Sussex Weald
South East · County constituency · Wealden borough
About the Sussex Weald constituency
Sussex Weald is a county constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Ms Nusrat Ghani (Conservative), first elected in May 2015. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 34.1% to 20.2% for the Liberal Democrats, a majority of 6,842 votes on a 67.5% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 31.1% and the Conservatives on 26.7%, a margin of 4.4 points - a projected change of hands from the Conservatives.
Who lives in Sussex Weald? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Sussex Weald vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Sussex Weald
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Sussex Weald within Wealden
Sussex Weald sits entirely within Wealden Council. Wealden was not itself in the 2026 election cycle, but the East Sussex County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Wealden | 100% |
East Sussex County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arlington, East Hoathly & Hellingly | Ref | Ref 38% Con 25% Grn 18% | 46.4% |
| Crowborough North & Jarvis Brook | Ref | Ref 38% LD 30% Con 24% | 51.6% |
| Crowborough South & St. Johns | Ref | Ref 36% Con 26% LD 24% | 55.1% |
| Forest Row & Groombridge | Grn | Grn 42% Con 26% Ref 25% | 54.3% |
| Hailsham Market | Ref | Ref 43% LD 33% Con 14% | 38.2% |
| Hailsham New Town | Ref | Ref 34% LD 23% Independent 22% | 40.2% |
| Heathfield & Mayfield | Ref | Ref 32% Con 28% Grn 27% | 51.0% |
| Wealden North East | Con | Con 35% Ref 25% Grn 16% | 51.2% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Jul 2025 | Horam & Punnetts Town | Grn HOLD | Grn 36% Ref 33% Con 20% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiddingly, East Hoathly & Waldron | Conservative 41.7%vs Reform 17.4% | 2023 Conservative 61.2%vs Labour 38.8% | - | 34.9% |
| Crowborough Central | Conservative 31.8%vs Reform 21.1% | 2023 Lib Dem 54.8%vs Conservative 39.0% | - | 34.7% |
| Crowborough Jarvis Brook | Conservative 26.1%vs Lib Dem 25.1% | 2023 Lib Dem 75.3%vs Conservative 24.6% | - | 28.6% |
| Crowborough North | Conservative 32.4%vs Lib Dem 22.5% | 2023 Lib Dem 54.4%vs Independent 23.8% | - | 39.9% |
| Crowborough South East | Conservative 29.8%vs Lib Dem 25.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 73.9%vs Conservative 26.1% | - | 31.7% |
| Crowborough South West | Conservative 34.2%vs Lib Dem 20.8% | 2023 Lib Dem 58.5%vs Conservative 41.5% | - | 31.3% |
| Crowborough St Johns | Conservative 38.3%vs Lib Dem 17.8% | 2023 Green 49.5%vs Conservative 43.4% | - | 42.3% |
| Framfield & Cross-in-Hand | Conservative 45.0%vs Lib Dem 17.7% | 2023 Conservative 57.5%vs Labour 42.5% | - | 37.4% |
| Frant & Wadhurst | Conservative 37.3%vs Lib Dem 19.0% | 2023 Conservative 42.9%vs Green 23.2% | - | 55.5% |
| Hadlow Down & Rotherfield | Conservative 37.4%vs Labour 18.7% | 2019 Conservative 61.5%vs Green 38.5% | - | 38.0% |
| Hailsham Central | Conservative 30.1%vs Lib Dem 22.0% | 2023 Lib Dem 66.1%vs Conservative 33.9% | - | 26.1% |
| Hailsham East | Conservative 25.4%vs Reform 21.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 71.1%vs Conservative 28.9% | - | 21.8% |
| Hailsham North | Conservative 29.6%vs Lib Dem 24.8% | 2023 Lib Dem 74.5%vs Conservative 25.4% | - | 30.4% |
| Hailsham North West | Conservative 32.5%vs Lib Dem 22.9% | 2023 Lib Dem 52.4%vs Conservative 47.6% | - | 29.2% |
| Hailsham South | Conservative 35.0%vs Lib Dem 20.5% | 2023 Lib Dem 47.0%vs Conservative 38.1% | - | 28.4% |
| Hailsham West | Conservative 30.2%vs Reform 21.7% | 2023 Conservative 37.0%vs Lib Dem 32.2% | - | 27.0% |
| Hartfield | Conservative 34.5%vs Labour 21.4% | 2023 Green 62.9%vs Conservative 37.1% | - | 43.2% |
| Heathfield North | Conservative 35.7%vs Reform 20.7% | 2023 Independent 48.1%vs Conservative 33.7% | - | 33.3% |
| Heathfield South | Conservative 34.3%vs Reform 19.8% | 2023 Independent 66.0%vs Conservative 34.0% | - | 36.1% |
| Hellingly | Conservative 29.7%vs Reform 22.4% | 2023 Independent 71.2%vs Conservative 28.9% | - | 25.3% |
| Horam & Punnetts Town | Conservative 35.3%vs Lib Dem 19.7% | 2023 Green 66.2%vs Conservative 33.8% | - | 44.2% |
| Mayfield & Five Ashes | Conservative 40.0%vs Lib Dem 19.0% | 2023 Conservative 55.4%vs Green 26.6% | - | 48.0% |
| Withyham | Conservative 31.8%vs Labour 24.1% | 2023 Green 72.3%vs Conservative 27.7% | - | 47.5% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Sussex Weald at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Sussex Weald at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con hold | Charles Hendry Wealden MP | 9.6% | 56.6% | 25.3% | 17,179 | 71.8% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | Nusrat Ghani Wealden MP | 10.8% | 57.0% | 9.1% | 22,967 | 71.1%-0.7 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | Nusrat Ghani Wealden MP | 22.2% | 61.2% | 10.4% | 23,628 | 74.3%+3.2 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Nusrat Ghani Wealden MP, pre-review boundary | 14.9% | 63.7% | 16.8% | 23,164 | 70.5% |
| 2024 | Con hold | Nus Ghani | 16.8% | 34.1% | 20.2% | 6,842 | 67.5%-3.0 |
Sussex Weald was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Wealden (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Sussex Weald
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Sussex Weald. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied76.1 / 75.6vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+30.5 / 31.3vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3522.9 / 22.9vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied76.1 / 76.6vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent9.3 / 7.5vs 16.8
- ↓Under 3522.9 / 23.3vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied76.1 / 75.2vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+30.5 / 31.5vs 22.7
- ↓Social rent9.3 / 9.2vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied76.1 / 74.2vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+30.5 / 30.1vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3522.9 / 22.7vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied76.1 / 76.4vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent13.3 / 11.8vs 20.2
- ↓Social rent9.3 / 10.9vs 16.8
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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