Mid Derbyshire
East Midlands · County constituency
About the Mid Derbyshire constituency
Mid Derbyshire is a county constituency in the East Midlands. The sitting MP is Jonathan Davies (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 36.5% to 32.5% for the Conservatives, a majority of 1,878 votes on a 68.0% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 32.3% and the Conservatives on 28.0%, a margin of 4.3 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Mid Derbyshire? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Mid Derbyshire vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Mid Derbyshire
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Mid Derbyshire within Derby and Amber Valley and 1 other council
Mid Derbyshire crosses council boundaries: Derby (47%), Amber Valley (33%), Erewash (20%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Derby | 47% |
| Amber Valley | 33% |
| Erewash | 20% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allestree | Conservative 39.8%vs Labour 35.1% | 2023 Conservative 49.8%vs Labour 27.7% | - | 45.0% |
| Alport & South West Parishes | Conservative 40.4%vs Labour 37.0% | 2023 Conservative 48.6%vs Labour 25.7% | - | 46.0% |
| Belper East | Labour 41.6%vs Conservative 25.5% | 2023 Labour 29.8%vs Others 27.1% | - | 40.7% |
| Belper North | Labour 46.1%vs Conservative 26.9% | 2023 Labour 33.5%vs Conservative 25.4% | - | 49.2% |
| Belper South | Labour 43.1%vs Conservative 25.3% | 2023 Green 58.9%vs Conservative 17.7% | - | 33.1% |
| Chaddesden North | Labour 44.8%vs Conservative 21.5% | 2023 Labour 36.6%vs Lib Dem 35.8% | - | 24.0% |
| Duffield & Quarndon | Labour 28.3%vs Conservative 27.7% | 2023 Green 67.0%vs Conservative 27.6% | - | 51.8% |
| Little Eaton & Stanley | Labour 35.3%vs Conservative 33.5% | 2023 Conservative 48.0%vs Labour 40.3% | - | 40.9% |
| Oakwood | Conservative 37.2%vs Labour 34.1% | 2023 Conservative 64.2%vs Labour 21.7% | - | 35.0% |
| Ockbrook & Borrowash | Labour 34.7%vs Conservative 27.4% | 2023 Independent 44.6%vs Conservative 34.2% | - | 35.4% |
| Spondon | Conservative 36.6%vs Labour 36.0% | 2023 Conservative 52.4%vs Labour 32.9% | - | 32.1% |
| West Hallam & Dale Abbey | Conservative 30.6%vs Labour 28.3% | 2023 Conservative 43.5%vs Lib Dem 42.4% | - | 35.0% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Mid Derbyshire at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Mid Derbyshire at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Pauline Latham | 24.5% | 48.3% | 20.5% | 11,292 | 71.6% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Pauline Latham | 25.4% | 52.2% | 4.8% | 12,774 | 70.7%-0.9 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Pauline Latham | 35.5% | 58.6% | 3.6% | 11,616 | 74.7%+4.0 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Pauline Latham 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 27.0% | 59.6% | 9.6% | 16,816 | 73.6%-1.1 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Jonathan Davies | 36.5% | 32.5% | 5.0% | 1,878 | 68.0%-5.6 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Mid Derbyshire
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Mid Derbyshire. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied78.6 / 76.4vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent12.9 / 11.5vs 20.2
- ↓Under 3523.7 / 23.7vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied78.6 / 78.0vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent7.8 / 8.8vs 16.8
- ↓Private rent12.9 / 12.3vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied78.6 / 76.6vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent7.8 / 7.5vs 16.8
- ↓Under 3523.7 / 23.3vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied78.6 / 76.1vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent7.8 / 9.3vs 16.8
- ↓Private rent12.9 / 13.3vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied78.6 / 77.5vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent12.9 / 10.6vs 20.2
- ↓Under 3523.7 / 24.2vs 30.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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