Weald of Kent
South East · County constituency
About the Weald of Kent constituency
Weald of Kent is a county constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Katie Lam (Conservative), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 39.8% to 23.2% for Labour, a majority of 8,422 votes on a 66.7% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 37.8% and the Conservatives on 29.9%, a margin of 7.9 points - a projected change of hands from the Conservatives.
Who lives in Weald of Kent? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Weald of Kent vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Weald of Kent
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Weald of Kent within Ashford and Maidstone and 1 other council
Weald of Kent crosses council boundaries: Ashford (50%), Maidstone (39%), Tunbridge Wells (11%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Ashford | 50% | — |
| Maidstone | 39% | — |
| Tunbridge Wells | 11% | View projection › |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Sep 2025 | Rolvenden & Tenterden West | Grn HOLD | Grn 36% Ref 32% Con 28% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biddenden | Conservative 39.9%vs Labour 24.4% | 2023 Conservative 65.8%vs Green 20.9% | - | 34.5% |
| Boughton Monchelsea & Chart Sutton | Conservative 39.3%vs Reform 22.9% | 2024 Independent 63.1%vs Conservative 22.8% | - | - |
| Charing | Conservative 37.7%vs Labour 24.2% | 2023 Conservative 66.3%vs Labour 33.7% | - | 33.0% |
| Cranbrook, Sissinghurst & Frittenden | Conservative 40.9%vs Labour 26.8% | May 2026 Conservative 46.2%vs Reform 25.4% | Conservative share +5.4pp | - |
| Downs North | Conservative 40.0%vs Labour 20.1% | 2023 Green 40.5%vs Conservative 28.7% | - | 42.3% |
| Downs West | Conservative 40.6%vs Labour 24.5% | 2023 Conservative 54.0%vs Green 25.3% | - | 34.1% |
| Hawkhurst, Sandhurst & Benenden | Lib Dem 37.0%vs Conservative 36.2% | May 2026 Others 31.7%vs Conservative 30.0% | Lib Dem→Others +28.1pp | - |
| Headcorn & Sutton Valence | Conservative 44.7%vs Reform 20.5% | 2024 Conservative 48.2%vs Green 39.7% | - | - |
| Isle of Oxney | Conservative 42.7%vs Reform 21.8% | 2023 Conservative 47.3%vs Others 34.2% | - | 41.9% |
| Kingsnorth Village & Bridgefield | Conservative 31.6%vs Labour 28.4% | 2023 Others 46.8%vs Conservative 29.2% | - | 27.8% |
| Leeds & Langley | Conservative 39.4%vs Labour 26.2% | 2024 Conservative 53.4%vs Green 22.6% | - | - |
| Loose & Linton | Conservative 34.7%vs Reform 22.3% | 2024 Lib Dem 59.9%vs Conservative 20.1% | - | - |
| Marden & Yalding | Conservative 42.4%vs Labour 21.8% | 2024 Conservative 44.1%vs Green 42.1% | - | - |
| Rolvenden & Tenterden West | Conservative 35.0%vs Labour 23.6% | 2023 Green 53.4%vs Conservative 38.1% | - | 42.0% |
| Saxon Shore | Conservative 36.2%vs Labour 24.0% | 2023 Others 72.2%vs Conservative 19.2% | - | 39.3% |
| Staplehurst | Conservative 41.5%vs Labour 27.3% | 2024 Conservative 51.3%vs Labour 32.9% | - | - |
| Tenterden North | Conservative 39.3%vs Labour 26.2% | 2023 Conservative 51.5%vs Labour 25.1% | - | 40.4% |
| Tenterden South | Conservative 36.4%vs Reform 22.9% | 2023 Conservative 46.1%vs Independent 33.6% | - | 35.4% |
| Tenterden St Michael's | Conservative 38.5%vs Reform 20.4% | 2023 Conservative 47.8%vs Lib Dem 37.9% | - | 34.1% |
| Upper Weald | Conservative 39.5%vs Labour 21.5% | 2023 Conservative 57.6%vs Lib Dem 25.4% | - | 33.2% |
| Weald Central | Conservative 43.5%vs Labour 21.9% | 2023 Conservative 51.6%vs Green 25.7% | - | 31.5% |
| Weald North | Conservative 42.1%vs Labour 24.7% | 2023 Conservative 50.2%vs Others 26.8% | - | 44.4% |
| Weald South | Conservative 36.5%vs Labour 24.6% | 2023 Others 40.0%vs Conservative 38.0% | - | 37.2% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Weald of Kent at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Weald of Kent at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con hold | Damian Green Ashford MP | 16.7% | 54.1% | 22.8% | 17,297 | 67.9% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | Damian Green Ashford MP | 18.4% | 52.5% | 6.0% | 19,296 | 67.4%-0.5 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | Damian Green Ashford MP | 29.8% | 59.0% | 5.2% | 17,478 | 68.5%+1.1 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Damian Green Ashford MP, pre-review boundary | 14.1% | 72.0% | 10.1% | 28,751 | 70.8% |
| 2024 | Con hold | Katie Lam | 23.2% | 39.8% | 7.8% | 8,422 | 66.7%-4.1 |
Weald of Kent was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Ashford (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Weald of Kent
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Weald of Kent. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied74.2 / 74.1vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+30.1 / 30.4vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3522.7 / 22.9vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied74.2 / 73.6vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent12.9 / 12.6vs 20.2
- ↓Under 3522.7 / 24.1vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied74.2 / 75.6vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3522.7 / 22.9vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+30.1 / 31.3vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied74.2 / 75.4vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3522.7 / 23.0vs 30.2
- ↓Private rent12.9 / 11.0vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied74.2 / 74.5vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent12.9 / 11.7vs 20.2
- ↑Leave59.0 / 60.1vs 53.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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