Monmouthshire
Wales · County constituency · Monmouthshire borough
About the Monmouthshire constituency
Monmouthshire is a county constituency in Wales. The sitting MP is Catherine Fookes (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 41.3% to 34.8% for the Conservatives, a majority of 3,338 votes on a 68.0% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 31.4% and Labour on 24.4%, a margin of 7.0 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Monmouthshire? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Monmouthshire vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Monmouthshire
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
How Monmouthshire voted at the Senedd election (7 May 2026)
Monmouthshire sits almost entirely within the Senedd constituency of Sir Fynwy Torfaen. Senedd elections use a closed-list proportional system; each Senedd seat returns six members.
| Senedd constituency | Share of Monmouthshire | Winner | Runner-up | Seats (6 per constituency) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sir Fynwy Torfaen | 99% | Reform UK 31.1% | Plaid Cymru 23.5% | 2 Reform UK, 2 Plaid Cymru, 1 Conservative, 1 Labour |
Senedd 2026 results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new 16-seat Senedd boundary.
Monmouthshire within Monmouthshire
Monmouthshire sits entirely within Monmouthshire Council. Monmouthshire was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Monmouthshire | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Oct 2024 | Town | Con GAIN from Lab | — |
| 21 Oct 2022 | Devauden | Con HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bulwark and Thornwell | Labour 48.8%vs Conservative 24.9% | 2022 Labour 67.7%vs Conservative 25.5% | - | - |
| Caerwent | Conservative 45.2%vs Labour 34.5% | 2022 Conservative 60.8%vs Labour 22.3% | - | - |
| Caldicot Castle | Labour 42.2%vs Conservative 35.0% | 2022 Labour 42.4%vs Conservative 32.4% | - | - |
| Caldicot Cross | Labour 48.8%vs Conservative 27.5% | 2022 Labour 47.1%vs Independent 24.8% | - | - |
| Cantref | Labour 49.1%vs Conservative 32.9% | 2022 Labour 49.3%vs Conservative 38.4% | - | - |
| Chepstow Castle and Larkfield | Labour 44.5%vs Conservative 28.4% | 2022 Labour 42.3%vs Conservative 30.4% | - | - |
| Croesonen | Labour 49.4%vs Conservative 26.2% | 2022 Labour 66.2%vs Conservative 26.4% | - | - |
| Crucorney | Conservative 39.9%vs Labour 32.6% | 2022 Independent 47.9%vs Conservative 28.9% | - | - |
| Devauden | Conservative 42.2%vs Labour 38.8% | 2022 Conservative 49.3%vs Labour 30.7% | - | - |
| Dewstow | Labour 54.1%vs Conservative 23.0% | 2022 Labour 71.5%vs Conservative 18.4% | - | - |
| Drybridge | Labour 45.5%vs Conservative 29.8% | 2022 Labour 36.2%vs Conservative 29.3% | - | - |
| Gobion Fawr | Conservative 42.6%vs Labour 37.0% | 2022 Conservative 52.0%vs Labour 24.5% | - | - |
| Goetre Fawr | Labour 40.7%vs Conservative 37.6% | 2022 Conservative 49.8%vs Labour 37.8% | - | - |
| Grofield | Labour 47.2%vs Conservative 27.7% | 2022 Labour 60.7%vs Conservative 39.3% | - | - |
| Lansdown | Labour 47.8%vs Conservative 23.5% | 2022 Labour 63.2%vs Conservative 20.9% | - | - |
| Llanbadoc and Usk | Conservative 44.9%vs Labour 31.6% | 2022 Independent 41.8%vs Conservative 38.1% | - | - |
| Llanelly | Labour 41.9%vs Conservative 36.8% | 2022 Independent 37.6%vs Labour 28.6% | - | 57.6% |
| Llanfoist Fawr and Govilon | Labour 41.2%vs Conservative 35.4% | 2022 Labour 50.9%vs Conservative 49.1% | - | - |
| Llangybi Fawr | Conservative 44.5%vs Labour 30.9% | 2022 Conservative 47.2%vs Independent 34.4% | - | - |
| Llantilio Crossenny | Conservative 41.1%vs Labour 31.7% | 2022 Green 52.7%vs Conservative 36.6% | - | - |
| Magor East with Undy | Labour 45.0%vs Conservative 33.8% | 2022 Labour 56.9%vs Conservative 38.4% | - | - |
