Ossett and Denby Dale
Yorkshire and The Humber · County constituency
About the Ossett and Denby Dale constituency
Ossett and Denby Dale is a county constituency in Yorkshire and The Humber. The sitting MP is Jade Botterill (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 39.3% to 28.9% for the Conservatives, a majority of 4,542 votes on a 60.7% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 29.7% and the Conservatives on 28.4%, a margin of 1.3 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Ossett and Denby Dale? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Ossett and Denby Dale vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Ossett and Denby Dale
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Ossett and Denby Dale within Wakefield and Kirklees
Ossett and Denby Dale crosses council boundaries: Wakefield (70%), Kirklees (30%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Wakefield | 70% | View projection › |
| Kirklees | 30% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denby Dale | Labour 41.0%vs Conservative 31.8% | May 2026 Conservative 35.7%vs Reform 27.2% | Labour→Conservative +12.1pp | - |
| Horbury and South Ossett | Labour 44.1%vs Conservative 25.5% | May 2026 Reform 41.2%vs Labour 32.2% | Labour→Reform +16.0pp | - |
| Kirkburton | Conservative 30.2%vs Labour 25.9% | May 2026 Conservative 38.5%vs Reform 30.4% | Conservative share +8.3pp | - |
| Ossett | Labour 41.5%vs Conservative 26.5% | May 2026 Reform 45.8%vs Labour 25.7% | Labour→Reform +20.1pp | - |
| Wakefield Rural | Labour 37.7%vs Conservative 28.0% | May 2026 Reform 43.8%vs Conservative 18.5% | Labour→Reform +21.1pp | - |
| Wakefield South | Labour 38.5%vs Conservative 27.5% | May 2026 Reform 33.0%vs Conservative 25.1% | Labour→Reform +14.4pp | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Ossett and Denby Dale at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Ossett and Denby Dale at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con gain from Lab | Simon Reevell Dewsbury MP | 32.2% | 35.0% | 16.9% | 1,526 | 68.4% |
| 2015predecessor | Lab gain from Con | Paula Sherriff Dewsbury MP | 41.8% | 39.1% | 3.6% | 1,451 | 67.2%-1.2 |
| 2017predecessor | Lab hold | Paula Sherriff Dewsbury MP | 51.0% | 45.1% | 2.1% | 3,321 | 69.5%+2.3 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Mark Eastwood Dewsbury MP, pre-review boundary | 31.2% | 53.9% | 4.9% | 11,027 | 67.9% |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Jade Botterill | 39.3% | 28.9% | 4.1% | 4,542 | 60.7%-7.2 |
Ossett and Denby Dale was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Dewsbury (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Ossett and Denby Dale
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Ossett and Denby Dale. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied72.4 / 74.5vs 61.9
- ↑Leave59.5 / 60.1vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent14.1 / 11.7vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied72.4 / 73.6vs 61.9
- ↑Leave59.5 / 60.8vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent14.1 / 14.9vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied72.4 / 73.6vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent14.1 / 12.6vs 20.2
- ↓Under 3525.1 / 24.1vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied72.4 / 73.0vs 61.9
- ↑Leave59.5 / 61.6vs 53.2
- ↓Under 3525.1 / 25.3vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied72.4 / 74.6vs 61.9
- ↑Leave59.5 / 61.7vs 53.2
- ↓Under 3525.1 / 24.2vs 30.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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