.3 / 29.1vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied75.9 / 72.9vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+29.3 / 30.6vs 22.7
- ↓Social rent11.3 / 11.5vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied75.9 / 78.6vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent12.4 / 12.9vs 20.2
- ↓Under 3524.5 / 23.7vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied75.9 / 74.4vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent12.4 / 11.8vs 20.2
- ↓Under 3524.5 / 24.9vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied75.9 / 75.5vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+29.3 / 28.9vs 22.7
- ↓Private rent12.4 / 13.8vs 20.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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