Tunbridge Wells
South East · County constituency · Tunbridge Wells borough
About the Tunbridge Wells constituency
Tunbridge Wells is a county constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Mike Martin (Liberal Democrat), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats won with 43.6% to 27.6% for the Conservatives, a majority of 8,687 votes on a 68.9% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Liberal Democrats on 43.3% and Reform UK on 22.6%, a margin of 20.6 points.
Who lives in Tunbridge Wells? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Tunbridge Wells vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Tunbridge Wells
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Tunbridge Wells within Tunbridge Wells
Tunbridge Wells sits entirely within Tunbridge Wells Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Tunbridge Wells | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Culverden | Lib Dem 48.7%vs Conservative 24.6% | May 2026 Lib Dem 49.5%vs Conservative 24.2% | Lib Dem share +0.7pp | - |
| Hawkhurst, Sandhurst & Benenden | Lib Dem 37.0%vs Conservative 36.2% | May 2026 Others 31.7%vs Conservative 30.0% | Lib Dem→Others +28.1pp | - |
| High Brooms | Lib Dem 32.9%vs Conservative 24.8% | 2024 Labour 55.9%vs Lib Dem 17.0% | - | 32.4% |
| Paddock Wood | Lib Dem 35.2%vs Conservative 32.0% | May 2026 Lib Dem 39.4%vs Reform 29.1% | Lib Dem share +4.2pp | - |
| Pantiles | Lib Dem 54.2%vs Conservative 24.0% | May 2026 Lib Dem 41.0%vs Conservative 30.6% | Lib Dem share -13.2pp | - |
| Park | Lib Dem 39.2%vs Conservative 29.1% | May 2026 Lib Dem 48.2%vs Reform 16.6% | Lib Dem share +9.0pp | - |
| Pembury & Capel | Lib Dem 67.7%vs Conservative 20.9% | May 2026 Others 29.7%vs Lib Dem 29.1% | Lib Dem→Others +34.1pp | - |
| Rusthall & Speldhurst | Lib Dem 45.0%vs Conservative 22.6% | May 2026 Lib Dem 34.1%vs Conservative 20.5% | Lib Dem share -10.9pp | - |
| Sherwood | Lib Dem 34.4%vs Conservative 29.3% | May 2026 Lib Dem 35.1%vs Reform 24.5% | Lib Dem share +0.7pp | - |
| St James' | Lib Dem 55.1%vs Conservative 17.2% | May 2026 Lib Dem 57.7%vs Reform 14.3% | Lib Dem share +2.7pp | - |
| St John's | Lib Dem 53.6%vs Conservative 19.0% | May 2026 Lib Dem 55.5%vs Reform 15.5% | Lib Dem share +2.0pp | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Tunbridge Wells at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Tunbridge Wells at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Greg Clark | 10.8% | 56.2% | 25.3% | 15,576 | 68.1% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Greg Clark | 14.2% | 58.7% | 8.4% | 22,874 | 70.0%+1.9 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Greg Clark | 26.5% | 56.9% | 9.9% | 16,465 | 72.5%+2.5 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Gregory Clark 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 14.8% | 55.1% | 28.3% | 14,645 | 72.7%+0.2 |
| 2024 | LD gain from Con | Mike Martin | 11.4% | 27.6% | 43.6% | 8,687 | 68.9%-3.8 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Tunbridge Wells
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Tunbridge Wells. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Leave44.6 / 46.3vs 53.2
- ↓No quals13.3 / 13.4vs 18.0
- ↑Graduate41.5 / 37.4vs 33.7
- ↑Graduate41.5 / 42.3vs 33.7
- ↓Leave44.6 / 45.8vs 53.2
- ↓No quals13.3 / 12.6vs 18.0
- ↑Graduate41.5 / 40.1vs 33.7
- ↓No quals13.3 / 13.4vs 18.0
- ↓Leave44.6 / 49.2vs 53.2
- ↓Leave44.6 / 44.5vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate41.5 / 38.9vs 33.7
- ↓No quals13.3 / 14.1vs 18.0
- ↓Leave44.6 / 47.8vs 53.2
- ↓No quals13.3 / 14.8vs 18.0
- ↓Under 3525.9 / 27.4vs 30.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.