Harpenden and Berkhamsted
East of England · County constituency
About the Harpenden and Berkhamsted constituency
Harpenden and Berkhamsted is a county constituency in the East of England. The sitting MP is Victoria Collins (Liberal Democrat), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats won with 50.2% to 30.5% for the Conservatives, a majority of 10,708 votes on a 75.2% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Liberal Democrats on 45.6% and the Conservatives on 21.4%, a margin of 24.2 points.
Who lives in Harpenden and Berkhamsted? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Harpenden and Berkhamsted vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Harpenden and Berkhamsted
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Harpenden and Berkhamsted within Dacorum and St Albans
Harpenden and Berkhamsted crosses council boundaries: Dacorum (50%), St Albans (50%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Dacorum | 50% | — |
| St Albans | 50% | View projection › |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jul 2025 | Berkhamsted West | LD HOLD | LD 56% Con 31% Grn 9% |
| 16 Feb 2024 | Tring West and Rural | LD HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aldbury and Wigginton | Lib Dem 50.4%vs Conservative 30.2% | 2023 Lib Dem 57.3%vs Conservative 37.4% | - | 43.6% |
| Ashridge | Conservative 41.8%vs Lib Dem 39.7% | 2023 Conservative 67.5%vs Lib Dem 25.1% | - | 45.5% |
| Berkhamsted Castle | Lib Dem 54.0%vs Conservative 28.9% | 2023 Lib Dem 63.2%vs Conservative 23.8% | - | 48.0% |
| Berkhamsted East | Lib Dem 54.9%vs Conservative 24.5% | 2023 Lib Dem 63.1%vs Conservative 18.8% | - | 48.0% |
| Berkhamsted West | Lib Dem 50.6%vs Conservative 28.9% | 2023 Lib Dem 69.6%vs Conservative 14.7% | - | 38.9% |
| Harpenden East | Lib Dem 52.3%vs Conservative 28.2% | May 2026 Lib Dem 44.9%vs Conservative 27.4% | Lib Dem share -7.4pp | - |
| Harpenden North & Rural | Lib Dem 53.0%vs Conservative 28.7% | May 2026 Lib Dem 40.7%vs Conservative 30.4% | Lib Dem share -12.4pp | - |
| Harpenden South | Lib Dem 45.8%vs Conservative 35.9% | May 2026 Conservative 42.7%vs Lib Dem 32.4% | Lib Dem→Conservative +10.1pp | - |
| Harpenden West | Lib Dem 49.5%vs Conservative 32.0% | May 2026 Conservative 40.4%vs Lib Dem 39.8% | Lib Dem→Conservative +9.1pp | - |
| Marshalswick East & Jersey Farm | Lib Dem 52.1%vs Conservative 26.7% | May 2026 Lib Dem 49.2%vs Conservative 21.6% | Lib Dem share -2.9pp | - |
| Northchurch | Lib Dem 57.2%vs Conservative 25.9% | 2023 Lib Dem 70.2%vs Conservative 21.2% | - | 43.5% |
| Redbourn | Lib Dem 49.9%vs Conservative 31.9% | May 2026 Others 39.7%vs Reform 20.6% | Lib Dem→Others +36.7pp | - |
| Sandridge & Wheathampstead | Lib Dem 48.7%vs Conservative 32.1% | May 2026 Lib Dem 41.9%vs Conservative 23.9% | Lib Dem share -6.8pp | - |
| Tring Central | Lib Dem 52.2%vs Conservative 28.1% | 2023 Lib Dem 59.2%vs Conservative 21.9% | - | 39.5% |
| Tring East | Lib Dem 46.1%vs Conservative 32.8% | 2023 Lib Dem 51.0%vs Conservative 38.2% | - | 49.9% |
| Tring West and Rural | Lib Dem 51.7%vs Conservative 27.8% | 2023 Lib Dem 53.1%vs Conservative 27.2% | - | 42.7% |
| Watling | Lib Dem 42.5%vs Conservative 33.6% | 2023 Conservative 47.4%vs Lib Dem 35.4% | - | 32.8% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Harpenden and Berkhamsted at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Harpenden and Berkhamsted at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con hold | Peter Lilley Hitchin and Harpenden MP | 13.6% | 54.6% | 26.7% | 15,271 | 74.1% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | Peter Lilley Hitchin and Harpenden MP | 20.6% | 56.9% | 8.1% | 20,055 | 68.9%-5.2 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | Bim Afolami Hitchin and Harpenden MP | 32.6% | 53.1% | 10.6% | 12,031 | 77.4%+8.5 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Bim Afolami Hitchin and Harpenden MP, pre-review boundary | 10.6% | 52.3% | 25.3% | 15,044 | 77.8% |
| 2024 | LD gain from Con | Victoria Collins | 7.5% | 30.5% | 50.2% | 10,708 | 75.2%-2.6 |
Harpenden and Berkhamsted was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Hitchin and Harpenden (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Harpenden and Berkhamsted
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Harpenden and Berkhamsted. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied75.3 / 74.5vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate51.8 / 45.1vs 33.7
- ↓Under 3522.0 / 21.9vs 30.2
- ↑Graduate51.8 / 51.5vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied75.3 / 72.3vs 61.9
- ↓No quals9.9 / 10.9vs 18.0
- ↑Owner-occupied75.3 / 72.0vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate51.8 / 44.2vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent12.9 / 14.0vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied75.3 / 75.2vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate51.8 / 43.5vs 33.7
- ↓No quals9.9 / 10.5vs 18.0
- ↑Owner-occupied75.3 / 75.2vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent12.9 / 12.9vs 20.2
- ↑Graduate51.8 / 43.1vs 33.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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