Cardiff North
Wales · Borough constituency
About the Cardiff North constituency
Cardiff North is a borough constituency in Wales. The sitting MP is Anna McMorrin (Labour), first elected in June 2017. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 43.9% to 20.3% for the Conservatives, a majority of 11,207 votes on a 66.4% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 28.4% and Plaid Cymru on 21.3%, a margin of 7.2 points.
Who lives in Cardiff North? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Cardiff North vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Cardiff North
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
How Cardiff North voted at the Senedd election (7 May 2026)
Cardiff North sits almost entirely within the Senedd constituency of Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf. Senedd elections use a closed-list proportional system; each Senedd seat returns six members.
| Senedd constituency | Share of Cardiff North | Winner | Runner-up | Seats (6 per constituency) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf | 96% | Plaid Cymru 37.0% | Reform UK 19.6% | 3 Plaid Cymru, 1 Reform UK, 1 Labour, 1 Green |
| Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr | 2% | Plaid Cymru 39.5% | Reform UK 30.6% | 3 Plaid Cymru, 2 Reform UK, 1 Labour |
Senedd 2026 results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new 16-seat Senedd boundary.
Cardiff North within Cardiff
Cardiff North sits almost entirely within Cardiff Council. Cardiff was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Cardiff | 97% |
| Rhondda Cynon Taf | 3% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabalfa | Labour 43.9%vs Lib Dem 15.2% | 2022 Lib Dem 48.2%vs Labour 36.2% | - | - |
| Heath | Labour 46.6%vs Conservative 18.4% | 2022 Labour 52.0%vs Conservative 23.6% | - | - |
| Lisvane and Thornhill | Labour 42.4%vs Conservative 24.9% | 2022 Conservative 47.4%vs Labour 40.4% | - | - |
| Llandaff North | Labour 49.4%vs Conservative 13.9% | 2022 Labour 58.3%vs Others 27.1% | - | - |
| Llanishen | Labour 47.3%vs Conservative 18.2% | 2022 Labour 55.0%vs Conservative 26.0% | - | - |
| Pontprennau and Old St Mellons | Labour 40.6%vs Conservative 24.5% | 2022 Conservative 45.8%vs Labour 38.9% | - | - |
| Rhiwbina | Labour 41.1%vs Conservative 26.8% | 2022 Conservative 48.0%vs Labour 37.1% | - | - |
| Taff's Well | Labour 44.1%vs Conservative 15.0% | 2017 Labour 49.6%vs Plaid Cymru 30.3% | - | - |
| Whitchurch and Tongwynlais | Labour 42.8%vs Conservative 19.8% | 2022 Labour 40.3%vs Conservative 27.2% | - | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Cardiff North at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Cardiff North at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con gain from Lab | Jonathan Evans | 37.1% | 37.5% | 18.3% | 194 | 72.7% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Craig Williams | 38.3% | 42.4% | 3.8% | 2,137 | 76.1%+3.4 |
| 2017 | Lab gain from Con | Anna McMorrin | 50.1% | 42.1% | 3.3% | 4,174 | 77.4%+1.3 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Anna McMorrin 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 49.6% | 35.7% | 6.5% | 7,579 | 76.9%-0.5 |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Anna McMorrin | 43.9% | 20.3% | 6.7% | 11,207 | 66.4%-10.5 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Cardiff North
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Cardiff North. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied73.8 / 75.4vs 61.9
- ↓Leave39.1 / 41.5vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate44.4 / 46.2vs 33.7
- ↓Leave39.1 / 35.4vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied73.8 / 74.4vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate44.4 / 42.9vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied73.8 / 75.5vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate44.4 / 47.8vs 33.7
- ↓Leave39.1 / 42.7vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied73.8 / 72.5vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate44.4 / 42.9vs 33.7
- ↓Leave39.1 / 45.0vs 53.2
- ↓Leave39.1 / 41.0vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied73.8 / 79.4vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate44.4 / 51.6vs 33.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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