Constituency profile

Beverley and Holderness

Yorkshire and The Humber · County constituency · East Riding of Yorkshire borough

Graham Stuart MP
Sitting MP

Graham Stuart

Conservative

First elected May 2005

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
Yorkshire and The Humber
County constituency, East Riding of Yorkshire council
Last 5 GE winners
CCCCC
Conservative 5/5
EU referendum 2016
58.7% Leave
UK average 51.9%; +6.8pp above mean
Current outlook
Conservative +6.3pp
vs Reform UK 27.5%
NorthernLeave-leaning

About the Beverley and Holderness constituency

Beverley and Holderness is a county constituency in Yorkshire and The Humber. The sitting MP is Graham Stuart (Conservative), first elected in May 2005. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 34.5% to 34.2% for Labour, a majority of 124 votes on a 62.4% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 33.8% and Reform UK on 27.5%, a margin of 6.3 points.

Who lives in Beverley and Holderness? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
58.7%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
31.4%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
17.2%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
73.9%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
25.5%
UK average ~36%
Median age
50.4
UK median ~40
Age 65+
31.6%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
22.1%
UK average ~28%

How did Beverley and Holderness vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Con hold · majority 124 votes (0.3pp) · turnout 62.4%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Beverley and Holderness

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Beverley and Holderness within East Riding of Yorkshire

Beverley and Holderness sits entirely within East Riding of Yorkshire Council. East Riding of Yorkshire was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
East Riding of Yorkshire
56 LSOAs
100%

Recent council by-elections

Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.

DateWardResultTop 3 vote shares
19 Jul 2024South East Holderness
East Riding of Yorkshire
Ref GAIN from ConRef 35% Con 30% Lab 27%
1 Mar 2024Minster and Woodmansey
East Riding of Yorkshire
LD HOLDLD 51% Con 25% Lab 17%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
Beverley RuralConservative 39.5%vs Labour 29.4%2023 Lib Dem 56.4%vs Conservative 31.4%-25.9%
Mid HoldernessConservative 37.2%vs Labour 31.8%2023 Conservative 46.6%vs Lib Dem 36.9%-28.9%
Minster and WoodmanseyLabour 40.0%vs Conservative 28.8%2023 Lib Dem 43.1%vs Conservative 28.1%-30.8%
South East HoldernessConservative 38.6%vs Labour 32.5%2023 Conservative 48.1%vs Labour 21.4%-29.3%
South West HoldernessLabour 37.9%vs Conservative 31.9%2023 Conservative 45.0%vs Labour 42.4%-24.4%
St Mary'sLabour 33.7%vs Conservative 31.9%2023 Lib Dem 61.6%vs Conservative 26.8%-39.0%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Beverley and Holderness at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Beverley and Holderness at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010Con holdGraham Stuart21.1%47.1%22.7%3.5% UKIP1.3%4.3%12,98767.1%
2015Con holdGraham Stuart25.0%48.1%5.5%16.7% UKIP3.4%1.2%12,20365.2%-1.9
2017Con holdGraham Stuart33.2%58.4%5.0%-1.3%2.1%14,04269.0%+3.8
2019notionalConservative winnerGraham Stuart 2019 MP, pre-review boundary24.7%61.0%9.3%-2.5%2.5%17,97669.6%+0.6
2024Con holdGraham Stuart34.2%34.5%7.5%18.3% Ref3.7%1.8%12462.4%-7.2

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Beverley and Holderness

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Beverley and Holderness. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.