Constituency profile

Bromley and Biggin Hill

London · Borough constituency · Bromley borough

Peter Fortune MP
Sitting MP

Peter Fortune

Conservative

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
London
Borough constituency, Bromley council
Last 5 GE winners
CCCCC
Conservative 5/5
EU referendum 2016
51.3% Leave
UK average 51.9%; -0.6pp below mean
Current outlook
Conservative +9.6pp
vs Reform UK 27.4%
LondonBrexit-marginalGraduate-heavy

About the Bromley and Biggin Hill constituency

Bromley and Biggin Hill is a borough constituency in London. The sitting MP is Peter Fortune (Conservative), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 34.0% to 33.4% for Labour, a majority of 302 votes on a 66.2% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 37.0% and Reform UK on 27.4%, a margin of 9.6 points.

Who lives in Bromley and Biggin Hill? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
51.3%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
42.5%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
13.0%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
72.1%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
27.1%
UK average ~36%
Median age
41.3
UK median ~40
Age 65+
21.6%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
27.1%
UK average ~28%

How did Bromley and Biggin Hill vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Con hold · majority 302 votes (0.6pp) · turnout 66.2%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Bromley and Biggin Hill

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Bromley and Biggin Hill within Bromley

Bromley and Biggin Hill sits entirely within Bromley Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seatProjection
Bromley
57 LSOAs
100%View projection ›

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
Bickley & SundridgeConservative 36.2%vs Labour 31.4%May 2026 Conservative 52.0%vs Reform 16.9%
Conservative share
+15.8pp
51.3%
Biggin HillConservative 36.6%vs Labour 25.9%May 2026 Reform 47.4%vs Conservative 35.8%
Conservative→Reform
+13.3pp
54.0%
Bromley Common & HolwoodLabour 35.4%vs Conservative 32.3%May 2026 Conservative 38.3%vs Reform 28.4%
Labour→Conservative
+15.3pp
47.1%
Bromley TownConservative 30.5%vs Labour 30.2%May 2026 Lib Dem 36.4%vs Conservative 25.9%
Conservative→Lib Dem
+13.0pp
46.5%
DarwinConservative 48.7%vs Reform 20.1%May 2026 Conservative 49.6%vs Reform 37.4%
Conservative share
+1.0pp
55.4%
Hayes & Coney HallConservative 35.6%vs Labour 34.4%May 2026 Conservative 53.8%vs Reform 21.7%
Conservative share
+18.2pp
56.8%
PlaistowLabour 41.2%vs Conservative 30.4%May 2026 Conservative 29.7%vs Labour 24.8%
Labour→Conservative
+7.8pp
45.5%
Shortlands & Park LangleyLabour 41.0%vs Conservative 36.5%May 2026 Conservative 46.1%vs Reform 15.7%
Labour→Conservative
+17.9pp
53.8%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Bromley and Biggin Hill at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Bromley and Biggin Hill at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010predecessorCon holdBob Stewart Beckenham MP14.5%57.9%20.6%3.3% UKIP1.3%2.6%17,78472.0%
2015predecessorCon holdBob Stewart Beckenham MP19.4%57.3%6.9%12.5% UKIP3.8%-18,47172.4%+0.4
2017predecessorCon holdBob Stewart Beckenham MP30.1%59.3%7.9%-2.7%-15,08776.0%+3.6
2019notionalConservative winnerBob Stewart Beckenham MP, pre-review boundary25.1%54.4%16.0%-3.7%0.8%14,38069.7%
2024Con holdPeter Fortune33.4%34.0%9.3%17.5% Ref5.5%0.2%30266.2%-3.5

Bromley and Biggin Hill was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Beckenham (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Bromley and Biggin Hill

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Bromley and Biggin Hill. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

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