South West Devon
South West · County constituency
About the South West Devon constituency
South West Devon is a county constituency in the South West, spanning parts of Plymouth, South Hams and neighbouring councils. The sitting MP is Rebecca Smith (Conservative), first elected in July 2024.
At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won South West Devon with 34.3% of the vote, ahead of Labour on 30.2%, a majority of 2,112 votes. Turnout was 67.3%.
If a general election were held today, PollCheck's projection at the current seven-poll average has Reform UK on 30.4% and the Conservatives on 29.2% in South West Devon, a margin of 1.2 points, a projected change from the Conservatives since 2024. The projection updates automatically as new polls are added.
Demographically, South West Devon is a Leave-leaning area (an estimated 55.1% voted Leave in 2016). About 33.3% of residents hold a degree, 76.6% of homes are owner-occupied, and the seat has a median age of about 47 (2021 Census).
Across the most recent general elections on record here, the seat has been won by the Conservatives each time.
Who lives in South West Devon? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did South West Devon vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of South West Devon
Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.
South West Devon within Plymouth and South Hams and 1 other council
South West Devon crosses multiple council boundaries: Plymouth (60%), South Hams (32%), West Devon (8%). The figures below come from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026 in each constituent council where they were held; for councils not in the 2026 election cycle the most recent available ward result is shown instead.
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Plymouth | 60% | View projection › |
| South Hams | 32% | — |
| West Devon | 8% | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward. Where the council held a May 2026 election, those results are shown; otherwise we show the most recent available ward result (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024), or, where the seat was uncontested at the last election, the current sitting councillor from OpenCouncilData. The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for South West Devon at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won South West Devon at past general elections?
2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Gary Streeter | 12.4% | 56.0% | 24.1% | 15,874 | 70.4% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Gary Streeter | 16.7% | 56.6% | 7.5% | 20,109 | 70.9%+0.5 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Gary Streeter | 29.9% | 59.8% | 5.2% | 15,816 | 74.2%+3.3 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Gary Streeter 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 21.4% | 62.6% | 12.1% | 23,090 | 74.4%+0.2 |
| 2024 | Con hold | Rebecca Smith | 30.3% | 34.3% | 10.6% | 2,112 | 67.3%-7.1 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like South West Devon
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to South West Devon. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied76.6 / 76.1vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent7.5 / 9.3vs 16.8
- ↓Under 3523.3 / 22.9vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied76.6 / 75.2vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent7.5 / 9.2vs 16.8
- ↓Under 3523.3 / 22.2vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied76.6 / 75.6vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3523.3 / 22.9vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+29.7 / 31.3vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied76.6 / 78.6vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent7.5 / 7.8vs 16.8
- ↓Under 3523.3 / 23.7vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied76.6 / 76.4vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent7.5 / 10.9vs 16.8
- ↓Private rent14.5 / 11.8vs 20.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.