South West Devon
South West · County constituency
About the South West Devon constituency
South West Devon is a county constituency in the South West. The sitting MP is Rebecca Smith (Conservative), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 34.3% to 30.2% for Labour, a majority of 2,112 votes on a 67.3% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 31.1% and the Conservatives on 31.0%, a margin of 0.0 points - a projected change of hands from the Conservatives.
Who lives in South West Devon? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did South West Devon vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of South West Devon
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
South West Devon within Plymouth and South Hams and 1 other council
South West Devon crosses council boundaries: Plymouth (60%), South Hams (32%), West Devon (8%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Plymouth | 60% | View projection › |
| South Hams | 32% | — |
| West Devon | 8% | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bickleigh & Cornwood | Conservative 34.6%vs Labour 25.9% | 2023 Lib Dem 54.9%vs Conservative 45.1% | - | 35.0% |
| Buckland Monachorum | Conservative 35.3%vs Labour 27.0% | 2023 Independent 64.8%vs Conservative 19.4% | - | 53.1% |
| Burrator | Conservative 35.2%vs Labour 33.0% | 2023 Lib Dem 52.1%vs Conservative 28.3% | - | 33.8% |
| Ermington & Ugborough | Conservative 34.3%vs Labour 27.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 57.0%vs Conservative 31.8% | - | 40.5% |
| Ivybridge East | Labour 28.8%vs Conservative 28.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 51.8%vs Conservative 28.9% | - | 34.5% |
| Ivybridge West | Labour 32.8%vs Conservative 28.9% | 2023 Lib Dem 57.7%vs Conservative 25.3% | - | 34.0% |
| Newton & Yealmpton | Conservative 31.5%vs Lib Dem 22.4% | 2023 Lib Dem 76.0%vs Conservative 16.6% | - | 46.0% |
| Plympton Chaddlewood | Conservative 32.8%vs Labour 26.5% | May 2026 Reform 40.6%vs Green 35.1% | Conservative→Reform +21.1pp | 39.7% |
| Plympton Erle | Conservative 34.3%vs Labour 31.4% | 2024 Independent 38.9%vs Labour 20.9% | - | 33.0% |
| Plympton St Mary | Conservative 39.0%vs Labour 28.0% | May 2026 Reform 32.8%vs Conservative 31.3% | Conservative→Reform +10.8pp | 43.6% |
| Plymstock Dunstone | Labour 35.8%vs Conservative 33.9% | May 2026 Reform 36.9%vs Conservative 25.4% | Labour→Reform +19.1pp | 47.1% |
| Plymstock Radford | Conservative 35.4%vs Labour 34.1% | May 2026 Conservative 34.6%vs Reform 32.8% | Conservative share -0.8pp | 45.5% |
| Wembury & Brixton | Conservative 36.5%vs Labour 27.6% | 2023 Conservative 47.0%vs Labour 40.1% | - | 39.2% |
| Woolwell | Conservative 35.4%vs Labour 25.4% | 2023 Conservative 70.3%vs Lib Dem 29.7% | - | 33.4% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for South West Devon at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won South West Devon at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Gary Streeter | 12.4% | 56.0% | 24.1% | 15,874 | 70.4% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Gary Streeter | 16.7% | 56.6% | 7.5% | 20,109 | 70.9%+0.5 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Gary Streeter | 29.9% | 59.8% | 5.2% | 15,816 | 74.2%+3.3 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Gary Streeter 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 21.4% | 62.6% | 12.1% | 23,090 | 74.4%+0.2 |
| 2024 | Con hold | Rebecca Smith | 30.3% | 34.3% | 10.6% | 2,112 | 67.3%-7.1 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like South West Devon
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to South West Devon. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied76.6 / 76.1vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent7.5 / 9.3vs 16.8
- ↓Under 3523.3 / 22.9vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied76.6 / 75.2vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent7.5 / 9.2vs 16.8
- ↓Under 3523.3 / 22.2vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied76.6 / 75.6vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3523.3 / 22.9vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+29.7 / 31.3vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied76.6 / 78.6vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent7.5 / 7.8vs 16.8
- ↓Under 3523.3 / 23.7vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied76.6 / 76.4vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent7.5 / 10.9vs 16.8
- ↓Private rent14.5 / 11.8vs 20.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.