Constituency profile

Maidstone and Malling

South East · County constituency

Helen Grant MP
Sitting MP

Helen Grant

Conservative

First elected May 2010

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
South East
County constituency
Last 5 GE winners
CCCCC
Conservative 5/5
EU referendum 2016
57.6% Leave
UK average 51.9%; +5.7pp above mean
Current outlook
Reform UK +7.9pp
Vulnerability score 7/10 (Conservative projected to lose)
SouthernLeave-leaning

About the Maidstone and Malling constituency

Maidstone and Malling is a county constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Helen Grant (Conservative), first elected in May 2010. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 30.5% to 26.9% for Labour, a majority of 1,674 votes on a 60.7% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 31.6% and the Conservatives on 23.7%, a margin of 7.9 points - a projected change of hands from the Conservatives.

Who lives in Maidstone and Malling? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
57.6%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
31.0%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
16.5%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
63.6%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
34.3%
UK average ~36%
Median age
39.4
UK median ~40
Age 65+
20.6%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
30.7%
UK average ~28%

How did Maidstone and Malling vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Con hold · majority 1,674 votes (3.6pp) · turnout 60.7%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Maidstone and Malling

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Maidstone and Malling within Maidstone and Tonbridge and Malling

Maidstone and Malling crosses council boundaries: Maidstone (68%), Tonbridge and Malling (32%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
Maidstone
41 LSOAs
68%
Tonbridge and Malling
19 LSOAs
32%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
Allington & BridgeConservative 32.1%vs Reform 21.3%2024 Green 57.0%vs Conservative 21.3%--
Aylesford North & North DownsConservative 38.3%vs Labour 31.9%2023 Conservative 47.0%vs Labour 23.6%-38.6%
Aylesford South & DittonConservative 38.2%vs Labour 22.3%2023 Conservative 52.5%vs Lib Dem 38.6%-31.1%
Barming Heath & TestonConservative 32.9%vs Reform 24.5%2024 Green 32.9%vs Lib Dem 27.6%--
Birling, Leybourne & RyarshConservative 37.3%vs Lib Dem 18.7%2023 Lib Dem 59.9%vs Conservative 36.1%-35.8%
East Malling, West Malling & OffhamLabour 29.9%vs Conservative 28.8%2023 Lib Dem 73.3%vs Conservative 26.7%-38.1%
Fant & OakwoodLabour 40.1%vs Conservative 21.5%2024 Others 37.5%vs Labour 19.1%--
High StreetLabour 29.1%vs Reform 24.9%2024 Lib Dem 38.7%vs Green 29.1%--
Kings HillConservative 42.7%vs Labour 24.2%2023 Conservative 59.8%vs Green 17.3%-30.0%
Loose & LintonConservative 34.7%vs Reform 22.3%2024 Lib Dem 59.9%vs Conservative 20.1%--
Penenden HeathLabour 29.7%vs Conservative 27.5%2024 Lib Dem 58.2%vs Conservative 20.7%--

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Maidstone and Malling at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Maidstone and Malling at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010predecessorCon holdHelen Grant Maidstone and The Weald MP9.7%48.0%36.0%3.3% UKIP1.3%1.6%5,88968.9%
2015predecessorCon holdHelen Grant Maidstone and The Weald MP10.5%45.5%24.1%15.9% UKIP2.8%1.3%10,70968.3%-0.6
2017predecessorCon holdHelen Grant Maidstone and The Weald MP22.1%56.4%16.3%3.1% UKIP1.7%0.3%17,72368.7%+0.4
2019notionalConservative winnerHelen Grant Maidstone and The Weald MP, pre-review boundary18.4%58.4%18.6%-3.8%0.8%19,44866.9%
2024Con holdHelen Grant26.9%30.5%13.7%20.1% Ref8.0%0.8%1,67460.7%-6.2

Maidstone and Malling was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Maidstone and The Weald (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Maidstone and Malling

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Maidstone and Malling. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

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