North Dorset
South West · County constituency · Dorset borough
About the North Dorset constituency
North Dorset is a county constituency in the South West. The sitting MP is Simon Hoare (Conservative), first elected in May 2015. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 36.6% to 33.5% for the Liberal Democrats, a majority of 1,589 votes on a 68.3% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 34.6% and Reform UK on 29.9%, a margin of 4.6 points.
Who lives in North Dorset? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did North Dorset vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of North Dorset
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
North Dorset within Dorset
North Dorset sits entirely within Dorset Council. Dorset was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Dorset | 100% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beacon | Conservative 39.5%vs Lib Dem 31.4% | 2024 Conservative 61.4%vs Lib Dem 21.0% | - | 38.2% |
| Blackmore Vale | Conservative 40.2%vs Lib Dem 30.1% | 2024 Conservative 50.3%vs Lib Dem 37.0% | - | 34.7% |
| Blandford | Conservative 33.5%vs Lib Dem 31.4% | 2024 Conservative 54.9%vs Lib Dem 27.3% | - | 32.0% |
| Cranborne & Alderholt | Lib Dem 41.0%vs Conservative 30.8% | 2024 Lib Dem 53.7%vs Conservative 40.2% | - | 31.9% |
| Cranborne Chase | Conservative 40.0%vs Lib Dem 27.9% | 2024 Conservative 65.4%vs Lib Dem 20.0% | - | 29.6% |
| Gillingham | Lib Dem 34.8%vs Conservative 34.3% | 2024 Conservative 45.3%vs Lib Dem 43.8% | - | 33.8% |
| Hill Forts & Upper Tarrants | Conservative 37.7%vs Lib Dem 29.9% | 2024 Conservative 55.4%vs Lib Dem 19.6% | - | 36.0% |
| Puddletown & Lower Winterborne | Conservative 34.1%vs Lib Dem 32.6% | 2024 Conservative 46.3%vs Lib Dem 35.0% | - | 30.2% |
| Shaftesbury Town | Lib Dem 44.3%vs Conservative 28.1% | 2024 Lib Dem 54.9%vs Conservative 18.8% | - | 41.1% |
| Stalbridge & Marnhull | Conservative 36.8%vs Lib Dem 34.5% | 2024 Conservative 51.0%vs Lib Dem 40.1% | - | 34.0% |
| Sturminster Newton | Conservative 37.8%vs Lib Dem 33.0% | 2024 Conservative 66.9%vs Lib Dem 25.1% | - | 30.5% |
| Verwood | Conservative 45.8%vs Lib Dem 27.9% | 2024 Conservative 66.6%vs Lib Dem 25.1% | - | 33.0% |
| Winterborne North | Lib Dem 37.9%vs Conservative 35.2% | 2024 Lib Dem 54.6%vs Conservative 36.6% | - | 32.1% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for North Dorset at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won North Dorset at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Robert Walter | 5.4% | 51.1% | 37.0% | 7,625 | 73.4% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Simon Hoare | 9.0% | 56.6% | 11.7% | 21,118 | 72.4%-1.0 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Simon Hoare | 18.6% | 64.9% | 13.6% | 25,777 | 73.0%+0.6 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Simon Hoare 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 11.9% | 63.8% | 20.4% | 23,195 | 74.1%+1.1 |
| 2024 | Con hold | Simon Hoare | 8.8% | 36.6% | 33.5% | 1,589 | 68.3%-5.8 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like North Dorset
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to North Dorset. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Age 65+32.1 / 31.1vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied71.0 / 69.3vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3522.6 / 23.9vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+32.1 / 31.5vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied71.0 / 70.5vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3522.6 / 22.9vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied71.0 / 71.0vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+32.1 / 31.3vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3522.6 / 22.7vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+32.1 / 32.9vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied71.0 / 70.0vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3522.6 / 20.8vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied71.0 / 72.5vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+32.1 / 30.2vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3522.6 / 23.3vs 30.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.