Sussex Weald
South East · County constituency · Wealden borough
About the Sussex Weald constituency
Sussex Weald is a county constituency in the South East, covering most or all of Wealden. The sitting MP is Ms Nusrat Ghani (Conservative), first elected in May 2015.
At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won Sussex Weald with 34.1% of the vote, ahead of the Liberal Democrats on 20.2%, a majority of 6,842 votes. Turnout was 67.5%.
If a general election were held today, PollCheck's projection at the current seven-poll average has Reform UK on 30.7% and the Conservatives on 27.9% in Sussex Weald, a margin of 2.8 points, a projected change from the Conservatives since 2024. The projection updates automatically as new polls are added.
Demographically, Sussex Weald is a Leave-leaning area (an estimated 55.2% voted Leave in 2016). About 32.8% of residents hold a degree, 76.1% of homes are owner-occupied, and the seat has a median age of about 49 (2021 Census).
Across the most recent general elections on record here, the seat has been won by the Conservatives each time.
Who lives in Sussex Weald? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Sussex Weald vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Sussex Weald
Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.
Sussex Weald within Wealden
The Westminster constituency of Sussex Weald sits entirely within Wealden Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - Wealden District Council was not itself in the 2026 election cycle, but the East Sussex County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below. The most recent district ward results are shown after them.
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Wealden | 100% |
East Sussex County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arlington, East Hoathly & Hellingly | Ref | Ref 38% Con 25% Grn 18% | 46.4% |
| Crowborough North & Jarvis Brook | Ref | Ref 38% LD 30% Con 24% | 51.6% |
| Crowborough South & St. Johns | Ref | Ref 36% Con 26% LD 24% | 55.1% |
| Forest Row & Groombridge | Grn | Grn 42% Con 26% Ref 25% | 54.3% |
| Hailsham Market | Ref | Ref 43% LD 33% Con 14% | 38.2% |
| Hailsham New Town | Ref | Ref 34% LD 23% Independent 22% | 40.2% |
| Heathfield & Mayfield | Ref | Ref 32% Con 28% Grn 27% | 51.0% |
| Wealden North East | Con | Con 35% Ref 25% Grn 16% | 51.2% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Jul 2025 | Horam & Punnetts Town | Grn HOLD | Grn 36% Ref 33% Con 20% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward. Where the council held a May 2026 election, those results are shown; otherwise we show the most recent available ward result (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024), or, where the seat was uncontested at the last election, the current sitting councillor from OpenCouncilData. The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Sussex Weald at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Sussex Weald at past general elections?
2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con hold | Charles Hendry Wealden MP | 9.6% | 56.6% | 25.3% | 17,179 | 71.8% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | Nusrat Ghani Wealden MP | 10.8% | 57.0% | 9.1% | 22,967 | 71.1%-0.7 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | Nusrat Ghani Wealden MP | 22.2% | 61.2% | 10.4% | 23,628 | 74.3%+3.2 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Nusrat Ghani Wealden MP, pre-review boundary | 14.9% | 63.7% | 16.8% | 23,164 | 70.5% |
| 2024 | Con hold | Nus Ghani | 16.8% | 34.1% | 20.2% | 6,842 | 67.5%-3.0 |
Sussex Weald was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Wealden (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Sussex Weald
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Sussex Weald. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied76.1 / 75.6vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+30.5 / 31.3vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3522.9 / 22.9vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied76.1 / 76.6vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent9.3 / 7.5vs 16.8
- ↓Under 3522.9 / 23.3vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied76.1 / 75.2vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+30.5 / 31.5vs 22.7
- ↓Social rent9.3 / 9.2vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied76.1 / 74.2vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+30.5 / 30.1vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3522.9 / 22.7vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied76.1 / 76.4vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent13.3 / 11.8vs 20.2
- ↓Social rent9.3 / 10.9vs 16.8
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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