Constituency profile

Worcester

West Midlands · Borough constituency · Worcester borough

Tom Collins MP
Sitting MP

Tom Collins

Labour

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
West Midlands
Borough constituency, Worcester council
Last 5 GE winners
CCCCL
Conservative 4/5, Labour 1/5
EU referendum 2016
53.7% Leave
UK average 51.9%; +1.8pp above mean
Current outlook
Labour +11.8pp
vs Reform UK 21.9%
MidlandsBrexit-marginal

About the Worcester constituency

Worcester is a borough constituency in the West Midlands. The sitting MP is Tom Collins (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 40.5% to 25.0% for the Conservatives, a majority of 7,116 votes on a 61.4% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 33.6% and Reform UK on 21.9%, a margin of 11.8 points.

Who lives in Worcester? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
53.7%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
33.7%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
17.4%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
61.4%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
37.5%
UK average ~36%
Median age
39.8
UK median ~40
Age 65+
21.1%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
32.6%
UK average ~28%

How did Worcester vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab gain from Con · majority 7,116 votes (15.5pp) · turnout 61.4%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Worcester

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Worcester within Worcester

Worcester sits entirely within Worcester Council. Worcester was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
Worcester
64 LSOAs
100%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
ArboretumLabour 45.1%vs Conservative 18.6%2024 Green 67.8%vs Labour 17.1%-37.0%
BattenhallConservative 29.1%vs Labour 28.4%2024 Green 67.5%vs Labour 16.4%-43.7%
CathedralLabour 48.0%vs Conservative 21.6%2024 Labour 41.7%vs Green 34.8%-35.8%
ClainesConservative 27.8%vs Labour 27.5%2024 Lib Dem 61.3%vs Conservative 16.3%-44.5%
NunneryLabour 47.7%vs Conservative 22.6%2024 Labour 47.4%vs Conservative 22.8%-36.4%
Rainbow HillLabour 49.3%vs Conservative 19.4%2024 Labour 46.1%vs Green 40.8%-25.1%
St ClementLabour 35.0%vs Conservative 28.9%2024 Green 46.3%vs Conservative 33.9%-40.6%
St Peter's ParishConservative 34.0%vs Labour 30.4%2024 Green 47.0%vs Lib Dem 22.8%-44.3%
St StephenLabour 31.0%vs Conservative 24.6%2024 Green 69.4%vs Conservative 16.1%-37.6%
Warndon & Elbury ParkLabour 44.9%vs Conservative 19.8%2024 Labour 52.7%vs Conservative 24.6%-25.7%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Worcester at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Worcester at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010Con gain from LabRobin Walker33.4%39.5%19.4%2.8% UKIP1.5%3.3%2,98267.2%
2015Con holdRobin Walker34.0%45.3%3.4%12.8% UKIP4.1%0.4%5,64668.6%+1.4
2017Con holdRobin Walker43.2%48.1%3.4%2.6% UKIP2.4%0.3%2,50869.6%+1.0
2019notionalConservative winnerRobin Walker 2019 MP, pre-review boundary37.5%50.8%7.2%-3.3%1.2%6,75868.8%-0.8
2024Lab gain from ConTom Collins40.5%25.0%8.7%14.6% Ref10.4%0.9%7,11661.4%-7.4

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Worcester

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Worcester. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.