Mid Dorset and North Poole
South West · County constituency
About the Mid Dorset and North Poole constituency
Mid Dorset and North Poole is a county constituency in the South West. The sitting MP is Vikki Slade (Liberal Democrat), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats won with 43.3% to 40.6% for the Conservatives, a majority of 1,352 votes on a 65.8% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 34.7% and the Liberal Democrats on 32.9%, a margin of 1.8 points - a projected change of hands from the Liberal Democrats.
Who lives in Mid Dorset and North Poole? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Mid Dorset and North Poole vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Mid Dorset and North Poole
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Mid Dorset and North Poole within Dorset and Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole
Mid Dorset and North Poole crosses council boundaries: Dorset (57%), Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole (43%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Dorset | 57% |
| Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole | 43% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bearwood & Merley | Lib Dem 47.4%vs Conservative 37.2% | 2023 Lib Dem 71.9%vs Conservative 20.7% | - | 36.1% |
| Broadstone | Lib Dem 51.5%vs Conservative 30.9% | 2023 Lib Dem 68.8%vs Conservative 25.7% | - | 44.7% |
| Canford Heath | Conservative 43.7%vs Lib Dem 40.7% | 2023 Lib Dem 62.4%vs Conservative 30.1% | - | 34.6% |
| Colehill & Wimborne Minster East | Conservative 44.7%vs Lib Dem 40.9% | 2024 Lib Dem 49.5%vs Conservative 34.5% | - | 41.5% |
| Corfe Mullen | Conservative 42.6%vs Lib Dem 41.2% | 2024 Lib Dem 55.9%vs Conservative 28.9% | - | 31.7% |
| Lytchett Matravers & Upton | Conservative 43.6%vs Lib Dem 40.1% | 2024 Lib Dem 53.7%vs Conservative 41.2% | - | 27.6% |
| Stour & Allen Vale | Conservative 49.8%vs Lib Dem 35.8% | 2024 Lib Dem 53.0%vs Conservative 38.3% | - | 33.9% |
| Wareham | Lib Dem 44.3%vs Conservative 40.0% | 2024 Lib Dem 69.0%vs Conservative 24.0% | - | 36.7% |
| West Purbeck | Conservative 37.9%vs Lib Dem 21.4% | 2024 Lib Dem 48.9%vs Conservative 40.5% | - | 30.5% |
| Wimborne Minster | Lib Dem 44.5%vs Conservative 35.8% | 2024 Lib Dem 64.5%vs Conservative 27.3% | - | 30.7% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Mid Dorset and North Poole at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Mid Dorset and North Poole at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | LD hold | Annette Brooke | 5.9% | 44.5% | 45.1% | 269 | 72.4% |
| 2015 | Con gain from LD | Michael Tomlinson | 6.0% | 50.8% | 28.2% | 10,530 | 72.3%-0.1 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Michael Tomlinson | 13.3% | 59.2% | 27.5% | 15,339 | 74.2%+1.9 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Michael Tomlinson 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 7.3% | 60.0% | 29.9% | 16,570 | 73.9%-0.3 |
| 2024 | LD gain from Con | Vikki Slade | 9.2% | 40.6% | 43.3% | 1,352 | 65.8%-8.1 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Mid Dorset and North Poole
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Mid Dorset and North Poole. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied75.6 / 76.1vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+31.3 / 30.5vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3522.9 / 22.9vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied75.6 / 74.2vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3522.9 / 22.7vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+31.3 / 30.1vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied75.6 / 74.1vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+31.3 / 30.4vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3522.9 / 22.9vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied75.6 / 73.9vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+31.3 / 31.6vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3522.9 / 22.1vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied75.6 / 76.6vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3522.9 / 23.3vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+31.3 / 29.7vs 22.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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