Esher and Walton
South East · Borough constituency · Elmbridge borough
About the Esher and Walton constituency
Esher and Walton is a borough constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Monica Harding (Liberal Democrat), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats won with 52.5% to 30.3% for the Conservatives, a majority of 12,003 votes on a 72.8% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Liberal Democrats on 44.7% and the Conservatives on 24.2%, a margin of 20.5 points.
Who lives in Esher and Walton? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Esher and Walton vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Esher and Walton
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Esher and Walton within Elmbridge
Esher and Walton sits entirely within Elmbridge Council. Elmbridge was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Elmbridge | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct 2024 | Hersham Village | Con GAIN from LD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claygate | Lib Dem 61.6%vs Conservative 25.2% | 2024 Independent 39.9%vs Lib Dem 33.5% | - | - |
| Esher | Lib Dem 46.1%vs Conservative 34.9% | 2024 Others 46.5%vs Conservative 35.6% | - | - |
| Hersham Village | Lib Dem 50.5%vs Conservative 32.0% | 2024 Lib Dem 49.3%vs Conservative 44.2% | - | - |
| Hinchley Wood and Weston Green | Lib Dem 49.4%vs Conservative 28.8% | 2024 Others 63.0%vs Lib Dem 17.2% | - | - |
| Long Ditton | Lib Dem 61.6%vs Conservative 24.8% | 2024 Lib Dem 69.5%vs Conservative 22.3% | - | - |
| Molesey East | Lib Dem 51.7%vs Conservative 32.8% | 2024 Lib Dem 48.1%vs Conservative 35.7% | - | - |
| Molesey West | Lib Dem 50.6%vs Conservative 28.7% | 2024 Others 44.7%vs Lib Dem 32.5% | - | - |
| Oatlands and Burwood Park | Lib Dem 47.1%vs Conservative 39.0% | 2024 Conservative 48.3%vs Lib Dem 43.3% | - | - |
| Thames Ditton | Lib Dem 52.5%vs Conservative 27.2% | 2024 Others 50.8%vs Lib Dem 30.1% | - | - |
| Walton Central | Lib Dem 51.9%vs Conservative 29.1% | 2024 Lib Dem 43.6%vs Others 33.5% | - | - |
| Walton North | Lib Dem 51.5%vs Conservative 29.4% | 2024 Lib Dem 62.9%vs Conservative 25.2% | - | - |
| Walton South | Lib Dem 54.0%vs Conservative 30.6% | 2024 Lib Dem 51.6%vs Conservative 37.9% | - | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Esher and Walton at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Esher and Walton at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Dominic Raab | 10.7% | 58.9% | 24.8% | 18,593 | 72.4% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Dominic Raab | 12.7% | 62.9% | 9.4% | 28,616 | 71.3%-1.1 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Dominic Raab | 19.7% | 58.6% | 17.3% | 23,298 | 73.9%+2.6 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Dominic Raab 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 4.8% | 49.5% | 44.2% | 3,015 | 76.7%+2.8 |
| 2024 | LD gain from Con | Monica Harding | 5.3% | 30.3% | 52.6% | 12,003 | 72.8%-3.9 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Esher and Walton
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Esher and Walton. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Graduate51.5 / 47.8vs 33.7
- ↓Leave41.6 / 42.7vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied72.3 / 75.5vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate51.5 / 51.8vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied72.3 / 75.3vs 61.9
- ↓No quals10.9 / 9.9vs 18.0
- ↑Graduate51.5 / 48.7vs 33.7
- ↓Leave41.6 / 38.6vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied72.3 / 74.3vs 61.9
- ↓Leave41.6 / 41.5vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate51.5 / 46.2vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied72.3 / 75.4vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate51.5 / 51.7vs 33.7
- ↓Leave41.6 / 37.8vs 53.2
- ↓No quals10.9 / 11.0vs 18.0
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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