Constituency profile

Bromsgrove

West Midlands · County constituency · Bromsgrove borough

Bradley Thomas MP
Sitting MP

Bradley Thomas

Conservative

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
West Midlands
County constituency, Bromsgrove council
Last 5 GE winners
CCCCC
Conservative 5/5
EU referendum 2016
55.4% Leave
UK average 51.9%; +3.5pp above mean
Current outlook
Conservative +5.0pp
vs Reform UK 26.6%
MidlandsLeave-leaning

About the Bromsgrove constituency

Bromsgrove is a county constituency in the West Midlands. The sitting MP is Bradley Thomas (Conservative), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 32.8% to 26.8% for Labour, a majority of 3,016 votes on a 65.9% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 31.7% and Reform UK on 26.6%, a margin of 5.0 points.

Who lives in Bromsgrove? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
55.4%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
36.6%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
15.7%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
77.5%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
21.3%
UK average ~36%
Median age
45.7
UK median ~40
Age 65+
27.6%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
24.2%
UK average ~28%

How did Bromsgrove vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Con hold · majority 3,016 votes (6.0pp) · turnout 65.9%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Bromsgrove

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Bromsgrove within Bromsgrove

Bromsgrove sits entirely within Bromsgrove Council. Bromsgrove was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
Bromsgrove
60 LSOAs
100%

Recent council by-elections

Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.

DateWardResultTop 3 vote shares
20 Sep 2024Sidemoor
Bromsgrove
LD GAIN from Lab—

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
Alvechurch SouthConservative 39.4%vs Labour 20.2%2023 Independent 57.3%vs Conservative 24.9%-40.3%
Alvechurch VillageConservative 31.1%vs Labour 24.7%2023 Independent 55.7%vs Labour 19.0%-38.6%
Aston FieldsLabour 31.7%vs Conservative 29.1%2023 Labour 36.0%vs Conservative 29.4%-38.1%
AvoncroftConservative 32.1%vs Labour 25.5%2023 Lib Dem 44.5%vs Labour 35.0%-32.5%
Barnt Green & HopwoodConservative 28.7%vs Labour 25.6%2023 Independent 68.9%vs Conservative 18.7%-41.5%
Belbroughton & RomsleyConservative 42.0%vs Reform 19.1%2023 Conservative 69.2%vs Independent 20.1%-38.6%
Bromsgrove CentralConservative 29.4%vs Lib Dem 24.9%2023 Lib Dem 73.7%vs Conservative 14.9%-44.1%
Catshill NorthConservative 29.6%vs Labour 29.1%2023 Independent 36.0%vs Labour 33.9%-26.4%
Catshill SouthConservative 36.1%vs Labour 24.7%2023 Conservative 51.6%vs Labour 35.1%-26.4%
CharfordLabour 34.5%vs Conservative 23.4%2023 Labour 57.7%vs Conservative 29.7%-21.3%
CoftonConservative 37.1%vs Labour 27.1%2023 Conservative 38.0%vs Labour 33.0%-32.1%
Drakes CrossConservative 31.0%vs Labour 28.3%2023 Independent 56.5%vs Conservative 29.6%-27.0%
Hagley EastConservative 31.7%vs Labour 27.2%2023 Conservative 45.8%vs Independent 41.8%-34.5%
Hagley WestLabour 29.2%vs Conservative 27.1%2023 Independent 78.0%vs Conservative 14.6%-35.7%
Hill TopLabour 47.0%vs Conservative 21.2%2023 Labour 67.1%vs Conservative 16.7%-33.0%
HollywoodConservative 38.5%vs Reform 20.9%2023 Conservative 74.3%vs Labour 25.7%-30.9%
Lickey HillsConservative 36.7%vs Labour 20.9%2023 Conservative 55.5%vs Lib Dem 35.3%-42.0%
Lowes HillConservative 29.3%vs Labour 26.6%2023 Lib Dem 73.9%vs Conservative 26.1%-34.9%
MarlbrookConservative 42.5%vs Labour 24.2%2023 Conservative 50.8%vs Labour 25.5%-36.1%
NortonLabour 27.4%vs Lib Dem 27.3%2023 Lib Dem 89.4%vs Conservative 10.6%-40.5%
PerryfieldsConservative 37.0%vs Labour 26.6%2023 Conservative 47.5%vs Labour 34.6%-33.4%
Rock HillLabour 38.3%vs Conservative 27.1%2023 Labour 61.8%vs Conservative 23.2%-30.4%
Rubery NorthLabour 34.5%vs Conservative 27.5%2023 Labour 65.1%vs Conservative 34.9%-33.4%
Rubery SouthLabour 34.5%vs Conservative 29.8%2023 Labour 56.6%vs Conservative 35.2%-32.4%
Sanders ParkLabour 29.8%vs Conservative 29.1%2023 Labour 37.5%vs Lib Dem 26.2%-33.5%
SidemoorLabour 29.9%vs Conservative 27.3%2023 Labour 45.8%vs Lib Dem 27.7%-28.5%
SlideslowConservative 35.8%vs Labour 22.8%2023 Lib Dem 65.1%vs Conservative 34.9%-36.2%
TardebiggeConservative 42.3%vs Labour 22.5%2023 Conservative 53.9%vs Labour 24.1%-33.9%
Wythall EastConservative 35.9%vs Labour 25.4%2023 Conservative 54.9%vs Independent 45.1%-28.0%
Wythall WestConservative 38.7%vs Reform 20.7%2023 Independent 51.2%vs Conservative 48.8%-29.8%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Bromsgrove at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Bromsgrove at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010Con holdSajid Javid21.8%43.7%19.6%5.7% UKIP-9.2%11,30870.7%
2015Con holdSajid Javid22.2%53.8%5.0%15.6% UKIP3.3%-16,52971.2%+0.5
2017Con holdSajid Javid31.3%62.0%4.6%-2.1%-16,57373.5%+2.3
2019notionalConservative winnerSajid Javid 2019 MP, pre-review boundary20.8%63.4%12.5%-3.3%-23,10672.1%-1.4
2024Con holdBradley Thomas26.8%32.8%14.7%19.0% Ref3.3%3.4%3,01665.9%-6.2

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Bromsgrove

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Bromsgrove. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

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