Thornbury and Yate
South West · County constituency · South Gloucestershire borough
About the Thornbury and Yate constituency
Thornbury and Yate is a county constituency in the South West. The sitting MP is Claire Young (Liberal Democrat), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats won with 39.0% to 33.4% for the Conservatives, a majority of 3,014 votes on a 68.3% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 30.4% and the Conservatives on 26.9%, a margin of 3.6 points - a projected change of hands from the Liberal Democrats.
Who lives in Thornbury and Yate? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Thornbury and Yate vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Thornbury and Yate
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Thornbury and Yate within South Gloucestershire
Thornbury and Yate sits entirely within South Gloucestershire Council. South Gloucestershire was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| South Gloucestershire | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Nov 2024 | Frampton Cotterell | LD HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boyd Valley | Conservative 39.9%vs Lib Dem 35.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 48.5%vs Conservative 48.5% | - | 38.9% |
| Charfield | Lib Dem 45.2%vs Conservative 29.0% | 2023 Lib Dem 70.7%vs Conservative 22.6% | - | 35.9% |
| Chipping Sodbury & Cotswold Edge | Lib Dem 37.8%vs Conservative 37.6% | 2023 Conservative 47.8%vs Lib Dem 47.4% | - | 47.1% |
| Dodington | Lib Dem 38.9%vs Conservative 27.4% | 2023 Lib Dem 69.8%vs Conservative 24.8% | - | 29.3% |
| Frampton Cotterell | Lib Dem 40.6%vs Conservative 34.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 54.8%vs Conservative 37.7% | - | 48.1% |
| Pilning & Severn Beach | Conservative 37.7%vs Lib Dem 32.0% | 2023 Lib Dem 40.8%vs Conservative 38.1% | - | 31.4% |
| Severn Vale | Conservative 43.5%vs Lib Dem 34.9% | 2023 Lib Dem 46.7%vs Conservative 44.9% | - | 44.1% |
| Thornbury | Lib Dem 42.4%vs Conservative 26.4% | 2023 Lib Dem 67.8%vs Conservative 17.2% | - | 47.8% |
| Yate Central | Lib Dem 40.2%vs Conservative 28.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 65.5%vs Conservative 27.6% | - | 32.7% |
| Yate North | Lib Dem 40.9%vs Conservative 27.9% | 2023 Lib Dem 75.2%vs Conservative 24.8% | - | 31.1% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Thornbury and Yate at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Thornbury and Yate at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | LD hold | Steve Webb | 7.0% | 37.2% | 51.9% | 7,116 | 75.2% |
| 2015 | Con gain from LD | Luke Hall | 7.8% | 41.0% | 37.9% | 1,495 | 73.5%-1.7 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Luke Hall | 12.1% | 55.3% | 31.4% | 12,071 | 74.7%+1.2 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Luke Hall 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 8.7% | 58.5% | 32.6% | 14,538 | 74.8%+0.1 |
| 2024 | LD gain from Con | Claire Young | 9.5% | 33.4% | 39.0% | 3,014 | 68.3%-6.5 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Thornbury and Yate
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Thornbury and Yate. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied78.0 / 76.4vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent12.3 / 11.5vs 20.2
- ↓Social rent8.8 / 11.1vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied78.0 / 78.6vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent8.8 / 7.8vs 16.8
- ↓Private rent12.3 / 12.9vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied78.0 / 73.6vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent12.3 / 13.4vs 20.2
- ↓Social rent8.8 / 11.6vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied78.0 / 76.4vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent12.3 / 11.8vs 20.2
- ↓Social rent8.8 / 10.9vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied78.0 / 74.4vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent12.3 / 11.8vs 20.2
- ↓Under 3525.9 / 24.9vs 30.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.