Lichfield
West Midlands · County constituency
About the Lichfield constituency
Lichfield is a county constituency in the West Midlands. The sitting MP is Dave Robertson (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 35.1% to 33.4% for the Conservatives, a majority of 810 votes on a 64.5% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 32.8% and Reform UK on 27.5%, a margin of 5.3 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Lichfield? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Lichfield vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Lichfield
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Lichfield within Lichfield and East Staffordshire
Lichfield crosses council boundaries: Lichfield (86%), East Staffordshire (14%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Lichfield | 86% |
| East Staffordshire | 14% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Dec 2025 | Armitage with Handsacre | Con HOLD | — |
| 24 Jul 2025 | Alrewas & Fradley | Con HOLD | Con 42% Ref 27% Lab 19% |
| 1 May 2025 | Curborough | Ref GAIN from Lab | Ref 38% Con 23% Lab 22% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alrewas & Fradley | Conservative 34.7%vs Labour 33.5% | 2023 Conservative 50.4%vs Labour 41.8% | - | 31.7% |
| Armitage with Handsacre | Conservative 34.7%vs Labour 31.8% | 2023 Conservative 57.1%vs Labour 37.3% | - | 25.9% |
| Bagots & Needwood | Conservative 46.1%vs Labour 29.1% | 2023 Conservative 61.4%vs Labour 21.9% | - | 36.2% |
| Boley Park | Conservative 36.0%vs Labour 33.2% | 2023 Conservative 49.2%vs Labour 35.0% | - | 48.6% |
| Boney Hay & Central | Labour 38.7%vs Conservative 27.1% | 2023 Labour 61.9%vs Conservative 38.1% | - | 23.9% |
| Chadsmead | Labour 35.9%vs Conservative 28.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 51.3%vs Conservative 28.6% | - | 38.9% |
| Chase Terrace | Labour 41.4%vs Conservative 25.3% | 2023 Labour 75.1%vs Conservative 24.9% | - | 21.1% |
| Chasetown | Labour 40.3%vs Conservative 24.3% | 2023 Labour 73.8%vs Conservative 26.2% | - | 20.1% |
| Colton & the Ridwares | Conservative 37.6%vs Labour 30.6% | 2023 Conservative 52.6%vs Labour 26.7% | - | 33.0% |
| Curborough | Labour 43.1%vs Conservative 24.6% | 2023 Labour 65.5%vs Conservative 34.5% | - | 24.4% |
| Hammerwich with Wall | Conservative 33.6%vs Labour 33.6% | 2023 Conservative 54.9%vs Labour 45.1% | - | 28.1% |
| Highfield | Labour 34.1%vs Conservative 32.8% | 2023 Conservative 59.3%vs Labour 40.7% | - | 28.1% |
| Leomansley | Labour 36.1%vs Conservative 31.5% | 2023 Conservative 38.2%vs Lib Dem 25.7% | - | 51.7% |
| Longdon | Conservative 38.7%vs Labour 28.9% | 2023 Conservative 70.5%vs Labour 29.5% | - | 32.5% |
| St John's | Labour 39.6%vs Conservative 30.8% | 2023 Conservative 37.8%vs Labour 33.2% | - | 57.0% |
| Stowe | Labour 36.2%vs Conservative 32.6% | 2023 Conservative 36.0%vs Labour 33.6% | - | 41.8% |
| Summerfield & All Saints | Labour 35.8%vs Conservative 31.6% | 2023 Labour 53.2%vs Conservative 40.7% | - | 25.7% |
| Whittington & Streethay | Labour 35.8%vs Conservative 30.5% | 2023 Conservative 44.9%vs Labour 40.0% | - | 40.2% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Lichfield at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Lichfield at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Michael Fabricant | 19.8% | 54.4% | 20.1% | 17,683 | 71.0% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Michael Fabricant | 19.8% | 55.2% | 5.2% | 18,189 | 69.3%-1.7 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Michael Fabricant | 28.8% | 63.6% | 5.0% | 18,581 | 71.9%+2.6 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Michael Fabricant 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 21.0% | 64.1% | 10.5% | 22,609 | 71.0%-0.9 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Dave Robertson | 35.1% | 33.4% | 7.3% | 810 | 64.5%-6.5 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Lichfield
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Lichfield. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied73.6 / 74.2vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent12.6 / 12.9vs 20.2
- ↓Under 3524.1 / 22.7vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied73.6 / 76.4vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent12.6 / 11.8vs 20.2
- ↓Under 3524.1 / 25.0vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied73.6 / 72.4vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent12.6 / 14.1vs 20.2
- ↓Under 3524.1 / 25.1vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied73.6 / 70.9vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3524.1 / 24.3vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+28.7 / 28.2vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied73.6 / 74.4vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent12.6 / 11.8vs 20.2
- ↑Age 65+28.7 / 28.0vs 22.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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