Constituency profile

West Worcestershire

West Midlands · County constituency

Dame Harriett Baldwin MP
Sitting MP

Dame Harriett Baldwin

Conservative

First elected May 2010

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
West Midlands
County constituency
Last 5 GE winners
CCCCC
Conservative 5/5
EU referendum 2016
52.5% Leave
UK average 51.9%; +0.6pp above mean
Current outlook
Conservative +7.0pp
vs Reform UK 27.0%
MidlandsBrexit-marginal

About the West Worcestershire constituency

West Worcestershire is a county constituency in the West Midlands. The sitting MP is Dame Harriett Baldwin (Conservative), first elected in May 2010. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 36.2% to 24.2% for the Liberal Democrats, a majority of 6,547 votes on a 69.0% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 34.1% and Reform UK on 27.0%, a margin of 7.0 points.

Who lives in West Worcestershire? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
52.5%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
38.5%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
14.7%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
71.1%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
27.6%
UK average ~36%
Median age
51.2
UK median ~40
Age 65+
33.2%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
21.4%
UK average ~28%

How did West Worcestershire vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Con hold · majority 6,547 votes (12.0pp) · turnout 69.0%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of West Worcestershire

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

West Worcestershire within Malvern Hills and Wychavon

West Worcestershire crosses council boundaries: Malvern Hills (78%), Wychavon (22%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
Malvern Hills
45 LSOAs
78%
Wychavon
13 LSOAs
22%

Recent council by-elections

Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.

DateWardResultTop 3 vote shares
21 May 2026Alfrick, Leigh & Rushwick
Malvern Hills
LD GAIN from LocalLD 26% Con 22% Other 22%
30 Apr 2026Tenbury
Malvern Hills
Ref GAIN from ConRef 45% Con 30% LD 13%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
Alfrick, Leigh & RushwickConservative 34.5%vs Lib Dem 24.0%2023 Others 79.0%vs Conservative 11.7%-39.2%
BaldwinConservative 42.4%vs Lib Dem 22.1%2023 Conservative 68.8%vs Lib Dem 16.6%-45.0%
Barnards GreenConservative 28.8%vs Lib Dem 28.1%2023 Lib Dem 33.0%vs Green 27.5%-42.4%
BredonConservative 45.6%vs Lib Dem 20.8%2023 Conservative 61.2%vs Lib Dem 23.8%-39.4%
Bredon HillConservative 39.8%vs Lib Dem 26.8%2023 Conservative 59.4%vs Lib Dem 40.6%-38.0%
BroadheathConservative 40.3%vs Lib Dem 23.0%2023 Independent 76.8%vs Conservative 19.7%-43.2%
Broadway, Sedgeberrow & ChildswickhamConservative 48.9%vs Labour 17.8%2023 Conservative 64.0%vs Lib Dem 31.8%-34.4%
Castlemorton, Welland & WellsConservative 33.3%vs Lib Dem 24.6%2023 Independent 49.5%vs Conservative 33.5%-47.3%
EckingtonConservative 41.0%vs Lib Dem 22.3%2023 Conservative 34.3%vs Independent 32.9%-45.6%
Great MalvernConservative 31.1%vs Lib Dem 24.6%2023 Independent 52.6%vs Conservative 31.6%-44.6%
Hallow & HoltConservative 39.7%vs Lib Dem 19.9%2023 Independent 59.4%vs Conservative 31.7%-37.5%
KempseyConservative 35.9%vs Lib Dem 22.8%2023 Independent 67.4%vs Conservative 23.3%-42.6%
LindridgeConservative 43.5%vs Lib Dem 20.9%2023 Conservative 64.9%vs Green 21.5%-35.1%
LinkConservative 32.7%vs Lib Dem 28.0%2023 Lib Dem 29.7%vs Independent 22.4%-49.1%
LongdonConservative 42.9%vs Lib Dem 23.7%2023 Conservative 60.3%vs Green 21.1%-39.5%
MartleyConservative 44.5%vs Lib Dem 20.7%2023 Conservative 58.7%vs Lib Dem 22.9%-36.9%
PershoreLib Dem 33.4%vs Conservative 33.0%2023 Lib Dem 68.9%vs Conservative 26.8%-41.5%
PickersleighLib Dem 29.6%vs Conservative 28.7%2023 Lib Dem 45.5%vs Conservative 22.3%-23.2%
Powick & the HanleysConservative 34.5%vs Lib Dem 20.8%2023 Independent 78.0%vs Conservative 17.5%-46.1%
TenburyConservative 39.9%vs Lib Dem 21.2%2023 Conservative 48.9%vs Others 34.4%-44.7%
Upper HowsellConservative 32.2%vs Lib Dem 17.6%2023 Green 54.8%vs Conservative 23.9%-28.1%
Upton & RippleConservative 39.0%vs Lib Dem 18.6%2023 Green 56.1%vs Conservative 36.9%-32.5%
WestConservative 29.5%vs Lib Dem 21.3%2023 Green 81.3%vs Conservative 11.2%-40.6%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for West Worcestershire at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won West Worcestershire at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010Con holdHarriett Baldwin6.8%50.3%37.8%3.9% UKIP1.2%-6,75474.3%
2015Con holdHarriett Baldwin13.4%56.1%9.7%14.4% UKIP6.5%-22,57873.7%-0.6
2017Con holdHarriett Baldwin23.7%61.5%9.4%2.6% UKIP2.8%-21,32875.9%+2.2
2019notionalConservative winnerHarriett Baldwin 2019 MP, pre-review boundary16.5%60.7%18.1%-4.7%-24,49975.1%-0.8
2024Con holdHarriett Baldwin15.2%36.2%24.2%14.4% Ref9.3%0.7%6,54769.0%-6.1

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like West Worcestershire

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to West Worcestershire. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

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