Melksham and Devizes
South West · County constituency · Wiltshire
About the Melksham and Devizes constituency
Melksham and Devizes is a county constituency in the South West. The sitting MP is Brian Mathew (Liberal Democrat), MP since July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats won with 39.1% to 34.4% for the Conservatives, a majority of 2,401 votes on a 69.7% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Liberal Democrats on 29.2% and the Conservatives on 26.2%, a margin of 3.0 points.
Who lives in Melksham and Devizes? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Melksham and Devizes vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Melksham and Devizes
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Melksham and Devizes within Wiltshire
Melksham and Devizes sits entirely within Wiltshire Council. Wiltshire was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results with vote counts available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Wiltshire | 100% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent result with vote counts available. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowerhill | Conservative 43.2%vs Lib Dem 31.0% | 2025 Conservative 45.2%vs Reform 34.3% | - | 34.0% |
| Box & Colerne | Lib Dem 48.6%vs Conservative 27.9% | 2025 Lib Dem 51.6%vs Conservative 32.7% | - | 42.0% |
| Bradford-on-Avon North | Lib Dem 49.8%vs Conservative 26.5% | 2025 Lib Dem 58.9%vs Reform 13.1% | - | 44.0% |
| Bradford-on-Avon South | Lib Dem 51.9%vs Conservative 24.4% | 2025 Lib Dem 63.3%vs Conservative 15.4% | - | 42.0% |
| Bromham, Rowde & Roundway | Conservative 39.1%vs Lib Dem 36.2% | 2025 Conservative 60.7%vs Reform 18.3% | - | 39.0% |
| Calne South | Lib Dem 48.7%vs Conservative 28.5% | 2025 Lib Dem 66.9%vs Reform 19.6% | - | 37.0% |
| Devizes East | Conservative 35.4%vs Lib Dem 35.0% | 2025 Lib Dem 35.8%vs Conservative 29.2% | - | 34.0% |
| Devizes North | Conservative 37.8%vs Lib Dem 29.1% | 2025 Lib Dem 34.4%vs Conservative 28.6% | - | 37.0% |
| Devizes Rural West | Conservative 38.9%vs Lib Dem 36.0% | 2025 Conservative 51.5%vs Lib Dem 26.7% | - | 41.0% |
| Devizes South | Conservative 38.8%vs Lib Dem 32.3% | 2025 Conservative 38.0%vs Lib Dem 37.4% | - | 42.0% |
| Holt | Lib Dem 50.3%vs Conservative 27.2% | 2025 Lib Dem 61.3%vs Labour 21.5% | - | 36.0% |
| Melksham East | Lib Dem 37.0%vs Conservative 35.1% | 2025 Lib Dem 39.9%vs Reform 27.3% | - | 23.0% |
| Melksham Forest | Lib Dem 37.2%vs Conservative 28.4% | 2025 Lib Dem 42.3%vs Reform 30.7% | - | 27.0% |
| Melksham South | Conservative 34.3%vs Lib Dem 32.2% | 2025 Independent 28.8%vs Conservative 26.9% | - | 32.0% |
| Melksham Without North & Shurnhold | Conservative 39.5%vs Lib Dem 31.7% | 2025 Conservative 49.8%vs Lib Dem 30.0% | - | 35.0% |
| Melksham Without West & Rural | Conservative 41.0%vs Lib Dem 34.0% | 2025 Lib Dem 36.2%vs Conservative 35.8% | - | 41.0% |
| The Lavingtons | Conservative 43.9%vs Lib Dem 30.4% | 2025 Conservative 48.2%vs Lib Dem 28.9% | - | 44.0% |
| Urchfont & Bishops Cannings | Lib Dem 37.1%vs Conservative 36.2% | 2025 Conservative 43.7%vs Lib Dem 28.9% | - | 37.0% |
| Winsley & Westwood | Lib Dem 42.5%vs Conservative 34.0% | 2025 Lib Dem 47.2%vs Conservative 30.8% | - | 45.0% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Melksham and Devizes at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Melksham and Devizes at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con hold | Claire Perry Devizes MP | 10.2% | 55.1% | 27.0% | 13,005 | 68.8% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | Claire Perry Devizes MP | 13.0% | 57.7% | 8.1% | 20,751 | 70.8%+2.0 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | Claire Perry Devizes MP | 21.0% | 62.7% | 9.3% | 21,136 | 70.1%-0.7 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Danny Kruger Devizes MP, pre-review boundary | 12.0% | 57.8% | 27.3% | 17,028 | 77.6% |
| 2024 | LD gain from Con | Brian Mathew | 9.0% | 34.4% | 39.1% | 2,401 | 69.7%-7.9 |
Melksham and Devizes was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Devizes (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Melksham and Devizes
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Melksham and Devizes. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied71.1 / 73.6vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent12.9 / 12.6vs 20.2
- ↑Age 65+29.0 / 28.7vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied71.1 / 74.4vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent12.9 / 11.8vs 20.2
- ↑Age 65+29.0 / 28.0vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied71.1 / 71.9vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3523.3 / 22.3vs 30.2
- ↓Private rent12.9 / 13.6vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied71.1 / 70.9vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3523.3 / 24.3vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+29.0 / 28.2vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied71.1 / 73.6vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent12.9 / 13.4vs 20.2
- ↓Under 3523.3 / 25.2vs 30.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic model at the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls, built from the British Election Study Internet Panel (Fieldhouse et al.), Census 2021 (ONS) and Scotland's Census 2022 (NRS). The trajectory was recalculated with the current model, introduced in autumn 2026.
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