Newton Abbot
South West · County constituency · Teignbridge borough
About the Newton Abbot constituency
Newton Abbot is a county constituency in the South West. The sitting MP is Martin Wrigley (Liberal Democrat), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats won with 31.7% to 27.0% for the Conservatives, a majority of 2,246 votes on a 65.0% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 33.5% and the Conservatives on 23.1%, a margin of 10.4 points - a projected change of hands from the Liberal Democrats.
Who lives in Newton Abbot? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Newton Abbot vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Newton Abbot
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Newton Abbot within Teignbridge
Newton Abbot sits entirely within Teignbridge Council. Teignbridge was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Teignbridge | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jun 2026 | Dawlish South West | LD HOLD | LD 45% Ref 30% Grn 15% |
| 1 May 2025 | Teignmouth West | Ref GAIN from Ind | Ref 35% LD 33% Con 12% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ambrook | Lib Dem 31.5%vs Conservative 25.1% | 2023 Others 66.6%vs Lib Dem 33.4% | - | 38.2% |
| Bishopsteignton | Conservative 34.0%vs Lib Dem 29.1% | 2023 Independent 66.0%vs Conservative 34.0% | - | 39.1% |
| Bradley | Lib Dem 27.9%vs Conservative 27.8% | 2023 Conservative 29.8%vs Lib Dem 26.9% | - | 28.0% |
| Buckland & Milber | Lib Dem 36.3%vs Conservative 23.1% | 2023 Others 47.5%vs Lib Dem 36.1% | - | 35.3% |
| Bushell | Lib Dem 32.8%vs Reform 21.1% | 2023 Lib Dem 41.7%vs Others 32.8% | - | 28.1% |
| College | Lib Dem 30.6%vs Conservative 23.7% | 2023 Others 63.7%vs Conservative 14.9% | - | 40.9% |
| Dawlish North East | Lib Dem 34.5%vs Conservative 25.5% | 2023 Lib Dem 63.6%vs Independent 20.7% | - | 43.6% |
| Dawlish South West | Lib Dem 30.4%vs Conservative 28.2% | 2023 Lib Dem 44.8%vs Independent 32.3% | - | 40.5% |
| Ipplepen | Lib Dem 37.6%vs Conservative 26.3% | 2023 Lib Dem 39.4%vs Conservative 34.7% | - | 45.3% |
| Kenton & Starcross | Lib Dem 44.6%vs Conservative 21.1% | 2023 Lib Dem 70.4%vs Green 19.2% | - | 38.5% |
| Kerswell-with-Combe | Lib Dem 30.1%vs Conservative 27.4% | 2023 Others 61.3%vs Lib Dem 26.9% | - | 35.9% |
| Kingsteignton East | Conservative 29.7%vs Lib Dem 25.4% | 2023 Conservative 28.5%vs Others 26.7% | - | 32.7% |
| Kingsteignton West | Conservative 29.9%vs Lib Dem 28.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 47.0%vs Conservative 41.8% | - | 25.5% |
| Shaldon & Stokeinteignhead | Conservative 35.0%vs Lib Dem 26.4% | 2023 Independent 70.4%vs Lib Dem 16.6% | - | 48.6% |
| Teignmouth Central | Lib Dem 31.8%vs Conservative 28.3% | 2023 Lib Dem 39.9%vs Labour 18.3% | - | 47.1% |
| Teignmouth East | Conservative 34.2%vs Lib Dem 29.1% | 2023 Lib Dem 35.5%vs Conservative 27.6% | - | 46.0% |
| Teignmouth West | Lib Dem 33.7%vs Conservative 24.9% | 2023 Lib Dem 38.5%vs Labour 26.5% | - | 29.4% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Newton Abbot at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Newton Abbot at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con gain from LD | Anne Morris | 7.0% | 43.0% | 41.9% | 523 | 69.7% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Anne Marie Morris | 9.8% | 47.2% | 24.0% | 11,234 | 69.0%-0.7 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Anne Marie Morris | 22.2% | 55.5% | 20.5% | 17,160 | 72.0%+3.0 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Anne Marie Morris 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 17.7% | 55.6% | 22.2% | 17,456 | 71.8%-0.2 |
| 2024 | LD gain from Con | Martin Wrigley | 14.8% | 27.0% | 31.7% | 2,246 | 65.0%-6.8 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Newton Abbot
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Newton Abbot. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Age 65+31.5 / 32.1vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied70.5 / 71.0vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3522.9 / 22.6vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+31.5 / 32.9vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied70.5 / 70.0vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3522.9 / 20.8vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+31.5 / 31.6vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied70.5 / 72.8vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3522.9 / 22.9vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+31.5 / 31.1vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied70.5 / 69.3vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3522.9 / 23.9vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+31.5 / 31.6vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied70.5 / 73.9vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3522.9 / 22.1vs 30.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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