St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire
East of England · County constituency
About the St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire constituency
St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire is a county constituency in the East of England. The sitting MP is Ian Sollom (Liberal Democrat), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats won with 36.9% to 28.2% for the Conservatives, a majority of 4,621 votes on a 67.7% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Liberal Democrats on 39.5% and Reform UK on 23.5%, a margin of 16.0 points.
Who lives in St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire within South Cambridgeshire and Huntingdonshire
St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire crosses council boundaries: South Cambridgeshire (55%), Huntingdonshire (45%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| South Cambridgeshire | 55% | View projection › |
| Huntingdonshire | 45% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bar Hill | Conservative 39.9%vs Lib Dem 30.1% | May 2026 Lib Dem 38.3%vs Conservative 25.8% | Conservative→Lib Dem +11.1pp | 46.4% |
| Caldecote | Lib Dem 46.3%vs Conservative 26.6% | May 2026 Lib Dem 43.8%vs Reform 20.8% | Lib Dem share -2.4pp | 49.6% |
| Cambourne | Lib Dem 40.1%vs Conservative 28.1% | May 2026 Lib Dem 40.5%vs Conservative 25.7% | Lib Dem share +0.3pp | 42.1% |
| Caxton & Papworth | Lib Dem 34.8%vs Conservative 32.5% | May 2026 Lib Dem 45.6%vs Reform 22.2% | Lib Dem share +10.8pp | 46.8% |
| Fenstanton | Lib Dem 34.9%vs Conservative 33.1% | May 2026 Lib Dem 38.2%vs Conservative 32.7% | Lib Dem share +3.3pp | 44.8% |
| Girton | Lib Dem 39.2%vs Conservative 28.9% | May 2026 Lib Dem 53.2%vs Conservative 15.9% | Lib Dem share +14.0pp | - |
| Great Paxton | Conservative 36.4%vs Lib Dem 36.1% | May 2026 Lib Dem 48.2%vs Conservative 31.8% | Conservative→Lib Dem +8.3pp | 51.8% |
| Histon & Impington | Lib Dem 42.5%vs Conservative 21.3% | May 2026 Lib Dem 44.9%vs Green 31.7% | Lib Dem share +2.3pp | - |
| Longstanton | Lib Dem 48.8%vs Conservative 22.4% | May 2026 Lib Dem 41.5%vs Conservative 19.5% | Lib Dem share -7.3pp | - |
| Over & Willingham | Lib Dem 44.5%vs Conservative 25.9% | May 2026 Lib Dem 45.9%vs Reform 23.0% | Lib Dem share +1.3pp | - |
| St Neots East | Lib Dem 33.1%vs Conservative 22.6% | May 2026 Green 61.0%vs Reform 16.5% | Lib Dem→Green +37.4pp | 39.7% |
| St Neots Eatons | Conservative 29.0%vs Lib Dem 27.6% | May 2026 Lib Dem 35.7%vs Reform 32.5% | Conservative→Lib Dem +10.8pp | 41.5% |
| St Neots Eynesbury | Lib Dem 29.1%vs Conservative 26.9% | May 2026 Reform 32.4%vs Others 27.3% | Lib Dem→Reform +12.7pp | 35.0% |
| St Neots Priory Park & Little Paxton | Lib Dem 32.2%vs Conservative 28.8% | May 2026 Lib Dem 34.2%vs Reform 22.7% | Lib Dem share +2.0pp | 43.3% |
| Swavesey | Conservative 35.2%vs Lib Dem 30.1% | May 2026 Lib Dem 36.7%vs Conservative 32.3% | Conservative→Lib Dem +4.8pp | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con hold | Andrew Lansley South Cambridgeshire MP | 10.2% | 47.4% | 34.1% | 7,838 | 74.8% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | Heidi Allen South Cambridgeshire MP | 17.6% | 51.1% | 15.2% | 20,594 | 73.1%-1.7 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | Heidi Allen South Cambridgeshire MP | 27.2% | 51.8% | 18.6% | 15,952 | 76.2%+3.1 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Anthony Browne South Cambridgeshire MP, pre-review boundary | 18.8% | 51.3% | 26.8% | 12,250 | 67.0% |
| 2024 | LD gain from Con | Ian Sollom | 13.1% | 28.2% | 36.9% | 4,621 | 67.7%+0.7 |
St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat South Cambridgeshire (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Graduate42.3 / 41.8vs 33.7
- ↓Leave45.8 / 44.8vs 53.2
- ↑Employed64.4 / 66.1vs 57.3
- ↑Employed64.4 / 65.2vs 57.3
- ↑Graduate42.3 / 40.5vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied68.3 / 68.6vs 61.9
- ↑Employed64.4 / 64.2vs 57.3
- ↑Graduate42.3 / 40.1vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied68.3 / 67.8vs 61.9
- ↓Leave45.8 / 44.5vs 53.2
- ↑Employed64.4 / 65.3vs 57.3
- ↑Owner-occupied68.3 / 67.9vs 61.9
- ↓Leave45.8 / 46.4vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate42.3 / 40.4vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied68.3 / 71.9vs 61.9
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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