Witney
South East · County constituency
About the Witney constituency
Witney is a county constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Charlie Maynard (Liberal Democrat), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats won with 41.2% to 32.6% for the Conservatives, a majority of 4,339 votes on a 67.0% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Liberal Democrats on 35.0% and the Conservatives on 26.3%, a margin of 8.7 points.
Who lives in Witney? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Witney vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Witney
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Witney within West Oxfordshire and Vale of White Horse
Witney crosses council boundaries: West Oxfordshire (76%), Vale of White Horse (24%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| West Oxfordshire | 76% | View projection › |
| Vale of White Horse | 24% | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvescot and Filkins | Lib Dem 38.5%vs Conservative 36.6% | 2023 Conservative 47.1%vs Independent 20.2% | - | 42.5% |
| Ascott and Shipton | Lib Dem 50.0%vs Conservative 31.3% | May 2026 Lib Dem 45.9%vs Conservative 35.5% | Lib Dem share -4.0pp | - |
| Bampton and Clanfield | Lib Dem 41.1%vs Conservative 36.8% | May 2026 Lib Dem 40.1%vs Conservative 35.3% | Lib Dem share -1.0pp | - |
| Brize Norton and Shilton | Lib Dem 37.6%vs Conservative 35.7% | May 2026 Green 29.8%vs Conservative 23.9% | Lib Dem→Green +20.4pp | - |
| Burford | Lib Dem 46.0%vs Conservative 33.2% | May 2026 Conservative 39.5%vs Lib Dem 35.3% | Lib Dem→Conservative +8.6pp | - |
| Carterton North East | Lib Dem 40.0%vs Conservative 29.5% | May 2026 Conservative 41.3%vs Reform 23.0% | Lib Dem→Conservative +15.1pp | - |
| Carterton North West | Lib Dem 40.8%vs Conservative 31.5% | May 2026 Reform 38.3%vs Conservative 31.2% | Lib Dem→Reform +23.2pp | - |
| Carterton South | Conservative 36.7%vs Lib Dem 36.7% | May 2026 Conservative 37.5%vs Reform 31.8% | Conservative share +0.8pp | - |
| Ducklington | Lib Dem 36.0%vs Conservative 35.1% | May 2026 Conservative 41.9%vs Lib Dem 27.6% | Lib Dem→Conservative +7.6pp | - |
| Faringdon | Lib Dem 51.9%vs Conservative 25.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 67.9%vs Conservative 24.7% | - | 37.1% |
| Hailey, Minster Lovell and Leafield | Lib Dem 46.1%vs Conservative 33.6% | 2024 Lib Dem 43.8%vs Conservative 43.0% | - | - |
| Kingston Bagpuize | Lib Dem 50.0%vs Conservative 27.7% | 2023 Lib Dem 59.6%vs Conservative 40.4% | - | 38.4% |
| Milton-under-Wychwood | Lib Dem 45.8%vs Conservative 34.5% | 2024 Lib Dem 52.9%vs Conservative 38.6% | - | - |
| Standlake, Aston and Stanton Harcourt | Lib Dem 46.0%vs Conservative 34.0% | May 2026 Lib Dem 49.8%vs Conservative 26.2% | Lib Dem share +3.8pp | - |
| Thames | Lib Dem 48.9%vs Conservative 30.3% | 2023 Lib Dem 49.8%vs Conservative 35.1% | - | 44.1% |
| Watchfield & Shrivenham | Lib Dem 39.0%vs Conservative 34.5% | 2023 Green 54.1%vs Conservative 45.9% | - | 39.8% |
| Witney Central | Conservative 33.2%vs Lib Dem 29.7% | 2024 Labour 52.6%vs Conservative 34.1% | - | - |
| Witney East | Conservative 34.4%vs Lib Dem 30.4% | May 2026 Conservative 34.9%vs Lib Dem 22.6% | Conservative share +0.5pp | - |
| Witney North | Lib Dem 40.0%vs Conservative 30.8% | 2024 Green 31.3%vs Lib Dem 27.1% | - | - |
| Witney South | Conservative 35.1%vs Lib Dem 31.2% | May 2026 Conservative 32.2%vs Reform 23.2% | Conservative share -2.8pp | - |
| Witney West | Lib Dem 37.9%vs Conservative 34.4% | 2024 Conservative 41.7%vs Lib Dem 34.9% | - | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Witney at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Witney at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | David Cameron | 13.0% | 58.8% | 19.4% | 22,740 | 73.3% |
| 2015 | Con hold | David Cameron | 17.2% | 60.2% | 6.8% | 25,155 | 73.3%+0.0 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Robert Courts | 20.7% | 55.5% | 20.4% | 21,241 | 73.6%+0.3 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Robert Courts 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 15.4% | 58.1% | 26.0% | 15,674 | 69.7%-3.9 |
| 2024 | LD gain from Con | Charles Maynard | 9.4% | 32.6% | 41.2% | 4,339 | 67.0%-2.7 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Witney
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Witney. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Employed64.4 / 63.7vs 57.3
- ↓Leave46.3 / 47.8vs 53.2
- ↓No quals13.4 / 14.8vs 18.0
- ↓Leave46.3 / 44.6vs 53.2
- ↓No quals13.4 / 13.3vs 18.0
- ↑Employed64.4 / 61.2vs 57.3
- ↑Employed64.4 / 62.9vs 57.3
- ↓Leave46.3 / 51.0vs 53.2
- ↑Employed64.4 / 64.2vs 57.3
- ↓No quals13.4 / 13.4vs 18.0
- ↓Leave46.3 / 49.2vs 53.2
- ↑Employed64.4 / 65.3vs 57.3
- ↓Leave46.3 / 44.5vs 53.2
- ↓No quals13.4 / 14.1vs 18.0
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.