Melksham and Devizes
South West · County constituency · Wiltshire borough
About the Melksham and Devizes constituency
Melksham and Devizes is a county constituency in the South West, covering most or all of Wiltshire. The sitting MP is Brian Mathew (Liberal Democrat), first elected in July 2024.
At the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats won Melksham and Devizes with 39.1% of the vote, ahead of the Conservatives on 34.4%, a majority of 2,401 votes. Turnout was 69.7%.
If a general election were held today, PollCheck's projection at the current seven-poll average has the Liberal Democrats on 33.1% and the Conservatives on 27.4% in Melksham and Devizes, a margin of 5.7 points. The projection updates automatically as new polls are added.
Demographically, Melksham and Devizes is closely divided in the 2016 EU referendum (an estimated 53.1% voted Leave in 2016). About 34.6% of residents hold a degree, 71.1% of homes are owner-occupied, and the seat has a median age of about 48 (2021 Census).
Across the last 5 general elections on record, the seat has been won by the Conservatives 4 times, the Liberal Democrats 1 time (earlier years may be on predecessor boundaries).
Who lives in Melksham and Devizes? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Melksham and Devizes vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Melksham and Devizes
Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.
Melksham and Devizes within Wiltshire
The Westminster constituency of Melksham and Devizes sits entirely within Wiltshire Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - English councils rotate their election cycles and Wiltshire was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below show the most recent council ward results available.
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Wiltshire | 100% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward. Where the council held a May 2026 election, those results are shown; otherwise we show the most recent available ward result (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024), or, where the seat was uncontested at the last election, the current sitting councillor from OpenCouncilData. The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Melksham and Devizes at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Melksham and Devizes at past general elections?
2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con hold | Claire Perry Devizes MP | 10.2% | 55.1% | 27.0% | 13,005 | 68.8% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | Claire Perry Devizes MP | 13.0% | 57.7% | 8.1% | 20,751 | 70.8%+2.0 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | Claire Perry Devizes MP | 21.0% | 62.7% | 9.3% | 21,136 | 70.1%-0.7 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Danny Kruger Devizes MP, pre-review boundary | 12.0% | 57.8% | 27.3% | 17,028 | 77.6% |
| 2024 | LD gain from Con | Brian Mathew | 9.0% | 34.4% | 39.1% | 2,401 | 69.7%-7.9 |
Melksham and Devizes was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Devizes (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Melksham and Devizes
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Melksham and Devizes. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied71.1 / 73.6vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent12.9 / 12.6vs 20.2
- ↑Age 65+29.0 / 28.7vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied71.1 / 74.4vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent12.9 / 11.8vs 20.2
- ↑Age 65+29.0 / 28.0vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied71.1 / 71.9vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3523.3 / 22.3vs 30.2
- ↓Private rent12.9 / 13.6vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied71.1 / 70.9vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3523.3 / 24.3vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+29.0 / 28.2vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied71.1 / 73.6vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent12.9 / 13.4vs 20.2
- ↓Under 3523.3 / 25.2vs 30.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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