Constituency profile

Goole and Pocklington

Yorkshire and The Humber · County constituency · East Riding of Yorkshire borough

David Davis MP
Sitting MP

David Davis

Conservative

First elected July 2008

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
Yorkshire and The Humber
County constituency, East Riding of Yorkshire council
Last 5 GE winners
CCCCC
Conservative 5/5
EU referendum 2016
61.7% Leave
UK average 51.9%; +9.8pp above mean
Current outlook
Conservative +8.5pp
vs Reform UK 28.1%
NorthernStrong Leave area

About the Goole and Pocklington constituency

Goole and Pocklington is a county constituency in Yorkshire and The Humber. The sitting MP is David Davis (Conservative), first elected in July 2008. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 38.2% to 31.0% for Labour, a majority of 3,572 votes on a 62.2% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 36.6% and Reform UK on 28.1%, a margin of 8.5 points.

Who lives in Goole and Pocklington? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
61.7%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
32.4%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
16.9%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
74.6%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
24.9%
UK average ~36%
Median age
46.7
UK median ~40
Age 65+
27.4%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
24.2%
UK average ~28%

How did Goole and Pocklington vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Con hold · majority 3,572 votes (7.2pp) · turnout 62.2%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Goole and Pocklington

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Goole and Pocklington within East Riding of Yorkshire

Goole and Pocklington sits entirely within East Riding of Yorkshire Council. East Riding of Yorkshire was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
East Riding of Yorkshire
61 LSOAs
100%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
DaleConservative 39.2%vs Labour 28.2%2023 Conservative 41.6%vs Independent 35.3%-41.1%
Goole NorthLabour 34.8%vs Conservative 31.1%2023 Conservative 54.8%vs Labour 27.2%-19.8%
Goole SouthLabour 35.3%vs Conservative 27.7%2023 Independent 62.5%vs Labour 33.4%-14.2%
HowdenConservative 36.9%vs Labour 27.6%2023 Independent 61.0%vs Lib Dem 16.0%-32.9%
HowdenshireConservative 40.9%vs Labour 29.2%2023 Conservative 56.2%vs Labour 28.0%-26.8%
Pocklington ProvincialConservative 37.2%vs Labour 36.0%2023 Lib Dem 40.6%vs Labour 24.0%-39.2%
Snaith, Airmyn, Rawcliffe and MarshlandConservative 38.0%vs Labour 30.5%2023 Conservative 61.5%vs Labour 14.3%-31.2%
South HunsleyConservative 45.7%vs Labour 24.6%2023 Lib Dem 44.6%vs Conservative 39.5%-37.9%
Wolds WeightonConservative 42.5%vs Labour 28.1%2023 Conservative 43.9%vs Labour 13.8%-46.5%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Goole and Pocklington at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Goole and Pocklington at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010predecessorCon holdDavid Davis Haltemprice and Howden MP15.7%50.2%26.4%-1.4%6.3%11,60269.4%
2015predecessorCon holdDavid Davis Haltemprice and Howden MP21.0%54.2%6.3%13.9% UKIP3.7%1.0%16,19568.5%-0.9
2017predecessorCon holdDavid Davis Haltemprice and Howden MP31.0%61.0%4.8%-1.4%1.8%15,40571.9%+3.4
2019notionalConservative winnerDavid Davis Haltemprice and Howden MP, pre-review boundary20.4%65.1%7.8%-3.9%2.8%22,30265.4%
2024Con holdDavid Davis31.0%38.2%6.8%18.2% Ref4.9%0.9%3,57262.2%-3.2

Goole and Pocklington was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Haltemprice and Howden (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Goole and Pocklington

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Goole and Pocklington. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.