| Magor West | Conservative 34.1%vs Labour 33.0% | 2022 Independent 76.9%vs Labour 14.1% | - | - |
| Mardy | Conservative 39.0%vs Labour 36.5% | 2022 Conservative 42.0%vs Labour 29.2% | - | - |
| Mitchel Troy and Trellech United | Conservative 42.8%vs Labour 33.1% | 2022 Conservative 49.4%vs Lib Dem 20.9% | - | - |
| Mount Pleasant | Conservative 37.6%vs Labour 35.8% | 2022 Conservative 42.6%vs Lib Dem 38.9% | - | - |
| Osbaston | Conservative 39.7%vs Labour 39.3% | 2022 Conservative 48.6%vs Labour 28.1% | - | - |
| Overmonnow | Labour 47.4%vs Conservative 28.3% | 2022 Labour 45.3%vs Conservative 34.6% | - | - |
| Park | Labour 49.9%vs Conservative 25.6% | 2022 Labour 75.3%vs Conservative 24.7% | - | - |
| Pen Y Fal | Labour 42.7%vs Conservative 35.3% | 2022 Conservative 45.5%vs Labour 44.0% | - | - |
| Portskewett | Conservative 39.2%vs Labour 38.0% | 2022 Conservative 61.2%vs Labour 31.9% | - | - |
| Raglan | Conservative 41.3%vs Labour 32.8% | 2022 Conservative 46.6%vs Lib Dem 32.5% | - | - |
| Rogiet | Labour 45.6%vs Conservative 27.9% | 2022 Independent 52.4%vs Labour 31.7% | - | - |
| Severn | Labour 44.6%vs Conservative 28.0% | 2022 Labour 43.3%vs Lib Dem 26.1% | - | - |
| Shirenewton | Conservative 40.5%vs Labour 35.8% | 2022 Conservative 61.5%vs Labour 38.5% | - | - |
| St Arvans | Conservative 41.0%vs Labour 39.1% | 2022 Conservative 43.7%vs Labour 27.8% | - | - |
| St Kingsmark | Conservative 39.1%vs Labour 37.6% | 2022 Conservative 55.7%vs Labour 29.6% | - | - |
| Town | Labour 48.6%vs Conservative 27.7% | 2022 Labour 46.3%vs Conservative 29.0% | - | - |
| West End | Labour 50.1%vs Conservative 22.6% | 2022 Labour 65.8%vs Independent 21.0% | - | - |
| Wyesham | Labour 38.8%vs Conservative 31.7% | 2022 Independent 46.1%vs Conservative 31.3% | - | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Monmouthshire at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Monmouthshire at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con hold | David Davies Monmouth MP | 25.9% | 48.3% | 19.4% | 10,425 | 72.1% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | David Davies Monmouth MP | 26.8% | 49.9% | 5.3% | 10,982 | 76.2%+4.1 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | David Davies Monmouth MP | 36.6% | 53.1% | 4.2% | 8,206 | 76.6%+0.4 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | David T. C. Davies Monmouth MP, pre-review boundary | 31.6% | 52.1% | 9.6% | 10,837 | 72.7% |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Catherine Fookes | 41.3% | 34.8% | 4.5% | 3,338 | 68.0%-4.7 |
Monmouthshire was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Monmouth (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Monmouthshire
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Monmouthshire. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied71.9 / 71.1vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3522.3 / 21.4vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+30.4 / 33.2vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied71.9 / 72.9vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+30.4 / 30.6vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3522.3 / 21.2vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied71.9 / 70.3vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3522.3 / 21.9vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+30.4 / 31.0vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied71.9 / 71.1vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3522.3 / 23.3vs 30.2
- ↓Private rent13.6 / 12.9vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied71.9 / 76.3vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3522.3 / 21.5vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+30.4 / 30.1vs 22.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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